Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 15, 2025

By The Rio Times | Created at 2025-01-15 08:38:21 | Updated at 2025-01-15 13:06:13 5 hours ago

As Brazil’s financial markets commence trading on this Wednesday, January 15, 2025, the day’s economic agenda is characterized by both local and international events that could significantly influence market dynamics.

Today, Brazil will release key domestic indicators that provide insights into the health of the service sector and foreign exchange movements, which are crucial for understanding internal economic conditions and investor sentiment.

Economic Agenda for January 15, 2025

Brazil

09:00 AM – Service Sector Growth: This indicator is vital as it reflects consumer spending trends and the health of the service industry, which is a major component of Brazil’s GDP. Strong growth here could bolster confidence in the domestic economy.
02:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flow: This data will shed light on capital movements in and out of Brazil, influencing the real’s valuation and providing a snapshot of investor interest in Brazilian assets.

Eurozone

02:45 AM – French CPI (MoM) (Dec) & French HICP (MoM) (Dec): These indices will gauge inflation in France, potentially impacting ECB policy expectations and thus broader European market sentiment.
03:00 AM – Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec) & Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec): Similar to France, these figures will offer insights into inflation trends in Spain, influencing regional economic forecasts.
03:00 AM – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Comments from the ECB Vice President could sway market expectations regarding monetary policy, particularly in light of recent inflation data.
05:00 AM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): This will reflect the state of manufacturing in the Eurozone, crucial for understanding economic growth patterns.

United States

08:30 AM – Core CPI (YoY) (Dec), Core CPI (MoM) (Dec), CPI (MoM) (Dec), CPI (YoY) (Dec): These consumer price indices are pivotal as they directly inform on inflation, potentially dictating the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates.
08:30 AM – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan): An early indicator of manufacturing health in the U.S., this could set the tone for broader market reactions.
10:00 AM – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks & 11:00 AM – FOMC Member Williams Speaks: These speeches could provide further clarity on the Fed’s future policy direction.
10:30 AM – Crude Oil Inventories & Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: These reports will influence oil prices, directly affecting Brazil’s energy sector and broader commodity markets.
02:00 PM – Beige Book: This comprehensive report on economic conditions across the U.S. districts will offer nuanced insights into the economy’s health, guiding investor decisions.

United Kingdom

02:00 AM – CPI (MoM) (Dec), CPI (YoY) (Dec), CPIH (YoY), PPI Input (MoM) (Dec): These inflation metrics will influence expectations around Bank of England’s policy adjustments.
07:01 PM – RICS House Price Balance (Dec): Provides a view on the health of the UK housing market, which can have ripple effects on financial markets globally.

Other Countries

04:00 AM – USD – IEA Monthly Report: This report from the International Energy Agency could impact global energy markets.
08:30 AM – CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov): Reflects demand in the Canadian market, relevant for cross-border trade with Brazil.
07:30 PM – AUD – Employment Change (Dec), Full Employment Change (Dec), Unemployment Rate (Dec): These employment indicators from Australia will influence investor perceptions of Asia-Pacific economic stability.
08:00 PM – NY – PBoC Loan Prime Rate: Changes here could affect global financial markets due to China’s economic influence.

Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

The Ibovespa index stayed robust above 119,000 points, closing up 0.25% at 119,298.67 points, supported by strong performances from major banks and Vale. The dollar saw a decline, closing at R$6.0464, down by 0.85%, following the release of cooling U.S. inflation data. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced that President Lula will sign the Tax Reform this week, with some vetoes, impacting fiscal policy expectations.

U.S. Markets Yesterday

U.S. stocks experienced a positive shift due to stabilizing bond markets and a weakening dollar, with markets absorbing news on potential gradual tariff hikes by the Trump administration, which introduced a mixed narrative on inflation and trade policy impacts.

Commodity Markets

Oil Prices

Oil prices dipped below $80 as a potential ceasefire in Gaza loomed, suggesting a possible decrease in geopolitical risk premiums.

Gold Prices

Gold prices climbed as the U.S. dollar weakened, and with the prospect of Trump’s return influencing market dynamics.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin rebounded to $97,000 amid market volatility and ETF outflows, showcasing the cryptocurrency’s resilience.

Corporate and Market Highlights

Brazilian Textiles: Brazilian textiles face threats from Trump’s policies and Asian imports, highlighting sector vulnerabilities. Read more…

Retail Confidence: Brazilian retail confidence climbed 3.1% in 2024, indicating consumer optimism. Read more…

Global Mining: Global mining requires significant investment, with implications for Brazil’s mining sector. Read more…

Bradesco BBI: Bradesco BBI aims to control CCR amid financial turmoil, reflecting strategic moves in infrastructure. Read more…

BRF Expansion: BRF expands its footprint in the Middle East, signaling growth in international markets. Read more…

WEG vs. Vale: WEG surpasses Vale in market value, showcasing a shift in Brazil’s industrial landscape. Read more…

MRV Sales: MRV’s record-breaking sales in Q4 2024 signal a strong real estate market. Read more…

Outlook

As markets open today, the blend of domestic service sector performance and foreign exchange flow data will be central to understanding Brazil’s economic trajectory. Concurrently, international inflation data, particularly from the U.S., will be critical in shaping global market sentiment, which could have ripple effects on Brazilian assets.

The day’s trading will likely respond to these indicators, alongside corporate developments, with a keen eye on how global policies and commodity trends influence local markets.

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