By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-10-15 19:11:26 | Updated at 2026-10-15 20:44:06
2 hours ago
MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What is happening Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies backed the 2027 revenue law in the general vote on Wednesday, 14 October, by 331 votes to 118, and passed the reserved articles early on Thursday, 15 October, by 340 to 109.
- —Why it matters The law sets what the Mexican government may raise and borrow in 2027, including dollar debt and borrowing limits for Pemex and CFE, and public debt is expected to reach 55% of GDP.
- —The numbers Revenue is set at MXN 10.64 trillion (US$576 billion), of which taxes are MXN 6.26 trillion (US$339 billion); net domestic borrowing is capped at MXN 1.7 trillion (US$92 billion) and net foreign borrowing at US$13.5 billion.
- —Who is who The Chamber of Deputies is the 500-seat lower house, where Morena, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s party, and its allies hold a majority; Ricardo Monreal leads Morena’s deputies, and Edgar Amador Zamora is finance secretary.
- —What to watch The Senate must approve the law by 31 October and can still change it, including the tax-debt relief for firms of any size that deputies added during the final vote.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you US bond investors get the borrowing limits for 2027, up to US$13.5 billion abroad for the government and US$5.26 billion for Pemex, plus a 10% tax rate on gains from new Mexican share offerings.
Mexico’s lower house approved a 2027 revenue law worth about US$576 billion, with net domestic borrowing capped near US$92 billion. The bill now goes to the Senate, which must vote by 31 October.
Mexico’s lower house passed the 2027 revenue law early on Thursday, 15 October, setting income at MXN 10.64 trillion (about US$576 billion). It also caps net domestic borrowing at MXN 1.7 trillion (about US$92 billion) and net foreign borrowing at US$13.5 billion.
The vote on the reserved articles was 340 to 109, after a 331 to 118 general vote on Wednesday. US investors care because the law sets the foreign borrowing limit and debt limits for state firms Pemex and CFE.
What the Revenue Law Sets for 2027
Taxes bring MXN 6.26 trillion (about US$339 billion), or 59% of the total. Income tax is the largest line at MXN 3.29 trillion (about US$178 billion), ahead of value-added tax.
The total also counts MXN 1.48 trillion (about US$80 billion) of financing, the line that includes new borrowing. Article 2 separately caps net domestic borrowing at MXN 1.7 trillion (about US$92 billion).
The plan behind the law assumes 1.5% to 2.5% growth in 2027 and 17.9 pesos per US dollar on average. It also assumes Mexican export crude at US$61.8 a barrel.
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Debt Ceilings for the Treasury, Pemex and CFE
The treasury may add net debt of up to MXN 1.7 trillion (about US$92 billion) at home and US$13.5 billion abroad. Either limit can rise if the other falls by the same amount.
Pemex, the state oil firm, can borrow up to MXN 160.6 billion (about US$8.7 billion) net at home and US$5.26 billion abroad. CFE, the state electricity utility, can borrow up to MXN 16.7 billion (about US$907 million) net at home and US$725 million abroad.
Hacienda, the finance ministry, expects public debt to reach 55% of GDP in 2027, Expansión and La Crónica de Hoy reported. The law belongs to the 2027 economic package that the ministry delivered to Congress on 8 September.
How Deputies Voted on the Revenue Law
In the general vote on Wednesday, 14 October, deputies backed the bill 331 to 118, La Razón and Aristegui Noticias reported. The Chamber’s own vote record, which dates the session 13 October, lists the same count.
Morena, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s party, voted yes with its allies, the Labour Party (PT) and the Green Party (PVEM). The conservative National Action Party (PAN), the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the centrist Citizens’ Movement (MC) mostly voted no.
The final vote on the reserved articles came early on Thursday, 15 October, at 340 to 109, La Jornada reported. The Chamber’s vote record lists the same count, with two MC deputies among the yes votes.
Finance Committee chair Carol Antonio Altamirano said on Tuesday the law adds no new taxes or higher general rates, Excélsior reported. He said revenue should grow through stricter compliance and a crackdown on evasion.
