Champions League Permutations: Every Team’s Chances of Qualifying According to the Opta Supercomputer

The remainder of the new-look league phase of the Champions League needs some explaining. Here, we run down everything that can happen with the help of the Opta supercomputer.

It’s official. The Champions League has never been more confusing.

That might be something to do with this new format just being something we’re not used to. We’ve never experienced an eight-game, 36-team league, with seven matchdays gone. Add to that the fact that the top eight go through to the last 16 while the teams that finish between ninth and 24th go into a play-off round to qualify for the last 16, and working out what is going on and what every team needs to do in the final round of fixtures next Wednesday is pretty difficult.

That’s where we come in.

Here, we summarise what each team needs to do in their final match of the league phase, enlisting the help of the Opta supercomputer to tell us each team’s chances of making the knockouts.

Matchday 8 Fixtures

• Aston Villa (9th) vs Celtic (18th)
• Barcelona (2nd) vs Atalanta (7th)
• Bayer Leverkusen (8th) vs Sparta Prague (29th)
• Bayern Munich (15th) vs Slovan Bratislava (35th)
• Borussia Dortmund (14th) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (27th)
• Brest (13th)  vs Real Madrid (16th)
• Dinamo Zagreb (26th) vs Milan (6th)
• Girona (31st) vs Arsenal (3rd)
• Internazionale (4th) vs Monaco (10th)
• Juventus (17th) vs Benfica (21st)
• Lille (12th) vs Feyenoord (11th)
• Manchester City (25th) vs Club Brugge (20th)
• PSV (19th) vs Liverpool (1st)
• Red Bull Salzburg (34th) vs Atlético Madrid (5th)
• Sturm Graz (33rd) vs RB Leipzig (30th)
• Sporting CP (23rd) vs Bologna (28th)
• VfB Stuttgart (24th) vs Paris Saint-Germain (22nd)
• Young Boys (36th) vs Crvena zvezda (32nd)

The Top Two

Liverpool and Barcelona are the only two teams mathematically guaranteed to be in the top eight. Arne Slot’s side have a 100% record but have not yet sealed first place after Raphinha’s dramatic late winner at Benfica on Tuesday, but Liverpool are guaranteed a top-two finish, while Barça will also confirm their place in the top two spots with a positive result against Atalanta on the final matchday.

The next questions are: does it matter whether they finish first or second, or whether Barça are also even in the top two?

There is no difference between first and second because the path of the teams finishing in the top two spots is decided by a draw (essentially a flip of a coin).

This new format is supposed to provide some motivation to finish second rather than third, although it’s not clear that there will be any advantage to doing so on this occasion. The top two teams will be drawn in the round of 16 against the two teams that win their play-off from the four that finish in positions 15, 16, 17 and 18: that’s currently Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus and Celtic.

A lot will change after the final round of fixtures, though, so Madrid and Bayern could well finish higher up the table.

Nils Mackay /

Nils Mackay /

Have Arsenal Already Qualified?

The Opta supercomputer caused a bit of a stir on Wednesday night when it was put to Mikel Arteta after Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb that his team was guaranteed to qualify directly for the last 16.

It is mathematically possible for Arsenal to finish outside the top eight, but it is very, very, very unlikely. So unlikely, in fact, that in the Opta supercomputer’s latest round of 10,000 simulations for the final matchday of the league phase of the 2024-25 Champions League, Arteta’s side finished in the top eight all 10,000 times.

In other words, we aren’t saying it is 100% certain that Arsenal will make the top eight, just that every single time the Opta supercomputer simulated the final round of matches, Arsenal did enough to qualify.

For Arsenal to fail to finish in the top eight, they must lose to Girona and five of the six following results need to happen:

• Inter win or draw OR Monaco win and make up a goal difference of nine to Arsenal
• Atlético Madrid win (vs Salzburg)
• Milan win (vs Dinamo Zagreb)
• Atalanta win (vs Barcelona)
• Bayer Leverkusen win and make up six goal difference to Arsenal (vs Sparta Prague)
• One of Aston Villa/Feyenoord/Lille/Brest win and make up a goal difference of seven to 10 dependent on the team winning.

In other words, it’s almost certain that Arsenal will be in the top eight. A win against already-eliminated Girona will guarantee Arsenal a spot in the top four.

