By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-10 14:01:55 | Updated at 2026-10-10 14:43:09
1 hour ago
ARGENTINA · POWER
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina is a federal republic of 23 provinces plus the city of Buenos Aires, with 45.9 million people in the 2022 census.
- —Who governs President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza holds 95 of 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 21 of 72 in the Senate, as of October 2026.
- —The capital region Buenos Aires province and city are home to 45% of Argentines, yet the 1988 tax-sharing law gives the province 19.93% of the provinces’ pool.
- —Who is left out INDEC counted 32.3% of urban residents and 44.5% of children under 15 below the poverty line in the first half of 2026.
- —Other power centres Peronist governors, the CGT union federation, family-controlled groups such as Techint, the Catholic Church and fast-growing evangelical churches all bargain with the president.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Javier Milei a 56.5% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election and Axel Kicillof 32.5% (10 October 2026, 9:20 a.m. ET).
- —Still open Whether Milei’s coalition holds through the 2027 election, and whether Washington offers fresh financial support after the 2025 swap line, remain open.
Power in Argentina matters to Washington, which backed President Javier Milei with a swap line of up to US$20 billion in 2025.
Yet Milei must bargain with Peronist governors and unions, family-owned industrial groups and churches, while a third of urban Argentines are poor.
Who Sits at the Top of Argentina Power
Javier Milei, a libertarian economist, has been Argentina’s president since December 2023. His party, La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances), stands for spending cuts, deregulation and a smaller state.
His sister Karina Milei is Secretary General of the Presidency and one of the most visible figures in Argentina power politics. In October 2026 she helped open the second plant of POSCO’s Sal de Oro lithium project in northwest Argentina, the Casa Rosada reported.
Diego Santilli, the Chief of Cabinet, joined her there with two provincial governors, Gustavo Sáenz of Salta and Raúl Jalil of Catamarca. Such events show the government courting governors as well as investors.
Congress is where presidential power meets its limits. As of October 2026, La Libertad Avanza holds 95 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
The Peronist bloc Unión por la Patria holds 92 seats, so small centrist and provincial blocs decide close votes. Peronism is the movement founded by Juan Perón in the 1940s, built on trade unions, welfare and a strong state.
In the 72-seat Senate, La Libertad Avanza and the Peronist Justicialista bloc have 21 senators each, as of October 2026. The centrist Radical Civic Union (UCR) has 10.
For a full map of ministers and parties, see Argentina Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026.
Buenos Aires Versus the Interior
Argentina’s map of power is lopsided. The 2022 census counted 45.9 million people, and 20.6 million of them lived in Buenos Aires province or the city of Buenos Aires.
The capital and the 24 districts around it, known as Greater Buenos Aires, held almost 14 million people. That is three in ten Argentines in one metropolitan area, which makes it the main prize in national campaigns.
Buenos Aires province is governed by Axel Kicillof, a Peronist whom betting markets rank as Milei’s main rival for 2027. In October 2026 he was still opening a training centre and announcing an aqueduct as governor, according to the provincial government.
Money is the governors’ main lever and their main weakness. Under the 1988 revenue-sharing law, Law 23,548, the national government keeps 42.34% of shared taxes and the provinces receive 54.66%.
Under that law Buenos Aires province gets 19.93% of the provinces’ pool, although it is home to 38% of all Argentines. Smaller provinces receive far more per resident, and each one elects three senators whose votes the president must win.
Neuquén and the Vaca Muerta Shale Boom
Neuquén, a Patagonian province of about 711,000 people in 2022, has become an energy power. Argentina pumped a record 926,925 barrels of oil a day in August 2026, according to Diario Río Negro.
Neuquén alone produced 685,316 barrels a day that month, almost all from Vaca Muerta, a vast shale rock formation. Poverty in the Neuquén-Plottier urban area stood at 19.6% in the first half of 2026, well below the national rate.
The Business Families and Corporate Groups
A handful of family-controlled groups sit close to political power, whoever governs. They bargain over tariffs, concessions and state contracts rather than votes.
The Techint group, headed by industrialist Paolo Rocca, makes steel pipes for the oil and gas industry through Tenaris. Tenaris began in 1948 as Siderca, then Argentina’s sole maker of weld-free pipes, according to Tenaris’s 2025 annual report.
That report, filed with US regulators, shows that San Faustin, Tenaris’s controlling shareholder, owned 66.13% of the shares at the end of 2025. Rocca handed the Tenaris chief executive job to Gabriel Podskubka in May 2026 but stayed on as chairman, La Nación reported.
Relations with Milei have soured. After a pipe tender, Milei mocked Rocca as ‘Don Chatarrín de los Tubitos Caros’, roughly ‘Mr Scrap Metal of Pricey Pipes’, iProfesional reported.
Techint was also absent from the government’s Argentina Week in Paris, held from 30 September to 2 October 2026. The quarrel shows that even the country’s main industrial group cannot take presidential favour for granted.
