Zelensky US Debacle, West Mocks Victory Plan; Rus Storms Vuhledar, Fall Imminent; Selidovo Retreat [PART 1 of my notes on 1 hr 11 min video]

Israel-Lebanon- First 10 minutes of video

10:29 Ukraine video portion begins

President Biden and President Zelensky meet today/tomorrow.

Mercouris believes that Zelensky has "massively overplayed his hand," (As Zelensky addresses UN Security Council, UN General Assembly).

Series of articles in MSM, including one in Bloomberg, which say American officials have seen Zelensky's 'Victory Plan' and are unimpressed by it. Nothing new in his plan - it's been described as more of a 'wish list' rather than a 'plan'.
The Pentagon (spokesmen) and Admiral Kirby at US National Security Coucil both reaffirm U.S. policy that the prohibition against using America's long range missiles against Russia remains in place. This comes prior to Biden/Zelensky meeting.

Mercouris thinks Zelensky must be aware of this information as he prepared to meet Biden. Zelensky had to doubt that he would get the agreement he had hoped for, despite the fact that the British are supporting his use of long range missiles (LRM).

Zelensky now knows his hoped for meeting with Trump will not happen. Mercouris notes Trump is too busy with the election. [ransomnote: I think after this video, Trump said he will meet with Zelensky]

Trump recently said the U.S. needs to get out of Ukraine, and that Biden/Harris brought uthe U.S. into the war in Ukraine and don't seem to have a plan to get out of it.

So the doors in the US are closing to Zelensky. Zelensky is knocking on the doors and they either don't open, or he's let in and escorted out again with the doors closing behind him.

There was a report today (9/26) perhaps in Bloomberg or Reuters (Mercouris isn't sure where he saw it) that western governments are very eager to get negotiations or deplomacy up and running between Ukraine/Russia to find a way to end it. There is some talk of reaching out to Putin himself at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil (ransomnote: Rio de Janeiro on 18-19 November 2024). Only the media is carrying stories about these discussions so there's no verification it they are true.

So it looks like all of Zelensky's plans to consolidate western support for his plan, including permission to use Long Range Missiles (LRM) and NATO membership, are failing - the doors are closing in his face. Zelensky's speech to the UN, reiterating his and Ukraine's positions, make it appear Zelensky is seeking a diplomatic solution without any negotiations.

Earlier today, The Guardian said is his strategy is to try to get the global south to turn on Russia, and browbeat or bully the Russians into capitulating, a strategy which Mercouris describes as a 'forlorn hope'.

17:37

Mercouris says Zelensky's strange, defiant behavior means that the doors are not just going to be closing in NY, D.C., but around the world. He seriously risks appearing intransigent and completely out of touch with the reality in Ukraine. And if Zelensky's purpose was, as Mercouris previously suggested, to obtain support/affirmation for him personally so he can face down his opponents in Kiev, and keep western support for him/Ukraine - he might end up achieving the opposite effect. He may convince people he's unrealistic, impossible, and people in Washington and Kiev etc. may decide it's time for him to go.

19:24

Zelensky's trip could turn out to be a diplomatic disaster, rather than the big triumph he hoped it would be. Mercouris thinks his decision to call his plan a 'Victory Plan' was extreme mistake and calls into question his grip on reality - no one believes the Ukraine can pull off a military victory. A Bloomberg articles said there is no pathway to victory set out in Zelensky's plan.

Various Ukrainian message places contain (Simplicitus' latest blog piece has a whole collection of tweets and messages there) complaints. Mercouris gets the impression the Ukrainians are tiring of their president and are losing whatever lingering confidence in him they have, and as far as they're concerned - he's only there because he IS there (i.e., it's too hard and destabilizing to remove him).

On the ground, the situation is catastrophic for Ukraine. A Ukrainian blogger (ransomnote: I can't spell her name) says Russians are close to establishing bridgheads near Karhkiv, Zaporozhnya, Kherson by the end of this year. The blogger writing about this said even if this happens, Ukraine must continue to fight on. Her words seem to conflict with the sentiments she's expressing. Mercouris can't see how the Ukraine could win the war if Russians do establish bridgeheads near those three cities and he thinks the blogger must know if it happens, then the writing is on the wall.

23:47

More Russian missile strikes on the Ukraine, including drone attacks. Mercouris suspects these are large Orion drones, ones like the American Reaper and Predator drones.

26:12

The Vuhledar high rise buildings were an important fortification for Ukraine for a long time - they have been destroyed. Supply lines to Vuhledar are cut.

By the way, in the past 24 hurs, there are extensive pictures of Russians with flags throughout Coal Mine #3 conflict area, and this indicates they must control or have strong fire control over the one remaining paved supply road to Vuhledar, and leading northward from that city to pass near south Donbas Coal Mine #3. It's quite possible Russian scout parties have already cut the road.

The Institute for the Study of War said the fall of Vuhledar won't make a difference given the Russians have already cut all the supply roads; Vuhledar has already lost its significance as a logistical hub. As far as Mercouris has been aware, Vuhledar has never been a logistical hub for the Ukrainian military; it's been a well protected/defended fortress which has withstood at least 5 Russian attacks, which has unbalanced/unhinged Russian offensives in this area of southwestern Donbas, and made it very very difficult for Russians to sort out logistics there.

So this is the importance of Vuhledar, even as it falls. It's capture will be deeply demoralizing for the Ukrainians given its prior endurance under attack. Some will see it as a formerly invicible fortress being breached and falling at a time when the rest of the war is already going against them.

30:27

Mercouris has seen the following in 3rd party sources, not official sources: Apparently one of the military units defending Vuhledar, the 46th Air Assault brigade, a paratroop force, is apparently fighting alongside the 92nd Brigade there. They have received an order, apparently and perhaps bitterly, that Vuhledar must be defended 'to the death' by Ukrainian troops until after the visit has ended. This 'visit' must be Zelensky's visit to the United States. Mercouris hasn't seen the message or the tone in which it was written, but the Ukrainian online places mentioning this content make him believe this is reliable information. Mercouris suspects the tone of the message was likely very bitter, that the soldiers in Vuhledar feel their Commander in Chief (Zelensky) is abandoning them in a battle in which he expects them to fight to the death for no other purpose than to maintain his prestige while his is in the United States. Mercouris thinks this will anger/demoralize the soldiers and their families.

For their part, the Russians are claiming there have been many surrendering in VUhledar. Mercouris has not seen photos - but if it is true, it makes sense. The time to have evacuated Vuhledar is gone (passed a week ago), the supply lines are cut and the Russians are storming the city. There's no place for the soldiers to go.

33:46