Iraqi militia, Houthi threat should not be minimalized

As the drones increase in their number and abilities, this will present a new front against Israel that must not be ignored.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN NOVEMBER 17, 2024 14:17 Updated: NOVEMBER 17, 2024 14:19

The scene of a drone impact in Eilat. (photo credit: Via Maariv)

On Sunday morning, sirens sounded in areas near Yavne and Nes Ziona. This is a rare occurrence. The sirens were related to a drone threat.

The IDF said “ashort while ago, sirens were sounded in the areas of Lachish and the Shfela following the identification of a suspicious aerial target that infiltrated into Israeli territory.  The public is asked to continue to follow the defensive guidelines of the Home Front Command.”

Later, the IDF said that “following the sirens that sounded in the areas of Lachish and Shfela, a UAV that crossed into Israeli territory from the east was intercepted by the Israel Air Force.”

This is the usual way events unfold with these attacks. Around six on Saturday morning there were sirens in Eilat.

“Following the sirens that sounded at 05:59 in the area of Eilat, a projectile was identified from the east and it did not cross into Israeli territory. Sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol,” the IDF said. This raises questions about how this threat can be countered or if it will end in the future.

Flames rise as people stand near an object that the Houthi military media says is an American MQ9 Reaper drone they have shot down, in a location given as Al Jawf Governorate, in Yemen, in this screengrab from a video released on November 8, 2024. (credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)

Houthi attacks

The Houthis claimed they had targeted Eilat. It was not clear if it was the same incident as the IDF mentioned. Usually when the IDF says “from the east” this relates to drones launched by pro-Iran militias in Iraq. The difference is not that important, because the drone threat from Iraq, Yemen and Hezbollah is similar. These are all Iranian-backed groups and they often coordinate. They use similar types of drones.

What matters is that these attacks have increased and they come from different directions. The drones are not very large but if they hit an important site they can do damage. More important, their appearance can cause large numbers of people to be sent to shelters. The IDF has to face this complex multi-front drone threat.

The Iraqi militias are keyed into the multi-front war Israel faces. They began attacks in October 2023 after the Hamas attack. They targeted US forces in Iraq and Syria and then expanded their attacks to target Israel. They have increased their attacks over the last months as Hamas has faced losses and as Israel began a ground operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah.

Iran’s Ambassador to Iraq Mohammad-Kazem Al-e-Sadeq said over the weekend “that the Israeli regime is the source of insecurity and instability in the West Asia region,” according to Iranian state media. “Al-e-Sadeq made the comment on Saturday as he hosted Mohamed al Hassan, Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and the UN chief’s new Special Representative for the Arab country.” Iran said it will continue to support Iraq. Iran also backs militias in Iraq, which undermine Iraq’s independence and sovereignty. However, Iran claims it is backing Iraq’s “independence and sovereignty.”

How can the drone threat be countered? In the near-term the Israel air force is the main way to counter it. This can mean scrambling jets to shoot down the drones or using combat helicopters. The drones can be intercepted at a distance using these methods but it requires having aircraft in the air. Air defenses such as Iron Dome also work. However, a drone entering Israeli airspace, such as happened on November 17, may fly over parts of Israel before being shot down. This can cause areas of the country to be under threat.

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 Another way to shoot them down in the future will involve laser air defenses. However, as we have learned with the rocket threat, defending is not enough. The drone threat is complex and presents an increasing challenge. It has turned enemy militias into powerful entities because they now posses a kind of instant air force. In the past Iraq didn’t threaten Israel with its air force. Now its militias do. The drones also have increased range and precision. They are not always easy to detect.

It's possible that if there is a ceasefire with Hamas or Hezbollah, that the drone threat may be reduced as Iran’s proxies and pawns stop their attacks due to Iran’s orders. However, the threat will always be there, awaiting new orders. Iran uses the Iraqi militias to take the pressure off Hezbollah. The Palestinians can now cause the drone threat whenever they choose new attacks. For instance, Hamas might choose a date in the future for a wave of attacks in the West Bank and coordinate with Iran or the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

This requires more careful study and thoughtful approaches as to how to stop this threat in the future. Iran is providing drones to Russia. This is the new way of war.

As the drones increase in their number and abilities, this will present a new front against Israel that must not be ignored. Only defending against it won’t work in the long term. Israel learned on October 7 that being on the defensive enables the enemy to choose the place and time of surprise attacks. The drone threat will exploit this time element in the future. Countering it is an imperative.