Eduardo Eurnekian’s Corporación América runs 35 of the country’s main airports through Aeropuertos Argentina. Administrative Decision 27/2026, published on 28 September 2026, extended that concession to 2049.
A further extension to 2056 depends on conditions, including proof of financing for US$600 million of works at Ezeiza, the main international airport.
Milei worked for years as chief economist of Eurnekian’s holding before entering politics, elDiarioAR noted. In Decree 1074/2026, published the same day, Milei stepped aside from matters involving the group, citing a past ‘professional link’.
The newer money is digital. Marcos Galperin founded Mercado Libre, an online marketplace and payments company, in 1999, starting from a garage in Buenos Aires.
Its e-commerce platform operates in 18 countries, according to its 2025 annual report to US regulators.
Galperin handed the chief executive job to Ariel Szarfsztejn on 1 January 2026 and became executive chairman, according to Infobae.
Unions and the Peronist Machine
The CGT, the General Confederation of Labour, is Argentina’s main union federation and the historic backbone of Peronism. As of October 2026 it is led by three co-leaders rather than a single chief.
They are Jorge Sola of the insurance workers, Cristian Jerónimo of the glass workers and Octavio Argüello of the truck drivers’ union, Camioneros. Each speaks for a different wing of the labour movement.
On 8 October 2026 the CGT marched to the national Industry Secretariat in Buenos Aires to demand protection for local factories. Jerónimo warned the government to change its economic model or face a deeper fight, Infobae reported.
Peronism’s other base is Greater Buenos Aires, the ring of working-class districts around the capital. INDEC measured poverty there at 36.9% in the first half of 2026, against 11.1% inside the city itself.
That gap, between a rich capital and its poorer suburbs, runs through Argentina power politics.
The Military After the Dictatorship
Argentina’s armed forces ran the country during the 1976-1983 military dictatorship. After democracy returned in 1983, civilian politicians led the Defence Ministry for more than four decades.
That changed on 12 December 2025, when Lieutenant General Carlos Presti, the former army chief, was sworn in as Minister of Defence. La Nación described him as the first military officer to run the ministry since the return of democracy.
Presti was still in post in October 2026, when he attended the 85th anniversary of Fabricaciones Militares, the state-owned defence manufacturer.
Churches, From Catholic Majority to Evangelical Growth
Argentina is still a Catholic-majority country, but less so than before. A 2019 national survey by CONICET, the state science council, found 62.9% Catholics, 15.3% evangelicals and 18.9% with no religion.
Most evangelicals are Pentecostal, about 13% of the population in that survey. Argentina also gave the world Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Buenos Aires.
Francis led the Catholic Church from 2013 until his death in April 2025.
Evangelical political weight is rising. Dante Gebel, a well-known evangelical pastor, is weighing a 2027 presidential bid.
His team put the odds of a run at 75% in September 2026, according to Letra P.
Bettors are less convinced, giving Gebel a 2.0% chance of winning the presidency. His decision is expected only around February or March 2027.
Who Is Left Out of Argentina Power
The clearest outsiders are the poor. INDEC, the national statistics institute, found that 32.3% of people in 31 urban areas were poor in the first half of 2026.
That is about 9.7 million people, up 4.1 percentage points from the second half of 2025. Indigence, meaning income too low to buy basic food, rose to 7.5%.
Children suffer most. Among Argentines aged 0 to 14, 44.5% lived in poor households, compared with 14.8% of people aged 65 and over.
Region matters as much as age. Poverty reached 41.5% in the Northeast region and 48.6% in Greater Resistencia, the capital area of Chaco province.
Income is also concentrated. The Gini coefficient, a 0-to-1 gauge where higher means more unequal, was 0.428 in the second quarter of 2026.
That was up from 0.424 a year earlier.
The median income of the richest tenth was 13 times that of the poorest tenth in that quarter, according to INDEC.
Indigenous and Afro-Argentine Communities
The 2022 census counted 1,306,730 people who identify as Indigenous or descended from Indigenous peoples, 2.9% of residents in private homes. They belong to 58 peoples, led by the Mapuche (145,783) and the Guaraní (135,232).
Jujuy (10.1%) and Salta (10.0%) have the highest Indigenous shares. The census also counted 302,936 Afro-descendants, 0.7% of the population, with 55.9% living in Buenos Aires city or province.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Javier Milei a 56.5% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election (10 October 2026, 9:20 a.m. ET). Axel Kicillof trails at 32.5%, Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate in 2023, at 7.6%, and Dante Gebel at 2.0%.
The market has drawn about US$831,000 in bets. Over the 24 hours to that check, Milei’s price rose 1.5 points and Kicillof’s 1.0 point.
For this question of who dominates Argentina, the bets suggest that Milei’s camp is favoured but far from safe.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Washington has a direct stake in Argentina power politics. In October 2025 the US Treasury signed a currency swap line of up to US$20 billion with Argentina’s central bank, the BCRA.
The BCRA drew about US$2.5 billion and repaid it in December 2025, La Nación reported in January 2026. Its 2025 accounts, released in May 2026, show about US$17.7 million in interest paid, TN reported.
