By New York Post (Politics) | Created at 2026-10-04 20:56:43 | Updated at 2026-10-04 22:05:08
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Xavier Becerra’s lead over Steve Hilton has shrunk to just 5.6 points in a new post-debate poll – with nearly one in seven voters still undecided
The California governor’s race has tightened dramatically, with Democrat Becerra holding a slim 5.6-point advantage over Republican Steve Hilton in a new poll conducted immediately after the candidates’ first debate.
The poll, commissioned by Hilton’s campaign and conducted by pollster David Wolfson on Oct. 1-2, surveyed 1,020 California voters and found Becerra with 45.7% support to Hilton’s 40.1%, while another 14.1% remain undecided.
The numbers mark a striking shift from an earlier poll commissioned by Hilton that showed Becerra with a 52%-37% lead, according to a poll previously reported by the Post.
That 15-point advantage has now been reduced to less than six points.
Becerra’s support has dropped 6.3 percentage points from that earlier survey, while Hilton has gained 3.1 points, producing a 9.4-point shift in the margin.
And with 14.1% of voters still undecided, the race remains very much in play.
The new Wolfson survey also suggests Californians are far from thrilled with the direction of their state.
Nearly six in 10 voters — 58.8% — said California is headed in the wrong direction, compared with just 28.1% who said the state is moving in the right direction. Another 13.1% were unsure.
That gloomy outlook could provide an opening for Hilton, who has made frustration with California’s high costs and Democratic leadership central to his campaign.
But Becerra still holds the advantage among voters who have made up their minds.
When respondents who were undecided were asked which candidate they would lean toward if forced to choose, 72.5% leaned toward Becerra and 27.5% toward Hilton.
The survey also found that neither candidate is particularly beloved.
Becerra’s favorable rating stood at 44.1%, while 45.3% viewed him unfavorably. Hilton fared worse overall, with 35.5% favorable and 50.7% unfavorable.
The poll was conducted after a highly watched Oct. 1 debate between the two candidates.
About 11.2% said they watched all or nearly all of the debate on CNN, while another 9.5% watched part of it.
Nearly 20% saw clips or highlights online or in the news, and another 19.9% said they followed news coverage without watching the debate itself.
The latest numbers are a significant departure from several recent public polls that have shown Becerra holding a much wider lead.
The poll also comes amid Hilton’s accusations of Becerra lying about his immigrant background.
“Unlike Becerra (because I’ve been out there listening to the people), I know Becerra’s policies have destroyed the California Dream. My plans will restore it,” Hilton wrote on X.
“Unlike Xavier Becerra, I am an immigrant. Unlike Xavier Becerra, my father was an immigrant. My stepfather, too. My whole family,” he added.
Becerra has previously said his parents moved to the U.S. as immigrants.
The Post has reached out to the Becerra camp for further comment.
