Latvians head to the polls amid concerns over rising cost of living and Russia

Polls opened on Saturday in Latvia's parliamentary election shaped by concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living crisis. The Baltic state is a key pillar of NATO's eastern defensive flank, and experts say there is widespread support for supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia.

"The stance towards Russia is the main reason for Latvians' Western, NATO and European anchoring," a Western diplomat in Riga said, adding that it would be hard to imagine major political changes.

Polls predict the centre-right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, will emerge the largest party in parliament in Saturday's vote.

But his centre-right coalition, which also brings together the centrist New Unity, nationalist National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers, is expected to emerge weakened from the election.

Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday.

The current governing coalition is made up of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. Polls suggest the bloc is unlikely to retain power in its current form after the vote.

Security and economy at the top of voters' minds

Security is at the top of voters' minds in a country bordering Russia which was annexed and ruled by Moscow for much of the 20th century.

According to Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, "defence and security will be the priority". Apart from a few dissenting voices, he said, there is broad consensus on maintaining military spending at nearly five percent of GDP and on supporting Ukraine.

But the economy is also a major concern for voters.

Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic States in terms of living standards, despite catching up since joining the EU in 2004.

Growth is sluggish, with voters pointing to the cost of living, the state of the healthcare system and the difficulties of public finances. Complicating this are major regional disparities.

The gap between Latvia's capital and the rest of the country is stark. Around Riga, GDP per capita reached 101 percent of the European average in 2024, according to a European Commission report. In other regions, the figure does not exceed 50 percent.

The contrast is sharpest in Latgale, Latvia's easternmost region, where depopulation is accelerating and economic opportunity is scarce. The region is home to a large majority of Russian speakers, and its decline is reflected most visibly in Daugavpils, the country's second-largest city, where 90 percent of the population is Russian-speaking.

"The most important thing is the lack of young people and the lack of good jobs," said Aigars Soikants, a 30-year-old Daugavpils resident. "There isn't enough work. People are leaving."

Despite living in a city with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, Soikants says identity is not what will drive his vote. He plans to back "a centrist or right-wing party which acts in the interest of the country."

Rise of populist parties in Latvia

Similar to other parts of Europe, populist parties have benefited from economic worries in the lead-up to the election. The Sovereign Power (Suverena vara, SV) party, critical of aid to Ukraine and increasing military spending, is polling at nine percent and could reach second place in Parliament.

Considered pro-Russian by its critics, the party, led by Julija Stepanenko, emphasises Latvia's economic difficulties. The party, however, is isolated politically and, barring a huge upset, has no chance of entering a future governing coalition.

Carefully avoiding the word "Ukraine", Vjaceslavs Stepanenko, the head of SV's local list in Latgale and husband of the party’s chairwoman, advocates "stopping all aid to any foreign state".

"We are the ones who need help, not the other way around."

Another populist party, Latvia First (LPV), is also at nine percent, and its businessman leader Ainars Slesers is regularly compared to US President Donald Trump.

The party is winning support with a conservative message and promises of economic revival, and unlike SV, it could become an indispensable partner in coalition talks.

"The big question is whether the United List will cooperate with Slesers' party," said political analyst Sigita Struberga.

Can Russian-speaking voters influence the polls?

Long rallied behind the "Harmony" party, Russian speakers, who make up about 35 percent of Latvia's population, no longer vote as a unified bloc.

Harmony, which won several parliamentary elections without ever entering government, disappeared from parliament in 2022 and has very little chance of returning.

Russian-speaking voters should not be treated as a single bloc with uniform behaviour, according to analyst Kits.

While identity politics remain a factor, a growing share of this electorate is now driven by economic and social concerns.

That shift is visible in Daugavpils, where Valentin Trofimov, a 62-year-old watch repairman, says he will vote for Slesers' party.

His reasons are straightforward — the country, he says, "lacks money for everything", including transport, education and medicine. "Wages are too low," he said.