Donald Duke Targets 23-Cent Petrol in Nigeria

Politics: Nigeria

Donald Duke wants to cut Nigeria’s petrol price by about four-fifths, from roughly N1,400 a litre to about N300 (about US$0.23). The pledge puts fuel at the centre of a race that votes on 16 January 2027.

What We Know

On Wednesday 7 October 2026, Duke told Channels Television that he would “try and bring it to about 300 naira” a litre. At N1,326 to the dollar (EODHD, 7 October), that is about 23 US cents.

Daily Trust reports that petrol now sells at about N1,400 a litre (about US$1.06) in Lagos and Abuja, and up to N1,500 (about US$1.13) in northern markets. The pledge would cut the Lagos price by about 79%.

“I’m going to price petroleum products for local consumption at production costs, not at international market costs,” Duke said. He would set aside crude for home use at that cost and sell the rest at world prices, starting from 600,000 barrels a day “if that’s what you consume daily.”

He cites a production cost of about US$45 a barrel, and a lower figure of about US$30, according to Daily Trust. His case is that fuel drives the economy and should be both available and affordable.

The National Assembly building in Abuja, Nigeria. File photo.

The Arithmetic Behind N300

A barrel holds about 159 litres, so US$45 a barrel works out at about 28 US cents a litre, or roughly N375 at today’s rate. That is already above the N300 target before transport and retail margins, by our own calculation from Duke’s figures.

Even his lower figure of US$30 a barrel is about 19 US cents a litre, or roughly N250. That leaves little room for distribution and pump margins under a N300 price.

Crude is also not petrol. A refinery makes diesel, kerosene and other fuels too, and 600,000 barrels is about 95 million litres of crude a day, while Daily Trust cites regulator figures for petrol use of 60.2 million litres a day in January 2026 and 47.4 million in June.

A Crowded Field of Fuel Promises

Adewole Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party has promised N200 a litre (about US$0.15) within 12 months, according to Aminiya. Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress would restore the fuel subsidy, the state support that held pump prices down until its removal.

The National Bureau of Statistics put the average petrol price at N1,596 a litre in May (about US$1.20 at today’s rate), as we reported. That is the pain point every candidate now pitches against.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, prices the Nigerian presidential election winner at Bola Tinubu 71.0% and Peter Obi 24.0%, with about US$128,820 traded (7 October 2026, 8:07 p.m. ET). Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows Tinubu 71%, Obi 17%, Kashim Shettima 8% and Atiku Abubakar 3%, across 13,632 contracts traded.

Neither market lists Donald Duke among its leading names in the data we checked. Prices are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

We have seen no costed plan from Duke and no independent assessment of the pledge. He himself conceded in the interview that it may sound outlandish, reports say, and said he had given the arithmetic.

The coverage we reviewed does not say how the reserved crude would be bought or how refiners would be paid. Nor does it say how long the N300 price would take to reach pumps.

What It Means for US Readers and Investors

Nigeria is a major crude producer, so fuel pricing touches oil revenue, the naira and the federal budget. Investors in Nigerian bonds and banks will watch whether the campaign turns toward cheaper fuel or toward subsidies.

The pledges show that petrol, not only inflation or the exchange rate, is likely to decide how many Nigerians vote. For US readers with a stake in West African energy, the race is a test of how far deregulated fuel prices can survive an election year.

More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Donald Duke promise on petrol?

He said he would try to bring petrol down to about N300 a litre (about US$0.23) if elected president. His plan is to price fuel for local use at production cost rather than international prices.

Who is Donald Duke?

Duke is a former governor of Cross River State. He is the presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party for the 2027 election.

When is Nigeria’s presidential election?

The Independent National Electoral Commission has set the presidential election for Saturday 16 January 2027. It moved the date forward from 20 February 2027.

How much is N300 in US dollars?

At about N1,326 to the dollar (EODHD, 7 October 2026), N300 is about US$0.23. Today’s pump price of about N1,400 is about US$1.06.