By Axios | Created at 2024-10-25 09:01:25 | Updated at 2024-10-25 11:28:09
2 hours ago
Data: The Associated Press, Politico; Cartogram: Jacque Schrag/Axios
If 2020 is our guide, it's likely that the 2024 presidential election won't be decided on Election Day.
Why it matters: Any period of uncertainty could see the country thrust into a time of legal drama, paralyzed governance and overall distrust, as Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen reported.
- Because of post-2020 legal changes nationwide — including in all seven swing states — many results could be slower than in 2020, when President Biden declared victory over former President Trump after the Associated Press called Pennsylvania on the Saturday after Election Day.
Flashback: Many of the 2020 results came in quickly, but uncertainty in a few critical states left the outcome unclear.
- The AP called 26 states instantly as their polls closed, and another five within an hour.
- 45 states and the District of Columbia were called within 24 hours, but Biden and Trump remained short of the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory.
- The Pennsylvania call in Biden's favor — over 87 hours after polls closed there — decided the race. The call for Nevada came about 50 minutes later.
What to watch: Key swing states Georgia and North Carolina took much longer to be called in 2020, and it's entirely possible that this year's election could hinge on the results there.
- The AP called North Carolina for Trump on Nov. 13 (10 days) and Georgia for Biden on Nov. 19 (16 days) after hand recounts.
