By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-15 12:09:25 | Updated at 2024-11-15 15:00:25
2 hours ago
Sonia Bompastor could become the first coach in WSL history to open her tenure with seven straight wins on Saturday, but Chelsea face a difficult test against Manchester City.
Sonia Bompastor could hardly have wished for a better start to her Chelsea reign, but her Blues will face their toughest test yet next time out. On Saturday, Stamford Bridge will host Chelsea’s clash with Manchester City in a heavyweight tussle that could give an early indication as to where the title may be heading.
Bompastor is targeting a piece of history as she could become the first manager to win each of their first seven games in charge of a team in the WSL. If she felt any pressure when stepping into Emma Hayes’ shoes ahead of the new campaign, she is certainly not showing it.
Ahead of a crucial double-header against City and their neighbours Manchester United over the next two matchdays, Chelsea’s confidence should be sky-high. They have 23 goals in their six league outings this season, also winning each of their three games in the UEFA Women’s Champions League under Bompastor.
Chelsea also have a strong record in this fixture. They’ve won four of their last five home games against City in the WSL, though did lose their most recent such meeting 1-0 back in February, so Gareth Taylor’s visitors will think they have a chance again.
City, though, sit top of the table by a single point, and while last season’s away victory over Chelsea was rare, they are unbeaten in their last three WSL meetings with the Blues, with two wins.
Having missed out on the title on goal difference on the final day of last season, Taylor’s team will be determined to land an early blow against their direct rivals this weekend.
Goals Win Games… and Titles
With seven goals the margin of Chelsea’s most recent title triumph, Man City must be haunted by their inability to get across the line in 2023-24. Taylor and his players are determined not to experience a repeat of that heartbreaking near miss in 2024-25.
The City head coach told Opta Analyst exclusively in pre-season: “You would be surprised how strong it makes you and how mentally determined you become.
“Of course we will use that frustration, disappointment, really use it as energy for this season.”
Banishing that nightmare is high on their agenda. They have scored 16 goals in just seven matches this season (2.2 per game), but that still represents a marginal underperformance compared to their underlying figures, given they have generated 16.59 xG (2.37 xG per game).
However, if we compare City’s attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes’ free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.
City successfully got 183 of their 423 shots on target last term (43.2%), whereas this season they have hit the target with 47 of their 125 attempts (37.6%). Their shot conversion rate has also dropped from 14.4% to 12.8% and their big-chance conversion rate has fallen from 41.7% (30/72) to 37.0% (10/27).
So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea’s pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.
Man City might be able to point to some misfortune on that front, though, as their total xG figure is the highest in the league so far this term.
With 23 goals, Chelsea have greatly overperformed their 13.8 xG, with that +9.2 overperformance by far the biggest in the competition. The Blues have been incredibly efficient in front of goal, having the most shots on target (48) in the competition – one more than City (47) despite having 15 fewer shots overall.
Chelsea’s big-chance conversion rate of 60.9% is also the best in the WSL (14/23), as is their shot conversion rate (20.9%). By contrast, City’s 12.8% shot conversion rate ranks fourth.
Reliance on Shaw or Sharing the Load?
While City have not matched Chelsea’s ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season’s Golden Boot winner, Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw.
She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.8 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).
Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.6%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.
Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, Shaw also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).
Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15).
City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL’s all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.
Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.
However, despite her outstanding creative metrics, Hemp has underperformed her 3.26 xG, scoring twice from opportunities that should have resulted in at least one more goal.
Hemp has struggled to convert her big chances this term, only putting away two of the eight that have fallen their way, though both Jessica Park (two goals from 1.79 xG) and Jill Roord (three goals from 2.34 xG) should offer more support to Shaw.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have been successful at sharing the goals around this term. They have had 13 different goalscorers in the WSL in 2024-25, while City have only had six, ranking fourth, also behind Tottenham (eight) and Arsenal (seven).
Guro Reiten is Chelsea’s leading scorer with four goals in six games, overperforming her 3.0 xG, while she also leads the Blues for shots (18) and chances created (12), providing two assists.
Chelsea’s young talent has also come to the fore under their new boss. Aggie Beever-Jones is having a big impact despite only making two WSL starts, netting three times. Only Reiten has had more shots than Beever-Jones’ 14, while no Chelsea player has hit the target as many times as she has (nine).
Another player to find a new lease of life under Bompastor is Rytting Kaneryd, who leads all Chelsea players for goal contributions (five). The Sweden international also leads all of her teammates for involvements in open-play shot-ending sequences, with 33.
That collaborative approach has so far paid dividends for Chelsea. If City are to end the Blues’ five-year stranglehold on the WSL title, they may need to provide more support to Shaw.
Blues the Team to Beat?
After Chelsea’s magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer unsurprisingly views them as hot favourites to retain their crown.
The champions are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title again, compared to City’s 19.9%, with Taylor’s team finishing second in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.
The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. City would surely be content with a draw on the road, and they’re given a 22.1% chance of victory and a 23.4% chance of earning a draw.
Bompastor, meanwhile, is given a 54.5% likelihood of making WSL history by overseeing a seventh win in as many matches. Doing so would mark Chelsea out as the team to beat once more.
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