2027 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Jeremiah Smith Favored, Arch Manning Tumbles

For the fourth consecutive year, eighth time in nine years and 10th time in 12 years, a quarterback went No. 1 in the NFL Draft — Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders.

Will a team make it five years in a row in 2027? Or will Jeremiah Smith become the first wide receiver to go No. 1 since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996? 

Let's check out the 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Oct. 15. 

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Jeremiah Smith: +230
CJ Carr: +360 
Drew Mestemaker: +380
Arch Manning: +600 
Darian Mensah: +1000
Trinidad Chambliss: +1200 
Dante Moore: +2000
Austin Simmons: +2200

Here's what to know about the oddsboard:

A Wideout At No. 1? Could Jeremiah Smith be the first pick in the draft? He is now the favorite at +230. 

In Week 6 against Maryland, Smith was relatively quiet by his standards. That speaks to just how insane he’s been when four catches for 93 yards and two touchdowns qualifies as a quiet game.

Against Iowa, the week prior, Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns, completing the Ohio State triple crown by becoming the Buckeyes’ all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

That followed a Week 4 performance against Illinois in which he set career highs with 12 catches, 217 yards and four touchdowns. He became the fourth Big Ten receiver since 2000 to record at least 200 receiving yards and four touchdown catches in a game. He also tied Ohio State’s single-game receiving touchdown record, becoming the fifth Buckeye to catch four.

Smith has recorded at least 150 receiving yards in four of his six games this season: Ball State (151), Texas (164), Illinois (217) and Iowa (206). That ties Ohio State’s single-season record, set by David Boston in 1998. He’s also the only player this season with at least 200 receiving yards in back-to-back games and just the second in Big Ten history, joining Indiana’s Ty Fryfogle in 2020.

With two touchdowns in Saturday's "Big Noon Kickoff" matchup against No. 5 Indiana, Smith has the opportunity to pass Braylon Edwards for the most receiving touchdowns in Big Ten history. 

Can a receiver with that résumé climb all the way to No. 1? Smith might just be that generational.

Man(ning) of the Hour: Archie Manning went second in the 1971 NFL Draft. His son, Peyton, went first in the 1998 NFL Draft. Then his other son, Eli, went first in the 2004 NFL Draft. Will his grandson, Arch, be the next Manning to hear his name called at the top of the draft?  Arch served as a collegiate starter for the first time last season, leading the charge at Texas. He completed 61.4% of his passes, for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

However, as the season went on, Arch began to find his rhythm. He threw five interceptions in the Longhorns' first five games, but threw just two in their final eight contests. He also threw 15 TDs in those final eight games, in which Texas went 7-1. In Texas' bowl game win over Michigan, he threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns. 

However, through five games this season, Manning has been inconsistent. He has thrown for 1,122 yards, 67th among FBS quarterbacks, with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. That includes a pick-six and a costly interception that sealed Oklahoma’s win over Texas last week. But he has also shown he can deliver in big moments, leading Texas to two marquee wins: a dramatic comeback over Ohio State in Week 2 and a statement road victory over Tennessee in Week 4.

With several big tests ahead and a potential deep playoff run, Manning will have plenty of opportunities to shape his draft stock in the weeks to come as he currently sits at +600 to be the No. 1 overall pick. 

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