By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-01 09:57:25 | Updated at 2026-09-05 05:08:48
3 days ago
From winning a domestic treble in 2024-25 to finishing outside the WSL’s top two for the first time since 2018-19, Chelsea head into the 2026-27 campaign in unfamiliar territory. We examine the biggest talking points ahead of the new WSL season.
For six successive seasons, Chelsea made winning the Women’s Super League look almost routine. That sense of inevitability disappeared last season, as they finished outside the top two for the first time since 2018-19.
That raises a clear question ahead of the 2026-27 WSL season: was this simply a bump in the road, or are the foundations of Chelsea’s domestic dominance beginning to wobble?
A summer of significant change has only added to that uncertainty. Chelsea are arguably in the midst of their biggest rebuild for more than a decade.
Having said all that, the Opta supercomputer remains firmly in their corner. Despite the scale of the turnover, Chelsea are predicted to win in 40.2% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, with a 70.3% chance of qualifying for Europe.
Here are the biggest talking points as we approach the start of the new domestic season.
Can Chelsea Rediscover Their Cutting Edge?
Chelsea’s return of 44 goals in the WSL last season was still the third most in the division, behind only Arsenal (53) and Manchester City (62). But, by their standards, it represented a drop-off. It was the club’s lowest count in a league campaign since 2017-18.
What makes that decline particularly alarming is that chance creation was not necessarily a problem.
Chelsea created 50 ‘big chances’ (those from which a player would be expected to score) across the season, the second-highest total they have recorded in a WSL campaign behind only the 77 they managed in 2023-24. Their expected goals total of 46.5 was also only fractionally below their 48.7 xG from their dominant 2024-25 season. But the issue came in front of goal.
Their big-chance conversion rate of 37.9% was Chelsea’s fifth lowest in a WSL season and their poorest since 2018-19 (37.3%), while their overall shot conversion rate of 11.2% was their lowest in eight seasons.
They lacked a clinical edge, and the absence of a reliable goalscorer proved costly.
Indeed, Chelsea’s leading scorers last season, Sam Kerr and Alyssa Thompson, finished with just seven league goals each. That figure is the lowest for the club’s top-scorer tally in a WSL season since 2015, when a campaign consisted of only 14 league matches compared to 22 last term.
There were signs throughout the season that Chelsea lacked the ruthlessness that defined many of their title-winning sides.
Only three times in the league did a Chelsea player score more than once in a match, with Sandy Baltimore, Kerr and Lauren James each registering a brace. The last time they recorded as few multi-goal individual performances in a season was 2014-15.
That inability to put teams away was reflected in their results. Chelsea dropped eight points from winning positions, a club record for a single WSL season, while only Leicester City (2) and Liverpool (2) won fewer points from losing positions than the Blues (3).
Sonia Bompastor’s side had previously shown a knack for finding a way to win during their title-winning campaign in 2024-25, but they couldn’t maintain the same level into 2025-26.
Indeed, after boasting an 86.4%-win rate in Bompastor’s first WSL season, that fell to 68.2% in 2025-26, their lowest win percentage since 2018-19.
Were Chelsea’s Problems Also at the Other End?
Chelsea’s attacking struggles were impossible to ignore, but the numbers suggest last season’s decline was not solely down to what happened in front of goal.
The Blues conceded 20 league goals in 2025-26, their most in a WSL campaign since 2013-14 (27).
Even more concerning was how frequently their goal came under pressure, as Chelsea faced 250 shots across the season; only once before in a WSL campaign had they faced more (286 in 2013-14).
At first glance, those numbers look quite alarming. But dig a little deeper, and there’s a little more nuance.
Only Arsenal (15.4) recorded a lower expected goals against (xGA) total than Chelsea’s 25.5 xGA last season, suggesting opponents generally struggled to consistently create high-quality opportunities. That said, Chelsea were far closer to the league’s average (32.1) than to Arsenal’s league-leading standards.
That additional pressure on goal was reflected in the workload of Hannah Hampton. The England international made 50 saves, the most ever recorded by a Chelsea goalkeeper in a single WSL campaign.
Did Europe Become Too Much of an Obsession Last Season?
After securing a domestic treble in her first season, the UEFA Women’s Champions League was the obvious next target for Bompastor’s Chelsea. Instead, the Blues exited at the quarter-final stage, their earliest departure for four years.
