By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-03 08:50:15 | Updated at 2026-10-04 10:48:48
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ELECTIONS · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil votes on Sunday 4 October for president, Congress and 27 governors, including Rio de Janeiro state, where former Rio mayor Eduardo Paes leads Datafolha’s 1 October poll.
- —What happened On Friday 2 October, TSE (Superior Electoral Court) judge Floriano de Azevedo Marques ordered votes for Anthony Garotinho filed as “annulled sub judice” (Agência Brasil, G1).
- —The numbers Datafolha, 1 October: Paes 47% of valid votes, Douglas Ruas 35%, Garotinho 8%. On a list without Garotinho, Paes had 48% and Ruas 38%.
- —What it means for you Garotinho stays on Rio’s voting machines on Sunday. The order says his votes are not valid, but the TSE has not said how they enter the count.
- —Still open The full TSE has not judged Garotinho’s appeal, and no date has been reported. If he wins, his votes could be validated and the result recounted (Congresso em Foco).
A Brazilian electoral judge on Friday ordered Garotinho votes in Rio de Janeiro’s governor race to be filed as “annulled sub judice”. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has not said how those votes will be counted on Sunday 4 October.
Anthony Garotinho, a former Rio governor, stays on the ballot because the state court rejected him after the machines were loaded. How his votes are treated may decide whether front-runner Eduardo Paes wins outright in the first round.
What the judge decided
Judge Floriano de Azevedo Marques revoked his own earlier injunction, which had kept Garotinho’s campaign running during his appeal. The order also cuts his access to public campaign funds and free election airtime.
“The votes directed to him must not be considered valid for any purpose,” Floriano wrote, as quoted by Valor and Folha. Yet the same order files them as “annulled sub judice”, a pending category, not as definitive null votes.
He cited the courts’ duty to avoid “uncertainty among voters and instability of the election”. He acted on a request from the coalition behind Paes, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Folha and Congresso em Foco reported.
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Why the counting rule is unclear
Garotinho votes filed sub judice are pending, not definitively null. Under TSE rules, only definitive null votes are left out of the percentage calculation, O Globo reported.
Before Friday’s order, Folha quoted the Rio state electoral court (TRE-RJ) saying such votes “are counted in the calculation of the percentages”. Asked by O Globo how Friday’s wording changes that, the TSE only forwarded the order.
Gazeta do Povo cited TSE guidance that such votes can affect the proclamation of results in races for executive office. That leaves open whether a first-round winner can be declared on Sunday night.
What the polls show
Datafolha’s poll published on 1 October gave Paes 47% of valid votes, Douglas Ruas 35% and Garotinho 8%. Ruas, of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), is speaker of the state assembly.
A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to win in the first round. Folha calculated that Paes would reach 51% if Garotinho’s share were set aside.
Datafolha’s own scenario with a list excluding Garotinho gave Paes 48% and Ruas 38%, short of an outright win. Datafolha interviewed 1,204 people from 28 September to 1 October, with a three-point margin of error.
Polls are not results, and Veja noted that Ruas has been gaining ground. Background is in Rio de Janeiro Heads Toward Two Votes for Governor in 2026 and Datafolha State Polls: Big Leads in São Paulo, Rio and Minas.
The conviction behind the case
The TRE-RJ rejected Garotinho’s registration in September and unanimously upheld that on 29 September. It found his political rights suspended for eight years over an administrative misconduct conviction.
The case concerns health funds during his wife Rosinha Matheus’s term as governor. Folha reports he was accused of diverting R$234.4 million (about US$44.9 million at R$5.22 per US dollar, 2 October) to NGOs.
His defence says the conviction became final in 2018, so the ban ended in August 2026. Federal electoral prosecutors told the TSE that his rights remain suspended until July 2033.
Garotinho’s response
“They changed a collegiate decision through a single-judge measure,” Garotinho said in a video, according to Folha. His lawyers plan to take the matter to TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques.
Paes’s lawyers had warned of a runoff held and later declared unnecessary once the count was redone. Friday’s order does not decide the appeal itself.
What Is Not Yet Known
The TSE has not said how the Garotinho votes will enter Sunday’s count or when a winner can be proclaimed. The full court has yet to rule on his appeal, and no date has been reported.
If Garotinho wins that appeal, his votes could be validated and the result recounted, Congresso em Foco reported. Paes’s lawyers want a ruling before any runoff campaign begins.
Sources: Agência Brasil, 2 October 2026; G1, 2 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, 2 October 2026; Valor Econômico, 2 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, 2 October 2026 (vote-count analysis); Veja, 2 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 2 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 2 October 2026; O Globo, 3 October 2026; Federal Prosecution Service (MPF), electoral filing to the TSE; Datafolha via G1, 1 October 2026 (RJ-02070/2026).
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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