Chiefs again or will Lions roar? Lowdown on NFL play-offs

NFL play-offs

Dates: 10-26 January 2025

BBC coverage: Live text coverage of every match on the BBC Sport website and app, and live radio commentary of selected games on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra and BBC Sounds.

After 272 games the NFL regular season is in the books and now the race to the Super Bowl is firmly under way as we enter play-off football.

The 32 teams that began with dreams of glory have been trimmed to the final 14 who will contest 12 games over three weeks to find out who will play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans in February.

This is gridiron on another level. Players leave everything out there on the field and coaches delve deep into their playbooks to find that one extra play that could make all the difference.

For the first time in 12 years, every play-off side won 10 or more games this season so the quality is there - and when it comes down to 'win or go home' that usually results in some epic contests.

So here we will have a look at the teams, the play-off mechanics and the big talking points that will decide who will run out at Super Bowl 59.

The Detroit Lions hammered the Minnesota Vikings in the final game of the season to grab the top seed in the NFC, meaning they join the Kansas City Chiefs in sitting out the first round.

The top four seeds are division winners, and you can see why some think that should be changed when the Vikings, Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers all have better records than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams but have to play away games first up.

AFC seedings (season record)

1. Chiefs (15-2) 2. Bills (13-4) 3. Ravens (12-5) 4. Texans (10-7) 5. Chargers (11-6) 6. Steelers (10-7) 7. Broncos (10-7)

NFC seedings

1. Lions (15-2) 2. Eagles (14-3) 3. Buccaneers (10-7) 4. Rams (10-7) 5. Vikings (14-3) 6. Commanders (12-5) 7. Packers (11-6)

Basically, the Chiefs and Lions sit out Wildcard Weekend, then they will play at home for as long as they remain in the play-offs.

The pair will host the lowest remaining seeds in the Divisional Round, with the next highest seed hosting the fourth and final team in the other game.

And that is repeated in the final round, with the highest remaining seed playing at home in the Conference Championships - effectively the Super Bowl semi-finals.

Saturday, 11 January

Sunday, 12 January

Monday, 13 January

Chargers @ Texans

Jim Harbaugh's Chargers are one of two road favourites, with six away wins this season, thanks to quarterback Justin Herbert having the most efficient year of his career and the meanest defence in the NFL allowing just 17.7 points a game.

CJ Stroud's stuttering Texans attack eclipsed 23 points just twice in their final 11 games, and went 1-5 against play-off teams and 1-5 against top 10 scoring defences. They'll need their defence, which is the second-best at pressuring quarterbacks in the play-offs, to win this one.

Steelers @ Ravens

A third meeting this season between heated enemies Baltimore and Pittsburgh, with the Steelers dominating this rivalry by winning eight out of nine before being thumped in the last meeting.

Mike Tomlin seemed to be MVP candidate Lamar Jackson's kryptonite, but the wheels came off Pittsburgh's season down the stretch. Being without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers will hurt Baltimore so expect Jackson and Derrick Henry to run them to victory.

Broncos @ Bills

Broncos head coach Sean Payton has worked wonders, his team's defence has been fearsome, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has improved all season to lead Denver to the play-offs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago.

Josh Allen has been unstoppable at times though and the Bills were unbeatable at home in the regular season. They were the second top scorers and behind Allen's brilliance they avoided the mistakes that dogged them in recent years - in fact, they are the only team in Super Bowl times to allow an average of fewer than one sack and one turnover a game.

Packers @ Eagles

These two started the season with the Eagles winning the NFL's first ever game in Brazil, and Philadelphia are fancied for a repeat at home with probably the most talented roster in the NFL and possibly the best defence right now.

The big question here is over both quarterbacks with Jalen Hurts having concussion and Jordan Love a bad elbow, so running backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs will see plenty of action. The combined 25 wins between these two is the most ever in a wildcard game.

Commanders @ Buccaneers

These two also met in week one, Tampa Bay winning that, and they have a better overall team led by all-action quarterback Baker Mayfield, but rookie Jayden Daniels has thrilled at times for Washington - especially with some incredible late heroics.

Both sides averaged over 28 points a game, which is rare for a wildcard meeting, both have home run hitters at receiver and neither quarterback knows when he is beaten. This has late drama written all over it.

Vikings @ Rams

Minnesota are the first team to win 14 games but still end up as a wildcard, such was their misfortune at being in Detroit's division, and how they handle the disappointment of last week's Lions humbling will be crucial.

They lost at the Rams in week eight and Los Angeles coach Sean McVay rested a bunch of starters for his team's final game of the season to keep them fresh. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford knows how to win a Super Bowl and he and his colleagues will be sharp and ready - even if the game gets moved to Arizona because of the wildfires around Los Angeles.

The bookmakers have Detroit as favourites ahead of defending champions Kansas City. The Lions are one of four teams never to even play in the Super Bowl, but they were the best attacking team in the league, with their 68 touchdowns the second most ever.

Detroit's defence has been decimated by injury as well so if they can get some players back, having home advantage as well, they will be tough to stop.

The Chiefs will always be the Chiefs and will take some stopping, while the Ravens and Bills both have high-powered offences behind MVP-worthy quarterbacks - but if they both win they will face each other in the second round.

Philadelphia look to be the pick of the NFC after Detroit, and most Super Bowl predictions involve those five teams. This is the NFL though and it is never that simple.

The big question this post-season concerns whether Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs can become the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row.

They have questions to answer despite having the same 15-2 record as the Lions, because whereas Detroit blew teams away with a +222 points difference, the Chiefs were clawing and scraping wins with just a +59 points difference in their favour.

Most of their top starters last played on Christmas Day, so by the time they walk out in the second round they will have had three weeks off. Will they be well rested or ring rusty?

They did make the Super Bowl in 2020 with a similar plan, though, and there are no style points, so whether winning one-score games or on the last play, all they do is win.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has 26 play-off wins, the second most in history, so knows exactly what he is doing.

Mahomes has reached four Super Bowls in his six seasons as a starter, making at least the Conference Championship each year. He has as many Super Bowl rings as he does play-off losses (three) and his 15 play-off wins trail only Joe Montana (16) and Tom Brady (35).

Having been snubbed by the Pro Bowl voting, Mahomes might have a chip on his shoulder too, which is the last thing the rest of the field needs.

The Chiefs have used every trick in the book to get the job done and until someone not named Tom Brady or Joe Burrow proves they can go to Arrowhead Stadium and beat them, they remain the team everyone has to fear.

And what all these teams are working towards, Super Bowl 59, is being held in New Orleans at the Superdome, home of the Saints, on 9 February and will kick off at 23:30 GMT.

It will be a record seventh Super Bowl at the stadium and joint record 11th time the event has been staged in New Orleans.