House Democrats' cash advantage in the top 10 most expensive races

The House GOP's worst fears are being confirmed, after they privately sounded the alarm all summer about getting outgunned.

Why it matters: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y) and his allies are outspending Republicans in nine of the 10 most expensive House races of the cycle.

• Still, seven of the most expensive seats are currently held by Democrats, bolstering the GOP's view that they are on offense in 2024.
• Money won't decide who controls of Congress, but it provides a clear advantage.

By the numbers: In the 10 most expensive races, the candidates, parties and outside super PACs are on track to spend $283 million in TV and digital ads, according to data compiled by AdImpact. More money could be dropping.

• That's not far off from what President George W. Bush spent on his entire presidential campaign 20 years ago — $345 million.

Zoom in: The most expensive race is for NY-19, in which Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) is fending off a challenge from Josh Riley, for a combined $35 million.

• It's a rematch of the 2022 contest, in which they unloaded $18.5 million against each other.
• In MI-7, which includes Lansing, the parties have spent nearly $32.8 million — less so far than last cycle's $35.6 million, when it was the most expensive race in the country.
• The priciest racein which Republicans are matching Democratic spending is CA-27, where Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and his opponent, George Whitesides, have each spent around $12.6 million.

What they are saying: "Republicans don't have to outspend Democrats in this strong political environment," said Jack Pandol, the communications director of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

• "But we must be in the game and on message — relentlessly litigating how we will improve voters' quality of life when we fire these Democratic incumbents."
• "Thanks to our historic fundraising advantage, Democrats are not only investing more on the airwaves, but we're able to invest in a holistic operation to get boots on the ground engaging voters and their communities where they are," said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton.

Zoom out: Like a presidential race that's being contested in just seven states, the universe of competitive House seats in 2024 is smaller than any time in recent memory.

• Give or take, there are some 40 competitive House races, according to Cook Political Report.
• Two years ago, Republicans had a target list of 75 Democrats. This cycle it's around 40.
• The Democrats have 33 candidates in their Red to Blue program, which they use to funnel money to promising challengers and first-time candidates.