One corner of Florida's battered housing market could be showing the first signs of a surprising turnaround after years of pressure from high mortgage rates, soaring insurance costs and weaker demand.
The Sunshine State has been one of the country's most volatile housing markets, with sales slowing sharply as affordability deteriorated.
A new report suggests Florida may now be starting to bounce back - with real estate experts pointing to wealthy buyers, retirees and corporate relocations as the forces behind the change.
In July, Florida recorded a 'strong increase in home sales along with price recovering,' according to National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun.
That marks a notable change from a year earlier, when the state's housing market was in decline.
'Florida's housing market is showing more resilience than the national market,' said Hannah Jones, a senior economist at Realtor.com. 'The clearest strength, though, is at the top of the market.'
Florida home sales priced at more than $1 million climbed 9.6 percent year over year in July. Luxury properties now account for 11.4 percent of all transactions in the state, compared with between 8.4 and 9 percent nationally.
Miami is showing an even stronger performance at the high end of the market. The overall picture is more complicated, however.
The so-called Sunshine State has been one of the country's most volatile housing markets, with sales slowing sharply as affordability deteriorated
Florida home sales are still down 6.1 percent so far this year compared with the same period in 2025, according to Realtor.com's analysis of deed data. But that decline is smaller than the 8.2 percent drop recorded nationally.
There is another encouraging sign for sellers: homes are spending less time on the market. Median days on market in Florida have fallen 6.4 percent year over year, one of the largest improvements recorded by any state.
Mike Simonsen, chief economist at Compass, describes Florida as a 'high-beta market' - meaning its housing market tends to experience bigger swings than the country as a whole.
'Like a high-beta stock, it goes up faster in boom markets and can fall faster during slowdown periods,' he told Realtor.com.
That volatility may now be working in Florida's favor. Compass is seeing particularly strong activity in the state's luxury market.
Pending sales of luxury single-family homes have jumped 22.1 percent year over year, while pending sales of luxury condos are up 24.1 percent.
Luxury listing prices have risen around 1 percent statewide, while Miami has recorded a much more dramatic 20.9 percent increase.
At the same time, single-family inventory has dropped 17.1 percent from a year ago. One possible explanation is that some buyers who stepped away from Florida after the pandemic are beginning to return.
The state was hit by a particularly difficult hurricane season in 2024, while 2025 passed without a similarly severe storm - potentially giving hesitant buyers more confidence.
Luxury listing prices have risen around 1 percent statewide, while Miami has recorded a much more dramatic 20.9 percent increase
'We had, obviously, a big accelerated moving and migration pattern during Covid, and those trends have slowed down,' Simonsen said.
'Now, we're four years later and so people who didn't move during the pandemic, retirees, are picking up the pace.'
Florida's appeal to wealthy international buyers and retirees is also helping support what Simonsen calls the state's 'wealth effect.'
For buyers looking for a more affordable home, the recovery is considerably less impressive.
'Nearly all of the state's relative resilience is coming from the top of the market,' Jones said.
Luxury sales are up almost 10 percent, while the broader market for homes below $1 million is estimated to be down closer to 8 percent. Prices in the lowest-priced quarter of Florida's single-family market have risen just 3.3 percent.
That split could prove important for ordinary households, particularly as Florida continues to grapple with its chronic shortage of affordable homes.
The DeVoe L. Moore Institute at Florida State University estimates the state needs around 121,000 additional housing units to restore its housing supply to levels seen before the 2008 housing crisis. And Florida's rapid population growth has made the problem particularly acute.
Stephen Schoen, director of Walton County Development Services, said the county's population has more than doubled since 2000 to around 93,000.
The influx has created huge demand for expensive beachfront real estate - but also a problem for the workers needed to service those communities.
Mike Simonsen, chief economist at Compass, describes Florida as a 'high-beta market' - meaning its housing market tends to experience bigger swings than the country as a whole
'All that influx of population has led to a need for housing, but it also amplifies all our other shortcomings,' Schoen said.
'Utilities, transportation, infrastructure, recreational opportunities, all of that is tied into the housing shortage.'
Some workers are consequently being pushed inland in search of cheaper homes, while others face lengthy commutes from neighboring Alabama.
The housing picture isn't being driven solely by retirees and wealthy buyers. George Samarjian, managing partner of Florida developer IGEQ, said he is also seeing stronger activity in the rental market as businesses relocate to the state.
His company recently broke ground on a 181-unit luxury apartment development in West Palm Beach.
Samarjian said new office construction and corporate relocations are bringing younger workers into the region. For some, buying a home remains out of reach - but renting provides a way to stay in the state.
'This is just one of the best markets for multifamily,' Samarjian said. 'There has been a lot of growth based on demand and companies relocating.'
That could provide another source of housing demand even if high mortgage rates continue to keep some would-be homeowners on the sidelines.
But Florida still faces major obstacles. The state's property insurance crisis remains a major concern, while property taxes and the cost of homeownership continue to weigh on affordability.
