Bitcoin 2025 predictions: Will BTC go to the moon?

Bitcoin, the world's most popular cryptocurrency, has had a big year. In 2024, it broke new ground, reaching and surpassing the price of $100,000 per 1 BTC for the first time.

But it's a very interesting moment for crypto investors right now. President Donald Trump was inaugurated for the second time in January, bringing with him the most crypto-friendly administration the U.S. has ever seen. He preluded that with the launch of a new $TRUMP meme coin, likely making millions in the process. Macroeconomic indicators are all over the place, and the global geopolitical situation hasn't been this messy since the Cold War era.

Large entities such as corporations and nation-states have been buying bitcoins en masse, but in recent months, they've been more eager to sell than buy. The U.S. government will no longer sell its stash thanks to Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative. To complicate things further, arcane technologies, such as quantum computing, are threatening to unravel Bitcoin's very foundation — though no one's sure when that may happen or if it will happen at all.

All of that leaves Bitcoin in a precarious place. Ask 10 experts where its price may go, and you'll get 10 vastly different answers, likely ranging from zero to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The thing to do, then, is to calmly and carefully consider the most critical factors that influence Bitcoin before making any investment decisions.

Bitcoin's biggest milestone: Hitting $100,000

How did this happen? Bitcoin started out as an experiment by its elusive, pseudonymous founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, who unleashed it onto the world and disappeared shortly after. It was first embraced by a few enthusiasts, such as Hal Finney, whose interests were at a cross-section of cryptography and finance.

For Bitcoin to succeed and become secure, bitcoins must become vastly more expensive.

For years, Bitcoin was almost a joke, with proponents seemingly waiting forever for it to become the peer-to-peer digital cash that Nakamoto envisioned. But the price kept rising, and though Bitcoin was never widely adopted as a means of payment, it became something else: a decentralized version of digital gold that feeds on computing power to keep its transactional network secure.

It took a few years for people to start paying attention: In May 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz famously spent 10,000 BTC on two pizzas; had he kept the bitcoins, they would be worth billions now. Hanyecz is annually reminded of this on May 22, when bitcoiners celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day.

By 2024, Bitcoin had essentially become widely legitimized as something that has value and should be taken very seriously. A key development in this was the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs, or exchange traded funds, are investment funds that hold a certain asset or security, allowing anyone to get exposure to that asset (in this case Bitcoin) without having to deal with the intricacies of having a cryptocurrency wallet.

These funds, which require BTC to actually be bought and held in custody for its clients, were huge, prompting heavyweights such as BlackRock and Fidelity to finally throw their marketing machines and financial heft behind Bitcoin. The ETFs were a stellar success, with billions pouring in on a weekly basis. As of now, spot Bitcoin ETFs hold a total of 1.13 million BTC, worth roughly $100 billion.

Add that to Michael Saylor's Microstrategy, a company with a somewhat inert software business that started buying bitcoins en masse in 2020 and now holds roughly 499,000 BTC worth $41 billion, and you not only have a race to earn more bitcoins but a real fear amongst cryptocurrency titans of being left behind with zero bitcoins while everyone else has some.

That, in very rough sketches, is how Bitcoin got from zero to $100,000 per Bitcoin in less than two decades, making it one of the most successful financial products of all time.

Where does Bitcoin stand now?

In January, it all seemed hunky dory for cryptocurrencies. Trump got inaugurated, and Bitcoin was breaking new highs at above $108,000 on Jan. 20. Then, the newly elected president started talking tariffs, U.S. stock indexes turned red, and crypto followed. Right now, BTC is trading at about $82,000 per coin.

And that was despite the unprecedented amount of good news for Bitcoin and crypto in general, including the formation of a Crypto Task Force and Trump's announcement of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in early March, which forbade the U.S. government to sell bitcoins it already owns while opening some avenues to acquire more.

This does not necessarily mean the bull market is over. Bitcoin has historically had large price corrections (yes, bigger than 30%) even during bull runs.

Is Bitcoin a legitimate investment?

The likelihood of any investment being "fraudulent" to some degree or at least risky is never zero. Companies you hold stock in can conceal losses with accounting schemes. Banks can debank you because of identity theft. Even if you invest in something as solid as real estate or commodities, things can go wrong. Ships sink. Trains get derailed. Tornadoes happen. Even if there's no fraud or catastrophic incident in your cards, sometimes prices just tank because of unforeseen events.

Bitcoin is no different: Things could go wrong, and they sometimes do.

That said, Bitcoin is as legit as it can be these days. It's been bought by the billions by the largest of U.S. investment companies. Some nation-states, such as El Salvador, have even opted in. Companies such as Microstrategy are piling up Bitcoin instead of cash, and it's no longer just for nerds with powerful computers — it hasn't been for a long time. Plus, the creation of the U.S. Bitcoin Reserve further solidified Bitcoin as a legitimate asset.

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CCData Research Lead, Joshua de Vos, says Bitcoin passing the "psychological" $100,000 mark was an incredibly important milestone. "This price movement is closely tied to growing optimism surrounding the incoming administration and expectations of greater regulatory clarity and state-backed support for Bitcoin," he told Mashable in a statement.

