By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-21 16:44:48 | Updated at 2025-03-21 21:25:27
4 hours ago
Sonia Bompastor suffered her first defeat as Chelsea coach against Manchester City in the UEFA Women’s Champions League in midweek. Can she maintain her unbeaten record in the Women’s Super League when the teams meet again on Sunday? Find out in our Man City vs Chelsea prediction.
On Sunday, the Women’s Super League will host the third of four straight meetings between Chelsea and Manchester City.
When the scheduling stars aligned for these two rivals to meet four times in 12 days across three competitions, it was clear there would be drama.
Chelsea drew first blood, winning 2-1 to lift the League Cup at Pride Park last weekend, with a Yui Hasegawa own goal proving decisive.
That victory extended the Blues’ unbeaten run to 31 games across all competitions (W29 D2) and put them on the verge of recording the longest unbeaten run by any WSL team. All they needed to do was avoid defeat versus Man City in the Champions League four days later.
City, who had relieved Gareth Taylor of his managerial duties just five days before the League Cup final and brought back Nick Cushing on an interim basis, denied them that slice of history in the first leg of their quarter-final tie.
Vivianne Miedema scored twice as City put a huge dent in Chelsea’s hopes of finally winning the Champions League – a trophy that evaded them under Emma Hayes and is a major objective under her successor Sonia Bompastor.
While it’s only half-time in that tie, with the second leg to be played at Stamford Bridge on Thursday, the Blues will need a dramatic comeback to keep their European aspirations alive.
Before then, Chelsea’s hopes of going unbeaten throughout the 2024-25 WSL campaign face a major test, with City bidding to halt another potentially historic run.
Close but No Cigar – Chelsea Run Ends
Chelsea matched the longest unbeaten streak in all competitions by a WSL team with their 31-game run between May last year and Wednesday’s quarter-final first-leg defeat.
The streak equalled a record set by Chelsea themselves between April 2019 and September 2020, providing a reminder of their dominance during the Hayes era.
The Blues’ latest run began with an 8-1 WSL thrashing of Bristol City in May 2024 and ended with them lifting the League Cup for a third time in their history last weekend.
Chelsea won 29 games during this run, bettering the 25 wins they managed in their previous record streak. They conceded just 20 goals across the 31 games, matching the total they conceded on their previous run, while netting 97 goals.
The only other club to come close to Chelsea’s record is Man City, who enjoyed a 27-match unbeaten run (W23 D4) in all competitions between April 2016 and April 2017.
Wednesday’s Champions League loss also represented the first chink in Chelsea’s armour under Bompastor, who had not tasted defeat since arriving from Lyon last year.
What Did We Learn in Midweek?
Both teams made changes for their second meeting in four days, with Khadija Shaw and Aoba Fujino injured while Miedema dropped to the City bench.
Even without those big names, Cushing’s team looked to take the game to Chelsea. With Jess Park, Kerolin and Lily Murphy joining Mary Fowler in attack, the Citizens registered 15 shots, landing eight on them target, albeit those attempts only generated 0.94 xG.
Bompastor also made two changes, with Keira Walsh and Aggie Beever-Jones coming in for Johanna Rytting Kaneryd and Sjoeke Nusken. Chelsea accumulated 1.08 xG from their 10 shots, with both teams hitting the woodwork twice each.
Bompastor’s alterations had a limited impact, with Chelsea inefficient in attack. Despite recording 24 touches in the City area to just 14 for their opponents at the other end, they had fewer shots overall.
City, meanwhile, had the luxury of bringing on Miedema as a 60th-minute substitute, and she had the most shots on target (3), touches in the opposition box (6) and joint-most shots (3) among City players despite only playing 30 minutes.
Miedema was not the only City forward to impress, with Fowler creating a game-leading four chances.
While City trail Chelsea by a huge 12-point margin in the WSL, their midweek meeting provided a timely reminder of the depth available to Cushing, and of City’s ability to compete in any one-off match.
Man City vs Chelsea: The Third Instalment
As mentioned, this will be the third of four meetings between Man City and Chelsea in all competitions in March, the first time two top-flight clubs have met four times in a single month in the WSL era.
City were beaten 2-0 when they last met Chelsea in the league, back in November. They had previously been on a three-match unbeaten streak against the Blues in the WSL (W2 D1).
Sunday’s game will take place at the Etihad Stadium, where City were unbeaten in the WSL (W3 D1) prior to losing 4-2 to neighbours Manchester United in January. This will be their first time hosting Chelsea at the venue.
Cushing is, of course, the only manager to inflict defeat on Bompastor’s Blues in any competition this season, and he also boasts five WSL wins against Chelsea in his career – no manager has beaten them more often in the competition, with David Parker also doing so on five occasions.
In Miedema, City also have a player with a knack for inflicting damage on Chelsea. She has been directly involved in nine goals in 10 WSL appearances against Chelsea (five goals, four assists), and could become just the fourth player to be involved in 10 or more goals against them in the competition, after Toni Duggan (13), Beth Mead (12) and Kim Little (11).
Chelsea may have lost their unbeaten run across all competitions, but they are yet to taste defeat in 16 league fixtures under Bompastor. They are unbeaten in each of their last 19 WSL games (W17 D2) stretching back to Hayes’ final few weeks in charge last year.
The last team to go 20 consecutive matches without defeat in the competition were Chelsea themselves between February 2019 and January 2021, when they set the longest unbeaten run in WSL history at 33 games.
Chelsea are also the only unbeaten team remaining in England’s top two tiers this season (P16 W14 D2), and the last team to avoid defeat in their opening 17 games of a WSL campaign were City in 2018-19 (first 19).
Man City vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes the runaway WSL leaders slight favourites, but City are certainly not to be discounted after their midweek heroics.
Chelsea won 38.6% of our pre-match simulations, with City assigned a 35.4% chance of victory and 26% of projections ending level.
Chelsea are given a 98.8% chance of retaining their title in our season predictions, compared to Arsenal’s 1.1% hopes and Man Utd’s 0.1%, while City finish in their current position of fourth in 56.8% of scenarios.
The title race may be all but over, but Sunday’s game represents one of the biggest obstacles Chelsea must navigate if they are to complete an unbeaten WSL campaign, while City will hope to land a psychological blow before the second instalment of their European tie.
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