Great expectations for Lebanon's presidential election

Lebanon has not had a real president for over two years, but that could be set to change this week.

On Thursday, lawmakers are due to make a 13th attempt to elect a new president. According to the Lebanese constitution, the state's power lies with the prime minister and Cabinet. The transitional government under Prime Minister Najib Mikati, however, only has limited powers and has been unable to overcome Lebanon's political and economic problems.

The prospects for a successful election now exist partially because of a the ceasefire agreement that Israel and Hezbollah signed at the end of November, after several weeks of fighting on the ground and Israeli air raids over Lebanon. Previously, Lebanese political opponents had blocked one another's candidates. But now, a president and a functioning executive are needed to credibly implement the ceasefire agreement that expires at the end of January.

The election is taking place against the backdrop of multiple crises in Lebanon. The country has struggled with a severe economic recession for several years now, deposits in banks are frozen and the value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted.

The consequences of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel also resulted in considerable destruction in Lebanon, and repairs will need to be dealt with and paid for.

But the most urgent task for now is to consolidate the ceasefire. Lebanon's government has said that up to 1.3 million people were internally displaced due to conflict, and it's important that these people be able to return home. Lebanon is also interested in seeing the many Syrian refugees living in the country return across the border to their homes.

"The situation is dramatic in many respects," said Michael Bauer, head of the Beirut office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. "That's why it will not be enough to agree on some [presidential] consensus candidate whose legitimacy rests on little more than a minimal compromise between the parties represented in parliament. Instead, it will be important to find a president who credibly embodies a new beginning."

Intense negotiations

The comparatively tight timing before the election has put Lebanese political parties under enormous pressure. Intense prior discussions were necessary to put forward candidates with any real prospect of success. This is because the Lebanese parliament is split into many factions according to the numerous different ethnic and religious groups that make up Lebanon's heterogeneous population.

The electoral process is supposed to comply with the country's traditional confessional system, which designates how the most senior political positions are filled. For example, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.

So far, the most promising candidate in this election is Joseph Aoun, a Maronite Christian and commander-in-chief of the Lebanese armed forces. He's considered to have the opposition's support too and this is mainly due to an apparently newfound willingness to compromise on Hezbollah's part.

General Joseph Aoun has served as the commander of the Lebanese army since 2017Image: Hussam Shbaro/AA/picture alliance

Until recently Hezbollah — which is comprised of a military wing and a political wing and is also heavily involved in social welfare — had favored Sleiman Frangieh for president, an ally of now-deposed Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. But now Hezbollah's new leader, cleric Naim Kassem, has indicated the group would also accept a different candidate.

This change in attitude is partially due to the recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanese political analyst Ronnie Chatah told DW. During the fighting, Hezbollah saw its domestic political influence decline.

"Hezbollah's objection to the army commander-and-chief Joseph Aoun seems to have faded," said Chatah, who also hosts The Beirut Banyan podcast. This means "Hezbollah largely cannot prevent the likelihood of the commander-in-chief becoming the next president of the country."

Najib Mikati (center) has served as Lebanon's interim prime minister since late 2021Image: Lebanese Prime Minister Office/APA/ZUMA/picture alliance

Military most trusted institution

Aoun's potential success can also be explained by his leading one of the only Lebanese institutions — the army — that locals still trust, Bauer said.

"A 'President Joseph Aoun' would be someone who would represent a new, positive force for many Lebanese," Bauer said. "He would also likely have the necessary support among the population. In addition, due to his military background, he would be able to seriously tackle the security tasks that are emerging. This is also likely to have prompted many parties to vote for Aoun as a candidate recently."

Whatever the outcome of this election, the most critical issue is that Lebanon gets a new president, Chatah said. Instead of the transitional and somewhat powerless current government, Lebanon needs an elected government legitimized by voters, as well as a new prime minister and parliament.

"All those are prerequisites for Lebanon to function as a state," Chatah said. "Now, for the first time in two years, there is a possibility that a president will be elected. That is a first positive step." 

This story was originally written in German.