By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-19 11:56:27 | Updated at 2026-06-21 09:33:24
1 day ago
Ecuador and Curaçao will be looking to keep their FIFA World Cup campaigns alive when they meet in Kansas City on Saturday.
Ecuador vs Curaçao: The Key Insights
- After their heavy opening game defeat, the Opta supercomputer gives Curaçao just a 4.7% win probability against Ecuador.
- Ecuador are winless in three games at the World Cup (D1 L2) since their 2-0 victory over Qatar in 2022.
- This is Curaçao’s second World Cup match – only three CONCACAF nations have ever recorded a victory in one of their opening two matches in the competition (USA in 1930, Cuba in 1938, Costa Rica in 1990).
Curaçao will be hoping to bounce back from their heavy opening loss to Germany when they take on Ecuador in FIFA World Cup Group E at Kansas City Stadium on Saturday.
After a short period of joy and excitement when Livano Comenencia scored Curaçao’s first World Cup goal to make it 1-1 against Germany, things quickly went south and Dick Advocaat’s side slumped to a resounding 7-1 defeat.
It made Curaçao just the second side to concede at least seven goals in their first World Cup match. South Korea were the first when they lost 9-0 to Hungary in 1954.
Advocaat, however, remained confident that the Blue Wave could have a successful campaign and avoid joining Haiti (10 in 1974), DR Congo (11 in 1974) and South Korea (16 in 1954) as the only sides to concede 10+ goals in their first two matches.
“We need to turn this into a beautiful tournament,” Advocaat told reporters after the defeat to Germany.
“We can have a surprise in the second and third match. In the end we will be glad we were part of the biggest football tournament in the world.”
If Comenencia helps them achieve that by scoring again, he will become the third player to score in both of a CONCACAF nation’s first two World Cup matches. Bert Patenaude was the first to achieve the feat for the United States in 1930, but no one has managed it since Héctor Socorro for Cuba in 1938.
Should Curaçao suffer another loss here and Ivory Coast avoid defeat against Germany in Group E’s other match, they will be eliminated.
Ecuador are unlikely to be complacent against them after going down 1-0 to Amad Diallo’s late strike for Ivory Coast in their opener in Philadelphia.
That was Ecuador’s first defeat in 20 matches in all competitions, a run that stretched all the way back to a 1-0 defeat to Brazil in September 2024.
They are now winless in three at the World Cup, which is their joint-longest run without a victory in the competition’s history (alongside a run of three defeats between 2006 and 2014).
Sebastian Beccacece’s side also go into the game knowing that, should they succumb to a shock defeat, their World Cup will likely be over – the only thing that could save them would be Germany getting the better of Ivory Coast.
Ecuador may well consider themselves unlucky to be in such a position, having hit the woodwork against Ivory Coast through Alan Minda, Enner Valencia and John Yeboah before Amad’s added-time winner.
But with Germany being their final opponents in Group E, this is not a chance they can afford to pass up.
“When you don’t start the way you wanted, the anxiety appears,” said Beccacece.
“But now we need more conviction than ever, more belief than ever, more confidence than ever.”
The stellar distribution of Willian Pacho and Moisés Caicedo should enable them to control possession against Curaçao, who will likely look to play a counter-attacking game.
Neither side are expected to be contending with any injury concerns.
Ecuador vs Curaçao Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting between Ecuador and Curaçao, but Beccacece’s side are in solid form against CONCACAF opponents.
Ecuador are unbeaten in their previous 13 such matches across all competitions since a 3-2 loss to Mexico in June 2019, winning seven and drawing six.
They have been triumphant in their last two World Cup matches against CONCACAF nations too, overcoming Costa Rica 3-0 in 2006 and beating Honduras 2-1 in 2014.
Curaçao, meanwhile, have lost just one of their last three meetings with CONMEBOL teams (W1 D1). However, that was a 7-0 defeat against Argentina in a March 2023 friendly, which included a Lionel Messi hat-trick.
Ecuador vs Curaçao Prediction
Unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer makes Ecuador the overwhelming favourites for this match.
Across the 25,000 pre-match simulations, Ecuador came on top in a whopping 86.1% of them. The probability of a draw is 9.2%, with Curaçao taking all three points in just 4.7% of projections.
Curaçao will know that no one expects them to get anything from the game, but by taking points off Spain and Portugal respectively, DR Congo and Cape Verde have already shown that less experienced sides in this competition can have their day.
Ecuador vs Curaçao Squads
Ecuador: Hernán Galíndez, Moisés Ramírez, Gonzalo Valle, Félix Torres, Piero Hincapié, Joel Ordóñez, Willian Pacho, Pervis Estupiñán, Ángelo Preciado, Jackson Porozo, Yaimar Medina, Jordy Alcívar, Kendry Páez, Pedro Vite, Denil Castillo, Alan Franco, Moisés Caicedo, Anthony Valencia, John Yeboah, Kevin Rodríguez, Enner Valencia, Alan Minda, Jordy Caicedo, Gonzalo Plata, Nilson Angulo, Jeremy Arévalo.
Curaçao: Eloy Room, Tyrick Bodak, Trevor Doornbusch, Shurandy Sambo, Juriën Gaari, Roshon van Eijma, Sherel Floranus, Livano Comenencia, Armando Obispo, Joshua Brenet, Riechedly Bazoer, Deveron Fonville, Godfried Roemeratoe, Juninho Bacuna, Leandro Bacuna, Tyrese Noslin, Ar’Jany Martha, Tahith Chong, Kevin Felida, Jürgen Locadia, Jeremy Antonisse, Sontje Hansen, Kenji Gorré, Jearl Margaritha, Brandley Kuwas, Gervane Kastaneer.
Ecuador vs Curaçao Predicted Lineups
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