Canada PM Mark Carney confirms he’s prepped for US invasion: ‘Would be irresponsible not to’

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed in an interview this week that his government had prepared for the possibility of the US launching an invasion of Canada amid ongoing trade tensions.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the New York Times in an interview Wednesday while in town for the United Nations General Assembly. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to.”

The 61-year-old, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, spoke one week after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada an associate member of the 27-nation bloc, a move President Trump suggested could be a “hostile act.”

President Donald Trump welcomes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney outside the West Wing of the White House in Washington, on Oct. 7, 2025. Getty Images

Earlier this month, Ottawa slapped retaliatory tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on more than $20 billion worth of American goods, including steel, aluminum, wool, lumber, milk, T-shirts and air conditioners. Trump responded by barring Canadian products from federal contracts.

On Aug. 22, the US had imposed 50% duties on an estimated $28 billion of Canadian goods — including beer, cheese, and electronics — prompting Carney to tell reporters: “We were attacked. You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked. That’s fine. We’ve got the reserves. We’ve got the resilience. We’ve got the plan. We’ve got the focus. We will respond.”

Trump reacted to those comments by signing an executive order renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” and threatening to hike US tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts starting Jan. 1.

Under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, Trump had repeatedly suggested that Canada could become the 51st state — even mocking the then-PM as “Governor” — causing deteriorating relations between the countries who share the world’s longest undefended border.

Despite the two nations’ long history of friendship, the militaries of both countries are known to have drawn up battle plans if relations turn sour.

Following World War I, the head of Canadian military intelligence, Lt. Col. James Sutherland Brown, conceived “Defence Scheme No. 1,” laying out a pre-emptive strike on the US in the event of a conflict between America and the British Empire.

Meanwhile, in Washington, the War Department drew up what it called “Plan Red,” one of a series of hypothetical strategies that considered how to counter an attempted invasion of the US.

Plan Red, which was shelved with the outbreak of World War II and declassified in 1974, called for a lightning strike on the port of Halifax in Nova Scotia; the seizure of power plants near Niagara Falls; and finally, a three-pronged invasion to capture Montreal, the rail hub at Winnipeg in Manitoba, and the nickel mines of northern Ontario.