By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-02 20:56:42 | Updated at 2026-10-02 21:56:51
2 hours ago
MEXICO · MARKETS
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest economy and sends most of its exports to the United States. Its peso floats freely and is one of the most traded emerging-market currencies.
- —The background Every Friday the CFTC, the US futures regulator, reports who holds currency futures traded in Chicago. Speculators have bet on a stronger peso every week since late January 2025.
- —Why now The peso fell about 4% against the dollar in the week to 29 September and on 1 October touched its weakest level since December 2025.
- —What happened On Friday 2 October, the CFTC said speculators held a net long position of 52,402 contracts in peso futures on Tuesday 29 September, down 22,765 from a week earlier.
- —The numbers Each contract covers 500,000 pesos (about US$27,330). The net position is worth about 26.2 billion pesos (about US$1.43 billion).
- —What it means for you A weaker peso gives dollar earners and families receiving remittances more pesos. It raises costs for importers and for anyone in Mexico paying dollar debts.
- —Still open Whether funds keep trimming peso bets as US yields rise. Banco de México, the central bank, next decides on interest rates on 5 November.
Speculators’ net bets on a stronger Mexican peso stood at 52,402 futures contracts on Tuesday 29 September. That was 22,765 contracts fewer than a week earlier, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday 2 October.
The data cover a week in which the peso fell about 4% against the US dollar. Their net position has now fallen for three weeks in a row.
What the report shows
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report counts open positions in US futures markets. They include currency contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
The figures are taken on Tuesday and published on Friday. Traders are sorted into groups, and “non-commercial” traders, mostly hedge funds and other investment funds, are the usual gauge of speculative sentiment.
On Tuesday they held 115,431 contracts that gain if the peso strengthens and 63,029 that gain if it weakens. Over the week they cut 12,164 long contracts and added 10,601 short ones.
Open interest, the total of all open peso contracts held by every type of trader, was 274,821.
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Why the peso is under pressure
A US dollar cost 17.2945 pesos per dollar on 22 September and 18.0465 on 29 September, according to RT live market data. It closed at 18.2965 on Thursday 1 October.
That took the peso to its weakest level since December 2025. Analysts quoted in Mexican media point mainly to the United States: US bond yields at their highest since 2007 and bets on another US rate rise.
The carry trade loses some pull
Funds have long held pesos for the interest. Banco de México kept its benchmark rate at 6.50% on 24 September, less than half Brazil’s 13.75%.
When US yields rise, the extra return from holding pesos shrinks. The bet sours if the peso falls by more than the interest earned.
The net long peaked at 109,301 contracts in early January and fell to 54,657 by 2 June. It rebuilt to 94,732 by 8 September.
The latest figure is 52% below the January peak and the lowest since July 2025.
What it means for foreign readers
For investors, the report shows how many funds are still positioned for a firmer peso. If they sell together, the currency can fall further and faster.
For visitors, retirees and businesses paid in dollars, a weaker peso stretches budgets in Mexico. Nothing in the report says where the currency will be next week.
What comes next
The next report, due on Friday 9 October, will show positions on Tuesday 6 October. The US Federal Reserve meets on 27 and 28 October, and Banco de México on 5 November.
A smaller net long does not mean funds have turned against the peso. They still hold more bets on a stronger currency than on a weaker one.
What is the CFTC Commitments of Traders report?
It is a weekly report by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US futures regulator, showing open positions in US futures markets by type of trader. Data are taken on Tuesday and published on Friday at 3:30 p.m. US Eastern time.
What does a net long position in the peso mean?
Speculators hold more contracts that gain if the peso strengthens against the dollar than contracts that gain if it weakens. Each Chicago peso contract covers 500,000 pesos (about US$27,330).
Why does the Mexican peso matter outside Mexico?
It is one of the most traded emerging-market currencies. Its value shapes remittances to Mexico, holiday budgets and the price of goods made there for the US market.
Sources: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Commitments of Traders, CME futures only, positions as of 29 September 2026 (published 2 October 2026), CFTC Public Reporting Environment, legacy futures-only history, CFTC, 2026 release schedule, Banco de México, monetary policy announcement, 24 September 2026. Exchange rates: RT live market data, closes of 22 and 29 September and 1 October 2026. All retrieved 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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