By GB News (Politics) | Created at 2026-09-12 09:41:40 | Updated at 2026-09-20 03:02:45
1 week ago
Britain's leading polling guru has warned Labour against calling an early election because Reform UK could still become the biggest party in Parliament.
Sir John Curtice has said "the numbers are not there" for Andy Burnham to guarantee a Labour majority, despite Nigel Farage's party taking a hit in the polls following a summer of scandals.
While Labour has undoubtably seen its support in the polls surge since Mr Burnham succeeded Sir Keir Starmer, Reform UK could still become the largest party in the Commons, Sir John said.
The polling guru suggested because Reform UK supporters are "geographically evenly spread", it could work to the party's advantage.
Sir John told The Independent: "At the moment, the polls are saying that the Labour Party would lose its majority and that indeed one of the two post-Burnham bounce mega-poll MRPs actually has Reform with more seats than Labour.
"One of the things you have to remember is this, and this is something that people have not picked up, the decline in Labour support since 2024, according to more than one mega-poll I've looked at, has occurred disproportionately in seats that Labour won in 2024
"If you look at the pattern of the decline in Labour support in the local elections, it was heaviest in places where they were previously strongest."
More to follow...
