By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-15 12:36:15 | Updated at 2026-10-16 16:55:17
1 day ago
Xabi Alonso’s side will want to back up a fine Premier League showing last weekend with another win. We look ahead to Saturday’s clash with our Everton vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Everton vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations struggled to split these two teams. Everton have a 42.9% chance of victory, ahead of Chelsea’s 30.4% likelihood of winning.
- Chelsea have won just one of their previous nine Premier League visits to Everton.
- João Pedro’s eight goal involvements are the most of any player in the competition this season.
Chelsea will hope for another strong performance when they visit unbeaten Everton for Saturday’s Premier League clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
João Pedro and Jordan Henderson both scored twice, with Morgan Rogers also on target at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea hammered Bournemouth 5-1 last time out.
That showing against Marco Rose’s side marked an impressive response after Chelsea headed into the international break following a 3-0 defeat away to Brentford. João Pedro missed that loss to their west London rivals with a knee injury, but his return last weekend showed just how important the Brazilian is to Xabi Alonso’s plans.
Indeed, João Pedro has been involved in more goals than any other player in the Premier League this season (5 goals, 3 assists). He has also registered at least two goal involvements in four of his five appearances.
Everton must be wary of Chelsea’s fast starts, too. They have scored five goals in the opening five minutes of their Premier League games this campaign, leading 2-0 after just three minutes against Bournemouth.
Only in 1994-95 (6) and 2014-15 (6) have Chelsea netted more goals inside the opening five minutes of a single campaign, with that record surely set to be shattered by Alonso’s new-look side.
But they do have issues at the other end. Despite scoring the third-most goals, no side has conceded more than Chelsea’s 13 in the competition (level with Newcastle United).
Although Emiliano Martínez was signed in August to support a leaky defence, Chelsea have still conceded in each of their last 22 league games. Only once have they had a longer run without a clean sheet, going 31 games between November 1960 and August 1961.
Considering that poor defensive record, Everton’s Thierno Barry may be looking forward to this encounter. He has scored in his last two top-flight outings, having found the net in just one of seven games before that.
The last of those goals came in Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Hull City, where Barry had five ‘big’ chances – a situation where a player is reasonably expected to score – but took only one of those in the second half.
“More to come I promise, I know I can have more. Still learning,” Barry wrote on social media after his performance at the MKM Stadium.
David Moyes will now be challenging his striker to find the net in three straight league appearances for the first time since August 2024, when he did so for Basel in the Swiss Super League.
Moyes felt Barry’s smart finish against Hull should have been enough for all three points, but Everton were pegged back by Mohamed Belloumi’s equaliser. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall had earlier hauled the Toffees level after Joe Gelhardt’s opener.
The Everton boss may have few complaints, though. His side are one of only three teams – along with leaders Manchester City and Brentford – yet to lose in this Premier League campaign.
Everton’s record stands at two wins and four draws from their opening six games; only in 2006-07 have they had a longer undefeated run from the start of a campaign in the competition (seven matches).
That has taken them to fifth in the table, level on 10 points with Chelsea, and Moyes may fancy his chances of moving three clear of their opponents with home advantage here.
Despite never winning in 21 attempts as a Premier League manager at Stamford Bridge, Moyes has eight victories in 13 home games against Chelsea (D2 L3). Those wins are split equally across his spells with Everton and former club West Ham.
He will hope to welcome back Vitalii Mykolenko for this clash after the Ukrainian returned from international duty injured, with no other fitness concerns among Everton’s small squad.
Saturday may come too soon for Chelsea captain Reece James, whose hamstring issue saw him miss the Bournemouth thrashing. Jamie Gittens is also out with an ankle injury sustained on England Under-21’s duty.
Everton vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Chelsea’s first visit to the Hill Dickinson ended in a 3-0 defeat back in March as Beto scored twice before Iliman Ndiaye’s finish for Everton.
Not since 1999-00 and 2000-01 have Chelsea lost their first two Premier League away games at a new stadium, going down twice at Sunderland’s Stadium of Light.
But Chelsea have regularly struggled on the blue half of Merseyside, where they have won just one of their last nine league trips to Everton (D2 L6). The Blues failed to score in seven of those games, including each of the last three.
By contrast, Everton will be looking for back-to-back Premier League home wins against Chelsea for the first time since beating them in March and December 2019 under Marco Silva and Duncan Ferguson respectively.
Everton vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea have struggled on their recent visits to Everton, and the Opta supercomputer makes the hosts the favourites to win this one.
Moyes’ side have the highest likelihood of winning (42.9%), but Chelsea still boast a respectable 30.4% of all three points in the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
The draw accounted for 26.7% of data-led sims.
Everton vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, Jarrad Branthwaite, Harrison Armstrong, James Garner, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Brennan Johnson, Jack Grealish, Thierno Barry.
Head coach: David Moyes
Chelsea: Emiliano Martínez, Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Jordan Henderson, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Pep Chavarría, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, João Pedro.
Head coach: Xabi Alonso
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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