By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-20 15:36:10 | Updated at 2026-06-23 17:07:54
3 days ago
After a balanced start left both of these sides with just one point each from their opening FIFA World Cup fixtures, we look ahead to Sunday’s clash with our Belgium vs Iran prediction and preview.
Belgium vs Iran: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Belgium as favourites for this clash against Iran, with a strong win probability of 66%.
- Sunday’s clash will mark the first ever encounter between Belgium and Iran in men’s international football.
- Iran have won just one of their 10 World Cup matches against European opposition (D2 L7).
Belgium and Iran both came from behind to secure hard-fought draws in their respective opening World Cup fixtures, making Sunday’s clash in Los Angeles one that neither can afford to lose.
It will be the first-ever meeting between the nations, adding another layer of intrigue to a tightly-contested Group G.
And while Belgium will certainly fancy themselves favourites to progress, Rudi Garcia will know his side produced a below-par display in their tournament opener against Egypt.
After falling behind to a sublime finish from Emam Ashour, there was little urgency from the Red Devils until after the break.
The introduction of Romelu Lukaku provided a much-needed catalyst, however, as his presence forced Mohamed Hany into an own goal that secured a 1-1 draw.
The result extended Belgium’s winless run at the World Cup to three (D2 L1), having previously failed to win only two of their prior 13 games at the tournament (W11 L2).
Nonetheless, the Opta supercomputer still gives Garcia’s side a strong 90.3% chance of progressing from Group G, while Iran’s odds of moving onto the next round are placed at 47.6%.
Amir Ghalenoei’s side also fought hard to secure a 2-2 draw with New Zealand in their curtain-raiser, with Ramin Rezaeian and Mohammad Mohebi netting either side of the break to cancel out Elijah Just’s brace.
As such, Iran avoided defeat in their opening World Cup match for only the third time, following a goalless draw with Nigeria in 2014 and a 1-0 win over Morocco in 2018.
They have never collected points from both of their first two matches at a World Cup, though, meaning a small piece of history will await should they avoid defeat again on Sunday.
This will be the 10th time Iran have faced a nation ranked within the top 15 of the FIFA world rankings at a World Cup, with seven of their previous nine such matches ending in defeat.
Their only victory came against the USA in 1998, while they also held Portugal to a heroic 1-1 draw in 2018.
While Iran may have a big mountain to climb, they will take some encouragement from Belgium’s recent dry spell in front of goal on the big stage.
Not including own goals, the Red Devils have not scored a World Cup goal since Michy Batshuayi’s group-stage strike against Canada in 2022.
Indeed, Belgium have failed to score from any of their last 46 shots at the tournament, despite those attempts totalling 5.66 expected goals (xG).
While finishing remains a concern, Garcia can still rely on the chaotic energy of Jérémy Doku to create chances. Against Egypt on Matchday 1, the Manchester City winger completed three of his 10 attempted dribbles, won possession six times and won five fouls. Only one player has previously recorded those numbers in such excess in a single World Cup match, with Brazil’s Vinícius Júnior doing so against Switzerland in 2022.
But if Garcia is to fully solve Belgium’s goalscoring issues, he will need Lukaku to quickly rediscover his scoring touch.
His substitute appearance against Egypt was his 127th cap for Belgium, moving him level with Toby Alderweireld in third place on the nation’s all-time appearances list, behind Jan Vertonghen (157) and Axel Witsel (138). However, the Napoli striker has not scored at the World Cup since netting a brace against Tunisia in 2018.
Iran, meanwhile, have a veteran of their own they will be counting on in Rezaeian to come good once more. Following his man-of-the-match display against New Zealand, the right-back became the oldest player on record since 1966 (36 years, 86 days) to both score and assist in a World Cup match, while also becoming the first Iranian to achieve the feat.
Belgium vs Iran Head-to-Head
Sunday’s clash presents something of an unknown quantity as it will be the first-ever meeting between Belgium and Iran in any competition.
Unbeaten in their last 14 matches across competitions, Belgium will arrive with confidence, though Garcia will know his side can ill afford another slip up if they are to progress.
Iran, meanwhile, have won just one of their 10 World Cup matches against European opposition (D2 L7), though that victory came in their most recent such encounter – a 2-0 win over Wales in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup.
Belgium vs Iran Prediction
Unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer could not look past a Belgium win for this match in LA.
The Red Devils triumphed in 66% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Iran’s chances of victory are rated at just 15.1%. The probability of a draw, then, is left at 18.9%.
Belgium vs Iran Squads
Belgium: Thibaut Courtois, Senne Lammens, Mike Penders, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele, Maxim De Cuyper, Thomas Meunier, Koni De Winter, Joaquin Seys, Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Axel Witsel, Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Hans Vanaken, Nicolas Raskin, Amadou Onana, Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard, Jérémy Doku, Dodi Lukébakio, Charles De Ketelaere, Diego Moreira, Alexis Saelemaekers, Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
Iran: Alireza Beiranvand, Payam Niazmand, Hossein Hosseini, Saleh Hardani, Ehsan Hajisafi, Shoja Khalilzadeh, Milad Mohammadi, Hossein Kanani, Arya Yousefi, Ali Nemati, Ramin Rezaeian, Danial Eiri, Saeid Ezatolahi, Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Mohammad Mohebbi, Saman Ghoddos, Roozbeh Cheshmi, Mehdi Torabi, Mohammad Ghorbani, Amir Mohammad Razzaghinia, Mehdi Taremi, Mehdi Ghayedi, Ali Alipour, Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh, Shahriyar Moghanloo, Dennis Dargahi.
Belgium vs Iran Predicted Lineups
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