In October 2026, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could offer such support again, according to Noticias Argentinas. Asked about future US interventions, he replied that Washington could ‘of course’ do it again.
US investors hold Argentine government bonds and shares of US-listed companies such as Tenaris and Mercado Libre. Their returns depend on whether Milei keeps enough allies in Congress and the provinces.
Energy investors should watch Neuquén’s governor and the unions as closely as the Casa Rosada. For the lender side of the story, see Argentina’s IMF Programme Explained and Argentina Foreign Powers and Investors in 2026.
More background on the country sits on the Rio Times Argentina page, including the Javier Milei profile and the Argentina population guide.
What Is Not Known
The full terms of the US swap line remain confidential, and the BCRA publishes only its movements in its accounts. Whether Washington would step in again before the 2027 election is open.
Who the Peronists will field in 2027 is undecided, and Gebel’s choice is not expected before early 2027. The private fortunes of leading families are also opaque, because their holding companies publish little.
Poverty data cover only 31 urban areas, so the official rate leaves out rural Argentina. Religious figures rest on surveys, because the national census does not ask about faith.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who holds the most power in Argentina in 2026?
President Javier Milei sets the national agenda, but Argentina power is shared. His party lacks a majority in Congress, so governors, Peronist lawmakers and smaller blocs decide which laws pass.
Who is Karina Milei?
Karina Milei is the president’s sister and Secretary General of the Presidency. In October 2026 she took part in official events such as the opening of a lithium plant in northwest Argentina.
Why is Buenos Aires so powerful?
Buenos Aires province and city were home to 45% of Argentines in the 2022 census. The region is the biggest prize in any national election, which makes its governor, Axel Kicillof, a key rival to Milei.
Which business families are most influential in Argentina?
Long-standing groups include the Techint group led by Paolo Rocca, whose Tenaris makes steel pipes, and Eduardo Eurnekian’s Corporación América, which runs the main airports. Marcos Galperin’s Mercado Libre represents the newer technology wealth.
How poor is Argentina?
INDEC found that 32.3% of people in 31 urban areas were poor in the first half of 2026. Among children aged 0 to 14, the rate was 44.5%.
What role does the military play in Argentina in 2026?
The armed forces are under elected government. Since December 2025 the Defence Ministry has been led by Carlos Presti, a former army chief and the first officer in the post since democracy returned.
What do prediction markets say about Argentina’s 2027 election?
Polymarket gave Javier Milei a 56.5% chance and Axel Kicillof 32.5% (10 October 2026, 9:20 a.m. ET). These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly.
Sources: INDEC, Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia, primer semestre de 2026, 2026-09; INDEC, Evolución de la distribución del ingreso, segundo trimestre de 2026, 2026; INDEC, Censo 2022, población por jurisdicción, 2023-11; INDEC, Censo 2022, población indígena, 2024-03; INDEC, Censo 2022, población afrodescendiente, 2024; Casa Rosada, Karina Milei at Sal de Oro Plant II, 2026-10-06; Honorable Cámara de Diputados, list of deputies by bloc, 2026-10-10; Senado de la Nación, senators by bloc, 2026-10-10; InfoLEG, Ley 23.548 de Coparticipación Federal, 1988-01-07; Provincia de Buenos Aires, Kicillof inauguró el Centro de Formación Integral N°1, 2026-10-07; Argentina.gob.ar, Fabricaciones Militares 85 años, 2026-10-09; Tenaris S.A., Annual Report 2025 (Form 20-F), 2026-03-31; MercadoLibre, Inc., Form 10-K 2025, 2026-02-25; CONICET-CEIL, Segunda Encuesta Nacional sobre Creencias y Actitudes Religiosas, 2019-11; La Nación, BCRA repaid activated swap tranche, 2026-01-09; La Nación, Presti sworn in as Defence Minister, 2025-12-12; Infobae, CGT march for national industry, 2026-10-08; elDiarioAR, airport concession extended (Administrative Decision 27/2026, Decree 1074/2026), 2026-09-28; Diario Río Negro, record oil output in August 2026, 2026-09-23; iProfesional, Techint and the Rocca-Milei dispute, 2026-10-02; Infobae, Mercado Libre CEO succession, 2025-12-17; Letra P, Dante Gebel 2027, 2026-09-26; Casa Rosada, Javier Milei’s words after taking office, 2023-12-10; Casa Rosada, Juan Domingo Perón (1895-1974), 2026; Ministerio de Defensa, list of presidents and defence ministers, 2026; Vatican, biography of Pope Francis, 2025; Forbes Argentina, airport concession to 2049 (Administrative Decision 27/2026), 2026-09-28; La Nación, Paolo Rocca steps down as Tenaris CEO, 2026-05-06; TN, BCRA swap interest in 2025 accounts, 2026-05-15; Noticias Argentinas, Bessent on new US support, 2026-10-04; Perfil, Sergio Massa, 2023 Unión por la Patria candidate, 2026-09-20.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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