Latin American Pulse for Monday, June 22, 2026

The bottom line

1. Colombia turned right. The pro-business lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella won Sunday’s presidential runoff over the leftist Iván Cepeda, and Bogotá’s COLCAP had already raced 4.02% on Friday to a record 2,502.96, up about 10% since the first round.
2. Wall Street sat out Friday. US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, leaving the S&P 500 at Thursday’s 7,500.58 close, while an Israel–Hezbollah truce kept crude sliding to about $77 a barrel, down roughly 8% on the week.
3. Brazil held firm; Argentina caught its breath. The Bovespa inched up to 168,334 after a third straight Selic cut to 14.25%, and Buenos Aires’ Merval eased about 1.3% to near 3.29 million as traders booked profits before Tuesday’s MSCI verdict.

The region’s biggest story this weekend came from the ballot box in Colombia, where voters handed power to the right. The businessman and lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella beat the leftist senator Iván Cepeda in Sunday’s runoff, ending four years of Gustavo Petro’s leftist government on a promise of lower taxes, a smaller state and support for the oil company Ecopetrol.
Investors had front-run the result for weeks, and the COLCAP’s 4.02% leap on Friday to a record 2,502.96 was the clearest sign of their conviction. The index is up about 10% since the first round, and sovereign risk spreads have tightened as markets bet on de la Espriella’s market-friendly running mate, the former finance minister José Manuel Restrepo.

An election that pulls a market up rather than rattling it is a rare thing — and a reminder of how much hope is now priced in.

The catch is the budget he inherits. Colombia’s central bank sees growth of just 2.4% in 2026 and inflation near 6.4%, leaving little room for sweeping tax cuts, so the honeymoon could be short once the spreadsheet meets the promises.

Regional
Jun 22, 2026 · 02:47

Colombia

A right turn, and a relieved market.

Colombia’s pro-business lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella won Sunday’s presidential runoff over the leftist Iván Cepeda by roughly a point, ending four years of leftist rule under Gustavo Petro. The COLCAP had already closed at a record 2,502.96 on Friday, up about 10% since the first round, and de la Espriella takes office on August 7 with the markets-friendly former finance minister José Manuel Restrepo at his side.

Argentina

A breather before the verdict.

Buenos Aires’ Merval slipped about 1.26% on Friday to near 3,291,322, handing back the prior day’s gain as traders booked profits just below a record. The pullback set up Tuesday’s MSCI decision on whether to restore emerging-market status, a verdict that could pull roughly a billion dollars ($1bn) of passive money into names such as YPF and Banco Macro.

Brazil

A cut, and a defended floor.

Brazil’s Bovespa inched up 0.03% to 168,333.61 in a third quiet session, steadying on the long-defended support near 168,000 after the central bank cut the Selic to 14.25%, its third straight reduction. The real held near 5.16 to the dollar ($1), with a firmer greenback offset by cheaper oil.

Mexico

A third day lower, a clock ticking.

The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.82% on Friday to 67,705.37, its third straight loss as a strong dollar weighed, though the peso went its own way and firmed to around 17.32 per dollar ($1). Attention now turns to the central bank’s June 25 decision and to the formal USMCA review that opens on July 1, with in-person talks set for July 20 in Mexico City.

Chile

Quiet resilience.

Santiago’s IPSA rose 0.47% to 10,888.43, a second straight gain built on firm copper and the prospect of more local rate cuts, even as the dollar sat near a one-year high. The index is still about 7% below the record of 11,721 it set in late January.

Peru

A contested finish, a calm market.

With the count all but complete, the right’s Keiko Fujimori holds a wafer-thin runoff lead over the leftist Roberto Sánchez, who is still contesting the result in the streets. Lima’s market has taken the limbo calmly, and a caretaker government runs the country until the winner is sworn in on July 28.

Bolivia

Order by decree.

President Rodrigo Paz declared a 90-day state of emergency and sent the army to clear road blockades, a hard turn as his government tries to stabilise the economy. His team is closing on an IMF financing programme of about $3.3bn after May’s exchange-rate unification, the external lifeline it needs to ease chronic dollar and fuel shortages.

What did Colombia just decide?

Colombians elected a new president in Sunday’s runoff, choosing the pro-business lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella over the leftist senator Iván Cepeda. The result ends four years of Gustavo Petro’s leftist government and shifts the country to the right, with the winner taking office on August 7.

What is the MSCI decision, and why does it matter for Argentina?

On June 23 the index provider MSCI decides whether to lift Argentina from its lowest “standalone” tier back to emerging-market status. An upgrade would force index-tracking funds to buy Argentine shares, an estimated billion dollars ($1bn) of passive money flowing mainly into names like YPF and Banco Macro.

Why is cheaper oil good for some countries here and bad for others?

It splits the region by trade. Importers such as Brazil and Chile gain as fuel costs and inflation ease, while exporters such as Ecuador and Colombia lose revenue, so the same fall in crude helps and hurts different governments at once.

Why did Wall Street barely move on Friday?

It did not trade at all. US markets were closed for the Juneteenth federal holiday, so the S&P 500’s last print was Thursday’s 7,500.58, and global volumes were thin with China also out for a holiday.

Why is Brazil cutting rates while clashing with Washington?

The two tracks are separate. Brazil’s inflation has eased enough to keep lowering rates, while the friction with the US is political and trade-driven, centred on a threatened 25% tariff and a dispute over labelling Brazilian gangs as terrorists.