The Rest of the Top Eight

Inter (97.7%), Atlético Madrid (81.5%), Bayer Leverkusen (75.5%) and Milan (73.6%) all have a very good chance of making the top eight, finishing in those positions in the vast majority of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.

They will all, as a minimum, make the play-off round, but the supercomputer is backing them to hold on to the top-eight positions they currently occupy. They each face winnable fixtures to finish off the league phase.

Inter only need a point to guarantee a top-eight spot, but with teams all the way down to 18th within three points of Atlético and Milan, both need a win to be sure of their position.

Leverkusen are only in the top eight on goal difference as things stand, so they need a win at home to eliminated Sparta Prague, which the supercomputer is backing them to get.

Aston Villa’s Hopes

Aston Villa fell to a disappointing 1-0 defeat in Monaco on Tuesday to leave them ninth – one place outside the crucial top eight – heading into the final round of fixtures.

However, the supercomputer is backing them to claw their way into the automatic qualification spots, giving them a 52.6% chance. They face Celtic at home on Matchday 8, and a win will see them overtake any of the four teams above them if they fail to win.

Villa’s biggest hope will lie in Atalanta slipping up. The Italians travel to Barcelona for their final game, and with the Catalans needing a result to hold on to a top-two berth, Atalanta face a tough task to retain their one-point advantage over Villa. They have a 35.1% chance of making the top eight. A point away to Barcelona may well not be enough.

Top Eight Outsiders

Lille (33.1%) are the only other team given a reasonable chance of sneaking into the automatic qualification spots, though they would have to beat Feyenoord (13.1%) and then rely on other results going their way.

Borussia Dortmund (11.8%), Bayern Munich (7.9%), Brest (7.3%), Monaco (7.0%), Real Madrid (2.9%), Juventus (0.8%) are the only other teams that made it into the top eight in any of the supercomputer’s simulations. Each would require a win and a handful of other results to go their way to jump up into the top eight, but they are at least guaranteed to make the play-off round. Celtic are also sure to finish in the top 24.

But while Celtic, along with PSV Eindhoven and Club Brugge, are mathematically still in with a chance of making the top eight, their chances are so slim that they didn’t qualify automatically in any of the supercomputer’s simulations. Those three are as good as certain to finish in the play-off spots, according to those simulations.

Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain, Sporting CP and VfB Stuttgart are all on 10 points, three points off the top eight, but none can make it into the top eight positions due to some teams above them – such as Lille and Feyenoord – facing each other. Lille vs Feyenoord alone guarantees that the team finishing in eighth will have at least 14 points.

The Race for the Remaining Play-Off Spots

Along with PSV (100%) and Celtic (100%), Club Brugge (93.9%), Sporting (91.5%), PSG (86.0%) and Benfica (83.6%) are all extremely likely to make the play-off round.

Stuttgart (65.7%) and Manchester City (63.8%) are both given a good chance of joining them. A win for City against Club Brugge will be enough for them to qualify, while Stuttgart need a point at PSG to be sure of their spot.

Dinamo Zagreb need a win at home to European giants Milan to stand any chance of jumping into the top 24 spots, but they will also be relying on other results going their way, too. They have a 15.3% chance of success, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Shakhtar Donetsk are clinging on by the smallest of threads. They require a win away to Borussia Dortmund and a goal difference swing of at least five goals to catch one of the four teams currently on 10 points. The supercomputer gives them a 0.1% chance of making it into the play-off round.

Does It Matter Where Man City Finish?

At this stage, City will just be happy to make the play-off round. A win over Club Brugge will guarantee their spot in the top 24, but if all the other teams above them who need a positive result succeed, City will finish in 24th, the final play-off position.

That would mean they faced a two-legged play-off against the team that finishes in ninth – currently Aston Villa, who beat them 2-1 in their Premier League meeting last month – and if they won that, they’d face the team who finishes eighth in the league phase in the last 16.

In theory, climbing a couple of places would earn City a more favourable play-off opponent, but the truth is that elimination is a real possibility (36.2%) right now, so they’ll take anything they can get.

Brugge need to avoid defeat at the Etihad to qualify, and given they are currently on a 15-match unbeaten streak, they may fancy their chances. That run includes four Champions League games against Villa (1-0), Celtic (1-1), Sporting (2-1) and Juventus (0-0). They are no pushovers.

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