"This initiative could position Bitcoin as a national asset, further legitimizing its role as a store of value and helping to further diversify government holdings."

Yes, a catastrophic error could still be found in Bitcoin's software, but the odds of that, given that Bitcoin has been running for 16 years and counting with well over a trillion dollars on the line, are extremely small. Quantum computers may one day be able to crack Bitcoin's encryption, but if you trust Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, decades will pass before "very useful" quantum computers arrive.

President of OKX exchange Hong Fang is optimistic about Bitcoin's longterm prospects, though he also warns of possible "black swan" events that could influence Bitcoin's price. In particular, he worries about the risks of too much Bitcoin being held by individual entities, which is a byproduct of the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. “Where there is concentration, there are risks,” says de Vos.

As it gains legitimacy, Bitcoin is getting less volatile, but the price of 1 BTC can still gain or lose double digits in a day. Gold as an investment has been around for thousands of years; Bitcoin hasn't even turned 20.

Bitcoin in 2025: Macro worries and hopes

This is where it gets tricky. Bitcoin is no longer a countertrade against the entire financial system, it is now a part of that system, and it's owned by the billions by entities who follow traditional investing rules such as going risk off when U.S. bond yields surge. Bitcoin may be called digital gold, but it still often behaves like a risk asset (such as company stock).

Hence, Bitcoin is and will be affected, perhaps increasingly so, by big movements in traditional markets, which in turn are affected by macroeconomic trends. A strong U.S. dollar, for example, might push prices of stocks and Bitcoin down.

The vast majority of us, however, aren't macro experts. Observing larger trends and keeping tabs on what may be lurking behind the horizon is all right, but few can really predict whether the U.S. dollar or bond yields will go up or down in a year's time, including us. Instead, check out the work done by research firm Dalbar, which proves year after year that most investors underperform a simple index fund.

In other words, trying to predict Bitcoin's price based on tracking macroeconomic trends is probably futile.

How are meme coins impacting Bitcoin?

Coins come and go. Granted, $TRUMP was a big one, rising to a fully diluted valuation of about $83 billion within hours and sucking out liquidity from the entire crypto market in the process. But if you zoom out, Bitcoin barely blinked.

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There will be other meme coins, and we'll probably see many other high-profile people, as well as organizations and perhaps even nation-states, following up. It can affect Bitcoin's price short-term, but we've seen such shenanigans before, and Bitcoin came through just fine.

In a recent statement, the U.S. SEC said that meme coins aren't securities.

Alts, or altcoins (typically defined as all cryptocurrencies that aren't Bitcoin) generally do trade in lockstep with Bitcoin. But Bitcoin has its own thing going on and is getting more impervious to movements in the crypto markets. This is partially because a big chunk of its supply is now owned by ETFs and large investors, who don't sway as easy as the newbie who bought yesterday but is now thinking about dumping it all in favor of an alt.

However, if Bitcoin is doing well, alts typically do well, too. As former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao recently put it, "What's good for bitcoin is good for alts."

Where do crypto legends think the price of Bitcoin will go?

Bitcoin is still a teenager, but it feels like it's been around for an eternity, mostly because something new happens to it or around it every day.

With continued adoption amplified by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, short-term sentiments, and market speculations, I expect Bitcoin's price to stay volatile with a general upward trend in the next 12 months, going as low as $70k or as high as $150k. But over the next 3-4 years, I see a good chance to realize a $400-$500k price range for the ‘digital gold.’

There are people who were there from the very beginning — technologists who dabbled with the technical side, enthusiasts who just liked the idea, as well as investors who recognized the potential early. What do they say about Bitcoin's prospects going forward?

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Legendary crypto investor and podcaster Cobie often comments with tongue-in-cheek remarks. But he seems to be very bullish on Bitcoin, as he expects it to continue making new all-time highs in rapid succession at some point in the near future.

Another legendary investor who tweets very sparingly these days, pseudonymous crypto trader GCR (short for GiganticRebirth), still thinks Bitcoin will ultimately have a larger market cap than gold (that's currently estimated at around $18.3 trillion, while BTC's market cap is a little over $2 trillion).

I don't believe bitcoin tops until it flips gold, and will likely be long bitcoin for the rest of my life.

He does, however, warn that the time to get really greedy has passed and that investors should be more careful as we approach bull market peak.

From the other side of the stadium comes Peter Schiff, who's vocal about his disdain for Bitcoin. According to him, a strategic Bitcoin reserve would lead to "higher inflation and a weaker economy" in the U.S.

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Like many high-profile executives of the traditional finance world, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink took his time warming up to Bitcoin. These days, however, he thinks it's an "alternative" to gold.

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz was an early investor in Bitcoin. He claims that Bitcoin reaching the price of $100,000 per coin is a "milestone that represents more than price."

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"It’s proof of adoption, belief, and a community that has carried this revolution from 0 to 100. With world leaders leaning in and a generational wealth shift underway, this is just the beginning," he tweeted.

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Finally, if you want to get poetic, perhaps it's best to quote one of the most fanatical proponents of Bitcoin, Michael Saylor. As he puts it, "#Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy."