As Europe rearms, will it turn away from Asia?

A few years ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that the EU wanted to "take a more active role in the Indo-Pacific."

Now, the future of that commitment is in doubt as Europe is set to undergo a once-in-a-generation rearmament drive.

The United States under President Donald Trump has mused out loud about rolling back security guarantees, potentially leaving European states to shoulder the burden of an uncertain ceasefire in Ukraine and, eventually, other conflicts sparked by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"We are in an era of rearmament," von der Leyen said on March 4 as the Commission launched the "ReArm Europe" program, which aims to mobilize around €800 billion ($873 billion) over the next four years.

The EU's Indo-Pacific strategy

However, as European strategy focuses on its own backyard, helping support Asian security could likely fall by the wayside.

Since 2021, most of the larger European states have adopted "Indo-Pacific Strategies" and pledged to uphold the international rules-based order in the region.

"What happens in the Indo-Pacific region has indeed a direct impact in Europe due to our strong links in trade and foreign direct investment," the EU's then-foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, wrote in November.

For example, Germany and several other European states have signed defense pacts with Vietnam, which has faced tensions with China for decades over disputed territory in the South China Sea.

The Philippines, whose maritime disputes with China have escalated since last year, has signed defense agreements with the EU and the UK, while France is currently negotiating a visiting forces agreement to allow its troops access to Philippine military bases. France's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, took part in combat drills with Filipino forces for the first time a couple of weeks ago.

In recent years, warships from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK have exercised "freedom of navigation" missions in the Indo-Pacific to counter China's claims over international waterways.

But with the dramatic reversal in US support for Ukraine and the Trump administration's lackluster support for NATO, "Europeans are going to be far more focused on supporting Kyiv and building up European defense capacity," Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW.

"The Europeans simply do not have the resources to ensure their own security while supporting Asian security," he added.

'Europe first?'

Given the pace at which European security architecture has changed in recent weeks, it isn't surprising that few European leaders have had a spare a moment to ruminate on the implications for other parts of the world.

Analysts are also divided. But the general impression is that while European resources will be stretched,  a "Europe-first" approach doesn't mean abandoning Asian partners.

Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that because European security concerns are primarily a land theatre, where Asian security is mainly in the maritime domain, some European states "can probably afford to send a few warships a year and possibly an aircraft carrier battlegroup every other year."

"Europe's military presence was always mainly symbolic, but symbols matter, and Southeast Asian countries will not welcome less commitment to the region from their European partners," he added.

Moreover, there could eventually be some positives for Asian states with European rearmament, Joshua Espena, international relations lecturer at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, told DW.

Building up defense could lead European states to increase imports of material required by defense industries, such as advanced microchips from Taiwan and nickel and copper from the Philippines, Espena said.

If Europe's arms industry were to substantially bolster its output, there might be greater capacity to increase European arms exports to countries in the Indo-Pacific, many of which are desperate to diversify their militaries away from US, Chinese and Russian supplies.

Money problems

It's generally agreed that European rearmament won't degrade trade relations with the Indo-Pacific.

The EU is moving ahead with free trade agreement (FTA) talks with Thailand, which could be finished this year. Trade pact talks with Malaysia resumed in January after a 12-year hiatus. In late February, von der Leyen said the EU and India are also hoping to finalize an FTA this year.

However, days after the UK announced a considerable increase in defense spending, London said that it would cut its foreign aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% in 2027.

France delivered a 35% slash to overseas development earlier this year, while the Netherlands is likely to follow suit as it prioritizes the "interests of the Netherlands," according to a recent government statement.

"If European defense priorities become increasingly focused on their immediate neighborhood, [financial] commitments in Southeast Asia may not be sustainable in the long run," Joanne Lin Weiling, senior fellow and co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.

Experts reckon that Europe's pledged cuts to foreign aid won't be as immediately felt by charities and humanitarian agencies in the Indo-Pacific as the Trump administration's gutting of USAID.

In fact, several European states have stepped in to cover some of the financial and administrative gaps as Washington slashes its foreign aid.

This month, it was confirmed that Germany will take over the US role as co-leader of Indonesia's Just Energy Transition Partnership, a major multinational environmental program.

Although there will probably be an impact on environment-related funding, it might take several years to take effect as it is "unlikely that funds that are already committed will be retracted immediately," Helena Varkkey, an associate professor of environmental politics at Universiti Malaya, told DW.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn