By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-16 14:26:38 | Updated at 2026-10-16 15:35:52
1 hour ago
We explore the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for Europe’s women’s leagues: the Frauen-Bundesliga, Liga F, Première Ligue and Serie A.
As the first international break of the second half of the year comes to a close, domestic football across Europe resumes this weekend, and the Opta supercomputer has simulated the season ahead across the continent’s leading women’s leagues.
Having already explored our WSL season predictions, we now turn our attention to the rest of Europe’s top five leagues: Spain’s Liga F, Germany’s Frauen-Bundesliga, Italy’s Serie A and France’s Première Ligue.
Six matches have been played in Spain and Germany, France has completed four rounds of fixtures, and Italy’s campaign is only just getting under way after kicking off at the end of September.
Barcelona are overwhelming favourites to retain their Liga F crown, while OL Lyonnes and Bayern Munich look firmly in control in France and Germany. Italy, meanwhile, appears to offer us the closest title race of the four.
Using 10,000 simulations for each league, we break down the Opta supercomputer’s predictions to assess who is best placed to claim silverware, secure European qualification and avoid relegation.
Frauen Bundesliga: Bayern On Course for Historic Five
The Frauen-Bundesliga may not command the same global attention as the NWSL or WSL, but Opta’s Power Rankings place it as the third-best league in the world. With the German season kicking off on 21 August, we’re already six games into the new campaign.
The Opta supercomputer forecasts a two-horse race between Bayern Munich and VfL Wolfsburg, although whether the contest will prove competitive remains to be seen. Bayern finished 16 points clear last season, the largest winning margin in league history, and are overwhelming favourites to retain their crown.
The Bavarians are projected to win the title in 92.9% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations. They are the only side to have maintained a 100% record after six matches. Bayern are bidding to become the first team in the division’s history to win five consecutive league titles.
Wolfsburg remain their closest challengers, though they only have a 6.4% probability of lifting the trophy. They have collected 15 points from a possible 18 so far, though, after losing to TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 on Matchday 5, their first loss against the side since March 2024.
It means that Stephan Lerch’s side are projected to finish second in 67.5% of simulations and have a 93.3% chance of qualifying for the UEFA Women’s Champions League (UWCL).
Wolfsburg’s attacking quality has been evident, with Ella Peddemors leading the league for attacking-sequence involvements (42) and goals scored (four), while teammate Svenja Huth has created more chances than any other player (29). They also top the league for high turnovers (76) and shots following high turnovers (17), underlining their ability to win possession high up the pitch and turn pressure into clear-cut opportunities.
The battle for Europe sees four clubs competing for the three available UWCL places.
Bayern are guaranteed to qualify according to the model, while Wolfsburg (93.3%), Eintracht Frankfurt (62.8%) and Bayer Leverkusen (35.6%) are the other leading contenders. However, qualification does not guarantee a direct route into the competition: only the Bundesliga champions secure direct entry to the UWCL league phase, with the other places entering through earlier qualifying rounds.
Leverkusen look increasingly dangerous this season, particularly away from home, having won six consecutive matches on the road; their longest such streak in league history.
Erëleta Memeti has been instrumental in their progress, leading the league for goal involvements (seven), expected assists (3.68), big chances created (four) and successful dribbles (16), highlighting her influence as both a creator and a ball-carrier.
The 2025-26 campaign also marked a significant change for the division, which expanded from 12 to 14 teams, mirroring the WSL’s recent expansion. This season has brought two historic arrivals, with VfB Stuttgart and 1. FSV Mainz 05 competing in the top flight for the first time.
Stuttgart have made an encouraging start to life among the elite, sitting eighth with eight points after six matches.
Their games included a narrow 2-1 defeat to Wolfsburg, demonstrating their ability to compete against established Bundesliga sides. Their points tally is the most by a promoted team at this stage since Bayern Munich collected 12 points after six games in 2000-01.
That promising start is reflected in Opta’s projections. Stuttgart have just a 2.9% probability of finishing bottom and a 13% chance of relegation, placing them among the more secure sides in the lower half of the table.
Elsewhere, the relegation battle is heating up between three sides: Hamburger SV have a 31.4% probability of going down, while Nürnberg (63.0%) and Mainz (75.4%) face the greatest danger.
Mainz remain the only team without a point after six matches, and the supercomputer projects them to finish at the foot of the table in 50.2% of its current simulations.
Liga F: Barcelona’s Dominance Continues
Perhaps unsurprisingly, after six wins from six games, Barcelona now win the Liga F title in 98.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations. Even this early in the campaign, the figures underline the Catalan giants’ continued dominance of Spanish football. They finished in the top two in 100% of sims.
The club completed a historic second quadruple last season, including winning the league by a whopping 15 points. While many may have feared a drop-off in standards following the departure of star players including Alexia Putellas, Salma Paralluelo, Ona Batlle and Mapi León, the Blaugrana have answered any doubters in style.
They have scored a league-high 28 goals, while conceding a league-low two. Stars Clàudia Pina and Caroline Graham Hansen have been central to their attacking brilliance.
Pina, in particular, is reaching new heights this campaign. Having traditionally operated as a left winger, she has taken on a slightly deeper, more versatile role, becoming a focal point of Barcelona’s attack. Expected to succeed Putellas as one of the club’s defining figures, she has made a blistering start to the campaign, scoring a league-high nine goals including four against Real Madrid and a hat-trick in under 45 minutes against Alavés.
Pina is averaging 2.35 goals, 0.78 assists and 3.13 goal involvements per 90 minutes this season; all are career highs. Since returning to Barcelona for the 2021-22 campaign, only Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw (88) has scored more goals than Pina’s 77 across Europe’s top five leagues, while only Hansen (128) has registered more goal involvements than her 117.
Hansen has been just as influential this season, becoming the only player in Liga F to have contributed to a goal in every appearance, with 11 goal involvements to her name.
While Barcelona look virtually certain to retain their crown, the battle for second is slightly less settled.
Real Madrid have just a 1.1% chance of winning the title after suffering the heaviest defeat in their history against Barcelona, a humbling 7-0 El Clásico loss. Nevertheless, they remain favourites to finish runners-up, doing so in 87.2% of simulations, despite sitting level on 13 points with Madrid CFF.
Madrid’s attacking promise has been encouraging, with an exciting young trio of Linda Caicedo, Felicia Schröder and Lotte Keukelaar offering reasons for optimism. Schröder, one of the most highly rated young prospects in the game, has scored five league goals so far, with only Pina (nine) managing more.
Atlético Madrid are the next most likely side to finish second, with an 8.5% probability, although third place is their most likely outcome (51.0% of sims). Spain international Fiamma Benítez has been Atlético’s bright spark, having already created 22 chances league wide; only Hansen (27) has created more in the league.
Barcelona look all but certain to secure Champions League qualification, with Real Madrid (98.0%) and Atlético (59.5%) also well placed to claim a top-three finish. Athletic Club (14.1%) and Real Sociedad (9.1%) remain outside contenders.
At the other end of the table, newly promoted Valencia are projected to finish bottom in 56.3% of simulations. Alavés (8.0%) and Deportivo La Coruña (10.8%) are also among the leading candidates for relegation to the Segunda División.
Première Ligue: OL Lyonnes Lead the Race
As in the other leagues, the French top flight has a clear favourite for the title.
OL Lyonnes are crowned champions in 87.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations as they target a sixth consecutive league title. Their dominance over recent seasons has been remarkable, winning 18 of the last 19 titles, with Paris Saint-Germain interrupting their run in 2020-21.
Jonatan Giráldez’s side have made a blistering start to the campaign, winning all four of their opening matches. They have also scored at least five goals in six consecutive league games for the first time in their history, underlining their formidable attacking strength.
Melchie Dumornay (seven) and Ada Hegerberg (six) lead the league’s scoring charts, while Jule Brand has been equally influential in creating opportunities, topping the division for attacking sequence involvements (35), expected assists (1.4), assists (five) and chances created (16). Together, the trio have helped make Lyon a daunting prospect for any opponent.
Indeed, Dumornay (32) and Hegerberg’s (32.7) mins/goal are the best rates across all players in the league to have played 50+ minutes.
PSG are the only other team to have won all four of their opening matches and are given an 11.1% chance of claiming the title, but finishing second is by far their most likely outcome, occurring in 71.0% of simulations. The early predictions point to a two-team battle at the top and the next chapter arrives tomorrow, when Lyon and PSG meet in a clash that will bring one side’s perfect start to an end.
Lyon have won nine consecutive league meetings with their rivals, who last defeated them in December 2022, with a 1-0 victory. The supercomputer favours Giráldez’s side to make it 10 wins in a row against PSG, giving them a 52.9% chance of victory, compared with 24.2% for Paulo César’s side. A PSG result would therefore offer an early indication that the title race could be more competitive than the model currently expects.
The race for UWCL qualification also looks relatively settled. Lyon have a 100% chance of qualifying, with PSG close behind at 99.7% and Paris FC at 93.2%. The next nearest challengers are Fleury, who qualify in just 4.8% of simulations. The top two teams qualify directly for the league phase, while third place enters the final qualifying round.
At the bottom, however, the outlook is far less clear.
With two teams set to be relegated, Lens (52.1%), Toulouse (45.9%) and Saint-Malo (45.3%) all face a significant risk of dropping down, while Strasbourg are also in danger at 21.8%. Lens’ position is perhaps unsurprising after they finished just two points clear of relegation last season.
Newly promoted Toulouse and Saint-Malo are also under pressure, although their early fortunes differ: Saint-Malo have already collected three points and sit ninth, while Toulouse are bottom. With the relegation probabilities so closely grouped, the fight for survival will likely prove far more unpredictable than the contest for the title.
Serie A – Roma Currently Edge the Topsport
The Serie A Women’s title race is harder to call at this early stage, with just two matches played and three teams still boasting 100% records.
Roma lead the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, with a 52.2% chance of retaining the title and winning the league in consecutive seasons for the second time in their history, having previously achieved the feat in 2022–23 and 2023–24.
Roma have made a strong start in front of goal, scoring six times – level with Como 1907 for the league’s highest tally – while also leading the division for big chances created (six). Their attacking threat is headlined by Manuela Giugliano, who has scored twice already this season. Since the start of 2021-22, the Roma midfielder has scored more goals from outside the box (10) than any other player across Europe’s top five women’s leagues.
Inter Milan are Roma’s closest challengers according to the model, with a 31.0% chance of lifting the title. They are also the only team yet to concede, giving them a strong defensive foundation to build on.
Juventus remain in the picture, with a 13.2% title probability, although finishing third is their most likely outcome, at 30.7%.
With Roma, Inter and Juventus accounting for the strongest title probabilities, the early signs point to a three-team race.
Newly promoted Como 1907 are the other side to have won both opening matches after claiming the Serie B Femminile title last season. While their chances of winning Serie A stand at just 0.1%, their perfect start offers encouragement that they can compete at the higher level. The supercomputer gives them only a 2.8% chance of relegation, suggesting they are already firmly on track for survival, most likely their target in their debut campaign.
At the other end of the table, four teams emerge as the leading relegation candidates: Napoli (30.6%), Parma (24.7%), Sassuolo (19.8%) and Ternana (12.8%). Napoli’s position is perhaps the most surprising, having finished seventh last season, while Parma may be less unexpected after ending the previous campaign second from bottom.
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