On November 20, 2024, the international oil markets displayed notable shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
Current spot prices indicate that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $68.95 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.63% from the previous day. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil is priced at $73.12 per barrel, down 0.26%.
Futures contracts also provide insight into market trends. The December 2024 WTI futures contract is priced at approximately $69.62, showing a slight increase of 0.55%.
In contrast, the December 2024 Brent futures contract stands at about $74.99, reflecting a decrease of 2.09%. These figures arise from a complex interplay of factors affecting the market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply may surpass demand by over 1 million barrels per day by 2025 if current production levels persist.
Increased output from non-OPEC countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada contributes to this surplus. China’s weakening demand further complicates the situation.
Oil Market Trends
The country has seen its oil consumption decline for six consecutive months, with growth expected to reach only 10% of last year’s levels. This slowdown contributes to a bearish sentiment in the market.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have historically influenced oil prices, but recent developments have eased concerns about supply disruptions. This shift has allowed prices to stabilize despite ongoing uncertainties.
OPEC+ has chosen to maintain existing production cuts instead of increasing output as planned for December 2024. This decision aims to support prices amid concerns about declining demand.
The next OPEC+ meeting on December 1 will be crucial in determining future production strategies. Additionally, economic indicators play a significant role in shaping market trends.
The U.S. dollar has strengthened, reaching its highest point in two years. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, adding downward pressure on prices.
Over the past year, WTI prices have decreased by approximately 13.23%, down from around $78.86 per barrel a year ago. Brent crude has also fallen by about 7.79% since the beginning of 2024.