By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-01-15 17:43:28 | Updated at 2025-01-15 21:07:13
3 hours ago
Liverpool’s 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest was another game in which they started slowly in the first half, only to improve drastically in the second. We take a look at what seems to be a common theme for Arne Slot’s side this season.
From a Liverpool perspective, their exciting 1-1 draw away at fellow Premier League title hopefuls Nottingham Forest on Tuesday was a test of whether your glass is half-empty or half-full.
After a poor first half for the visitors in which Chris Wood fired Forest in front, Arne Slot’s men eventually recovered to secure a point, ending the game impressively and perhaps justified in considering themselves unlucky not to win.
Liverpool had nine shots in the first half at the City Ground but failed to hit the target. They went on to have 14 more efforts in the second half, of which seven tested Matz Sels. The 23 shots at goal from the Premier League leaders was the most Forest have faced in a game this season.
After substitute Diogo Jota equalised in the 66th minute, Liverpool had 12 shots to the hosts’ zero, but couldn’t find a winner as the impressive Sels excelled between the sticks again for Forest.
Jota’s goal came just 22 seconds after he arrived in the game, assisted by the other substitute who had joined it with him, Kostas Tsimikas. It was Liverpool’s fastest goal by a substitute on record (since 2006-07) in a Premier League match.
Liverpool remain six points clear at the top of the table, though Arsenal can reduce that to four on Wednesday when they host Tottenham in the north London derby.
It was a fourth draw in seven league games for Liverpool (W3), having only dropped points in two of their first 13 games (D1 L1) prior to that. It followed back-to-back underwhelming performances against Manchester United in the league and Tottenham in the EFL Cup, and noises about Liverpool hitting their first real dip in form this season will have been getting louder when they trailed Forest at half-time on Tuesday.
As it was, they did drop another two points despite their response, which will have been cause for frustration, but the manner of Liverpool’s second-half performance may also have convinced some that once they get into gear, no other team in England can match the level of Slot’s side at the moment.
The borderline ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ nature of their performance was familiar, though. In their previous league game – a 2-2 home draw with Man Utd – Liverpool had just one shot on target in a goalless first half, before scoring twice from their four shots on target in a much-improved second half, although that also wasn’t enough to beat their old enemy.
Those are just two examples from this season of Liverpool starting slowly before growing into games in the second 45 minutes, something they are doing pretty regularly.
Across their 31 games in all competitions this season, Liverpool have won 24, drawn five and lost just two. It would therefore be a stretch to suggest that they’re only playing well for half the time.
But like a wide-eyed January gym newbie, we’re willing to stretch a little bit.
It probably points to how consistently impressive Liverpool are in the second halves of games rather than how bad they’ve been in the first, but it does seem to be a common occurrence that Arne Slot is being praised for his half-time team talks. His side often come out roaring for the second half after a relatively insipid first 45 minutes.
They have been behind at half-time in five games this season, but didn’t go on to lose any of those (W1 D4). They have been level at the break in 11 games, of which they have gone on to win eight times (D1 L2). They have been ahead in the other 15 games, and have won all 15 of them. Only their defeats against Nottingham Forest in the Premier League and Tottenham in the EFL Cup have seen their result worsen in the second half out of 31 games.
Breaking down the difference into more detailed stats, Liverpool have averaged 0.9 goals scored in the first half from 0.9 xG, with 7.3 shots attempted. Going the other way, they have conceded 0.4 goals from 0.3 xG against, and 4.3 shots faced.
It’s a stark contrast with the second half, when they average 1.5 goals scored from 1.4 xG, with 9.6 shots attempted. Defensively, they have conceded 0.5 goals from 0.5 xG against, and 5.8 shots faced.
It should be mentioned that due to factors such as game state, substitutions, tiring players, length of stoppage time and teams generally chasing results, you often see more shots and goals in the second half of a game compared to the first. Premier League teams this season have averaged 0.7 goals each in the first half of games and 6.2 shots, while that goes up to 0.8 goals and 7.1 shots in the second half. But Liverpool’s leap between the first and second half has been even more pronounced.
One player who epitomises the difference for Liverpool between the two halves is Mohamed Salah, who has scored a mighty 21 goals in all competitions this season, but amazingly, only two of those have come in the first halves of games. That is only half the number scored by Darwin Núñez, whose four strikes this season have all come in the first half.
Salah does have nine assists in the first half to his name, though, at least six more than anyone else. He also has 19 goals in the second half, at least 10 more than any other Premier League player this season, and a further eight assists. Cody Gakpo is next with nine second-half goals, having scored three in the first half.
Luis Díaz is Liverpool’s top scorer when just considering first halves, with seven goals in the opening 45 minutes of games, adding a further five in second halves.
Salah has attempted 38 shots in the first half of games, at just a 5.3% shot conversion rate (including blocks) and an xG of 4.0, despite having 117 touches in the opposition box. Compare that to the second half, when he has attempted 65 shots with a 29.2% shot conversion rate, had 148 touches in the opposition box and amassed 15.1 xG.
This is not to say Liverpool are playing badly in the first half every game. Just look at recent away games at Tottenham and West Ham when they were 3-1 and 3-0 up respectively at the break, and deservedly so. Their 3-0 home win over Bournemouth earlier in the season also saw all three goals scored in a scintillating first 45 minutes at Anfield.
It perhaps just stands out more because they so consistently produce the goods in the second half. You do wonder if Slot could just say to his players before the game whatever it is he’s telling them to do at half-time (yes, we know that’s oversimplifying it, so don’t bother pointing that out!).
They can’t always rely on having enough to kill the game late on, though. Liverpool have failed to score in the first half in their last three games against Premier League opposition, giving themselves work to do in the second and ultimately they were unable to win any of them.
They remain the team to beat in the Premier League, but Slot will surely be keen to see the best of his team earlier in games more often.
If nothing else, Reds fans would probably just appreciate a calmer half-time pint.
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