Would US election chaos be an opportunity for mainland China to attack Taiwan?

As US voters head to the polls, concerns are mounting about a repeat of the chaos that followed the American presidential election four years ago, especially if a defeated former president Donald Trump refuses to concede.

Many have warned of the risks of violence that occurred at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, which they say would further erode trust in US leadership and embolden American adversaries, notably Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Some pundits have singled out China as potentially the biggest benefactor of such chaos, or the perception of chaos, as veteran observer Isaac Stone Fish put it.

He argued that the struggle over the US presidency would be “a wonderfully opportunistic window” for Beijing to exploit a power vacuum and push for changes Washington opposes, such as a military attack on Taiwan.

There is little doubt that Beijing sees election chaos as a failure of US democratic institutions and probably rejoices in anything that undermines America’s standing in the world and damages its alliances.

Political turbulence over a drawn-out or contested vote count in key battleground states would almost certainly plunge the US into another constitutional crisis, which for China and its emerging anti-West coalition is further evidence of America’s accelerating decline.