By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-04 10:50:16 | Updated at 2026-06-08 05:31:53
3 days ago
Can Spain follow up their Euro 2024 success with a second FIFA World Cup crown? They’ll have to progress through Group H first, with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde standing in their way.
The Opta supercomputer predicts Spain will be crowned 2026 FIFA World Cup champions, with the reigning European champions lifting the trophy in 16.2% of its 10,000 pre-tournament simulations. Their campaign begins against debutants Cape Verde on 15 June, while Saudi Arabia and Uruguay complete Group H.
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s World Cup predictions to see how the group could play out.
World Cup Group H Predictions
- Spain have a 98.5% chance of reaching the knockout stages, the highest of any side at the tournament.
- Uruguay, at 84.3%, are deemed the team most likely to join Spain in the next round from Group H.
- Saudi Arabia made it beyond the first round in 39.9% of simulations, while Cape Verde did so in 32.9%.
Spain may be rated as the most likely winner by the Opta supercomputer, but their World Cup record is surprisingly average outside of their triumph in 2010.
In fact, 2010 remains the only time Spain have at least reached the semi-finals of the tournament in their last 14 participations. Since then, they have been eliminated at the group stage once (2014) and twice in the round of 16 (2018, 2022).
So why are they rated so highly? Well, they are the reigning UEFA European Champions after going all the way in 2024, and they are currently unbeaten in 31 competitive matches, the nation’s longest ever run of non-friendlies without defeat.
Should they lift the trophy this summer, Spain would become the fourth nation to simultaneously hold both the European Championship and the World Cup after West Germany (Euro 1972, World Cup 1974), France (World Cup 1998, Euro 2000) and Spain themselves (Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012).
One oddity this summer is that Spain’s squad does not feature a single Real Madrid player – the first time they have ever gone to a World Cup without a representative from Los Blancos.
A concern for head coach Luis de la Fuente is the fitness of Lamine Yamal, who tore his left hamstring on 22 April and missed the rest of Barcelona’s campaign. Key players such as Nico Williams and Mikel Merino are also fitness concerns.
Despite those doubts, Spain have a 98.5% chance of reaching the knockout stages, the highest of any side at the tournament, and a 75.6% chance of topping Group H.
Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay are expected to be Spain’s toughest opponent during the group stages. They reached the knockout stages in 84.3% of simulations and topped the group in 18.9%.
Uruguay, who were world champions in 1930 and 1950, are one of only six teams to have won the World Cup multiple times, alongside Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina and France. Nonetheless, they do not carry as much threat as they once did, and their best finish since 1950 is fourth place, most recently achieved in 2010.
This will be Bielsa’s third World Cup as a head coach, and he is leading a third different nation. He was knocked out during the group stages with Argentina in 2002 and in the round of 16 with Chile in 2010.
Uruguay very much resemble a typical Bielsa side, and they will make any opponent work hard for a win. They recorded 147 high turnovers in the CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 qualifiers, at least 26 more than any other nation, ahead of Argentina’s 121 in second.
Saudi Arabia have the next best chance of navigating the group stage, progressing 39.9% of the time. They have only done so in one of their six previous appearances, though it was at the 1994 tournament in the United States, reaching the round of 16.
Their overall World Cup record is poor: they have lost 68% of their matches at the tournament (13/19), the highest loss rate of any nation to have played at least 15 games.
Saudi Arabia provided arguably the most surprising result in World Cup history in 2022 when defeating eventual champions Argentina 2-1 despite trailing at half-time. Their winner was a stunning effort from Salem Al Dawsari, the reigning AFC Player of the Year.
Al Dawsari is one of four players to win the AFC Player of the Year award twice (2023 & 2025), alongside Hidetoshi Nakata (1997 & 1998), Server Djeparov (2008 & 2011), and Akram Afif (2019 & 2023) – and the only Saudi player to achieve this.
World Cup debutants Cape Verde complete Group H, but expectations must remain measured, with a 32.9% chance of progressing to the knockout stages. They would be the first African team since Ghana in 2006 to progress from their group in their maiden appearance.
Cape Verde reached their first World Cup finals tournament by winning six of their final seven matches in qualifying, topping a group that included Cameroon.
*All prediction data is accurate as of 4 June 2026.
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