Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction

We look ahead to Tuesday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction and preview. Enzo Maresca’s men hope to restore momentum to their European push.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer has Chelsea as the favourites to win this one, with the hosts winning 56% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Bournemouth have netted more goals via substitutes than any other side in the Premier League this season (10). Excluding own goals, 33% of their goals this term have come off the bench (10/30), the highest share for any side in a single Premier League campaign.
• Bournemouth are one of just four sides to win more away (three) Premier League games against Chelsea than they have at home (one), alongside Brentford, Burnley and Wimbledon.

Chelsea will bid to end a four-game run without a Premier League win when they host in-form Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday.

Chelsea were being spoken about as title challengers towards the end of 2024, but defeats against Fulham and Ipswich Town, and draws with Everton and Crystal Palace look to have put an end to those hopes, leaving them 10 points behind leaders Liverpool having played a game more than Arne Slot’s Reds.

European qualification remains very much a possibility, though, with Enzo Maresca’s side sitting fourth ahead of the midweek fixtures. However, just three points separates the Blues and Tuesday’s opponents Bournemouth in seventh.

Chelsea could do with a return to form, their four-game blip coming directly after a run of five consecutive Premier League victories. They last had a longer streak without a win in the same season between March and May 2023 (7).

Despite his team’s recent league form, Cole Palmer has still been performing, finding the net twice across those four games to take him to 19 Premier League goal involvements (13 goals, 6 assists) this season, second only to Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (31). The last Chelsea player to register 20+ goals and assists in consecutive campaigns was Eden Hazard, who did so in his first three campaigns with the club.

Palmer has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (57), while he’s also the only player to have created 10 or more chances for two different teammates (15 for Noni Madueke, 11 for Nicolas Jackson).

Bournemouth have European ambitions of their own, unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W5 D3). Only Liverpool (15) and Arsenal (10) are on longer runs without defeat, while it’s the Cherries’ longest ever unbeaten streak in the competition.

Things could’ve been even better for Bournemouth, who have scored 30 goals from an expected goals (xG) total of 39.9 in the Premier League this season. They are underperforming compared to their xG more than any other side (-9.9) – as a result, they’re four places lower in the table than they should be according to our expected points model.

Jonny Whitmore / Senior Data Editor

Whether Bournemouth can sustain their European push could come down to the strength of their squad compared to the likes of fellow challengers Newcastle United and Manchester City.

It’s already being tested, with strikers Evanilson and Enes Ünal out with long-term injuries while Marcos Senesi, Alex Scott and Marcus Tavernier will also be absent on Tuesday.

Chelsea have selection issues of their own, with Wesley Fofana potentially out for the rest of the season, and Mykhailo Mudryk remains absent while an “adverse finding” in a doping test last month continues to be investigated. Madueke could feature though after missing the 5-0 FA Cup thumping of League Two Morecambe on Saturday.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head

Having lost consecutive Premier League games against Bournemouth in 2019, Chelsea are now unbeaten in their last six meetings (W4 D2).

Bournemouth won three of their first five Premier League away games against Chelsea (L2) but have since lost their last two visits to Stamford Bridge.

The last clash between the sides was at the Vitality Stadium in September, with a late Christopher Nkunku winner enough to earn Chelsea a 1-0 victory.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction

Chelsea are backed by the Opta supercomputer to return to winning ways in the Premier League on Tuesday, coming out victorious in 56% of pre-match simulations.

Bournemouth come away with the three points 22.6% of the time, while the Cherries stretch their undefeated streak to nine in all competitions with a draw in 21.4% of simulations.

Despite the slender three-point gap between the two teams, the Opta supercomputer gives far more credibility to Chelsea’s chances of finishing in the top four, with their probability of doing so rated at 47.5% to Bournemouth’s 5.1%.

In fact, Chelsea’s most probable final position is fourth (24.2%), while Bournemouth’s is seventh, though Andoni Iraola’s men come fifth to reach the Europa League in 7% of simulations.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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