In attempting to compete on all fronts, Chelsea’s greatest strength may have become a weakness. Few teams can match Bompastor’s squad depth, but she rotated heavily throughout, perhaps at the expense of continuity.
Chelsea made more starting XI changes than any other WSL side last season and used the second-most players after Liverpool. No Chelsea player featured in all 22 league matches; the only other club for whom that was true was relegated Leicester City.
The pattern continued in Europe. Only Real Madrid used more players in the 2025-26 UWCL, while no side named more different starters. Chelsea used 26 players across just eight Champions League matches, only one fewer than the 27 used across their entire WSL campaign.
Whether driven by injuries, fixture congestion or Bompastor searching for her strongest combinations, Chelsea often looked like a side still trying to discover their best XI.
Can Bompastor Build Chelsea’s Next Great Team?
Chelsea aren’t just replacing goals, but the experience of players who came to define their dominant era.
Millie Bright has retired, while Kerr, Guro Reiten, Johanna Rytting Kaneryd and Catarina Macario have departed, taking with them significant quality, leadership and big-game experience.
Kerr’s exit is perhaps the most obvious loss. Her ACL injury restricted the Australian to just 685 league minutes last season, yet she still led all Chelsea players for both goals per 90 (0.92) and combined goal involvements per 90 (1.18).
Even a diminished Kerr remained Chelsea’s most efficient attacker last season.
The departures of Reiten and Rytting Kaneryd also leave a creative void, with each leading Chelsea for chances created (36) in 2023-24 and 2024-25 respectively.
Macario’s exit removes another attacking threat; only Aggie Beever-Jones (0.73) had a better goals-per-90 rate among Chelsea players with 200+ WSL minutes in 2024-25 than Macario (0.68).
Who Will Step Up?
If Chelsea are to return to the top of the WSL, the spotlight is likely to fall on Lauren James.
Injury problems limited James to just 782 league minutes last season, yet she ranked first among Chelsea players for assists per 90 (0.46), while only Erin Cuthbert (93) and Thompson (94) were involved in more attacking sequences than James (89), despite both playing significantly more minutes.
The challenge now is for James to become the focal point of the team and to establish a more defined role that can help Chelsea build greater fluency in attack.
Thompson also showed encouraging signs in her first season at the club, leading Chelsea for total goal involvements (10), while no player in the squad was involved in more open-play attacking sequences.
There are also new signings who could step up.
Melvine Malard arrived from Manchester United having scored 15 WSL goals over the past three seasons. During that period, only Elisabeth Terland (16) found the net more often for the club, while only Katie Zelem (57) and Ella Toone (63) created more chances than Malard’s 48.
The French forward offers Chelsea both goal threat and creativity, qualities they needed to replace following a summer of notable attacking departures.
Katie McCabe adds proven creativity. She was involved in 97 open-play attacking sequences for Arsenal last season, more than any Chelsea player. Since joining Arsenal in 2015, only Beth Mead has registered more assists (49 vs 44) or created more chances (346 vs 280).
Perhaps the most exciting addition, however, is Manaka Matsukubo.
The 22-year-old joined from the North Carolina Courage after being named the NWSL Midfielder of the Year in 2025.
Despite primarily operating in midfield, Matsukubo scored 11 league goals last season, with only Temwa Chawinga (15) and Esther González (13) finding the net more often. She also ranked second in the league for goal involvements (15) and created more big chances than any other player in the competition, underlining her ability to both create and finish opportunities.
Alongside Matsukubo, Chelsea have invested in another of the game’s brightest young talents in Giulia Dragoni.
Still only 19, the Italian midfielder signed from Barcelona after helping Roma win the Serie A title during her loan spell last season. Dragoni finished as Roma’s second-highest scorer in the league with seven goals and has already made an encouraging start to life in west London, finding the net on her debut in pre-season against Auckland.
So, the ambition is clear. Chelsea are not just focused on replacing the old guard, but are trying to build the foundations of their next generation.
Why Chelsea Remain the Opta Supercomputer’s Title Favourites
The last time Chelsea finished outside the top two (2018-19), they responded in emphatic style to win the league the subsequent season.
Repeating that feat will require Bompastor to restore Chelsea’s trademark consistency while finding new leaders to replace those who have departed.
The early schedule gives them a good chance to start well. Only Tottenham, Brighton and Everton face opponents with lower average ratings in the Opta Power Rankings across their opening 10 WSL games, giving Chelsea the chance to build momentum and quickly reassert themselves as title contenders.
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