In committee, Federico Döring of the PAN said the government has borrowed more than any before it, La Crónica de Hoy reported. Jericó Abramo Masso of the PRI said the borrowing would fund current spending rather than public works.
Deputies Add Tax-Debt Relief for Firms of Any Size
Only one proposed change passed: Ricardo Monreal’s, who leads Morena’s deputies, the Chamber’s vote record and La Jornada show. It lifts the MXN 300 million (about US$16.3 million) income cap on a scheme waiving fines and surcharges on overdue taxes.
Companies of any size could have fines, surcharges and enforcement costs waived if they pay the inflation-adjusted tax owed, El Financiero reported. Monreal said the main tax is not forgiven and linked the measure to a commitment President Sheinbaum made to business leaders.
Monreal said the capped version collected MXN 6.44 billion (about US$349 million) from about 38,000 taxpayers, El Financiero and MVS Noticias reported. The PAN called it unconstitutional, and Monreal denied it is a pardon.
What It Means for US Readers
The US$13.5 billion foreign borrowing ceiling and Pemex’s US$5.26 billion limit matter most to dollar bondholders. They are ceilings, not issuance plans, and Hacienda decides how much to borrow during the year.
The budget assumes 17.9 pesos per dollar on average in 2027, against 18.46 on the open market on 15 October. A weaker peso raises the peso cost of dollar debt, so the exchange rate bears watching.
The law also sets a 10% rate on 2027 gains from selling shares in Mexican initial public offerings. Foreign investors can qualify in full for firms valued up to MXN 50 billion (about US$2.7 billion), and in part above that.
Mexican units of US groups with firm tax assessments could use the fine waiver if the Senate keeps it. A separate income tax reform for large firms is covered in Mexico Tax Reform on Big Firms Clears House.
What Is Not Known
It is not known when the Senate will vote, though Article 42 of the federal budget law gives it until 31 October. Senators can amend the text, which would send it back to deputies.
No official estimate of what the expanded tax-debt relief will collect or forgo was available on Thursday. Monreal said about 30 million taxpayers could benefit, but MVS Noticias reported he did not explain the figure when asked.
A borrowing ceiling is not a forecast of how much Mexico will borrow. The spending bill, which sets what the government will spend, must still pass the lower house by 15 November.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Mexico’s lower house approve?
It approved the 2027 revenue law, which sets federal income at MXN 10.64 trillion (about US$576 billion). The general vote on 14 October was 331 to 118, and the reserved articles passed 340 to 109 early on 15 October.
How much can Mexico borrow under the law?
Net domestic borrowing is capped at MXN 1.7 trillion (about US$92 billion) and net foreign borrowing at US$13.5 billion. Pemex and CFE have separate limits, set in Article 4.
Is the revenue law final?
No, the Senate must still approve it, and the budget law gives it until 31 October. After approval it must be published in the official gazette within 20 calendar days.
What is the tax-debt relief deputies added?
It waives fines, surcharges and enforcement costs on overdue federal taxes for firms and people who pay the inflation-adjusted tax owed. Deputies removed the MXN 300 million (about US$16.3 million) income cap that limited it.
Does the law raise taxes?
Committee chair Carol Antonio Altamirano said it adds no new taxes and no higher general rates. Taxes are still expected to bring MXN 6.26 trillion (about US$339 billion), or 59% of the total.
Sources: Cámara de Diputados, Gaceta Parlamentaria 7145-IV-2: Dictamen de la Comisión de Hacienda sobre la Ley de Ingresos de la Federación 2027, 13 October 2026; Cámara de Diputados, Gaceta Parlamentaria: vote record of the Ley de Ingresos 2027 (general and reserved articles), session of 13 October 2026; Ley Federal de Presupuesto y Responsabilidad Hacendaria, Article 42; Aristegui Noticias: Diputados aprueban ingresos por 10.6 billones, 14 October 2026; La Jornada: Diputados aprueban en lo particular la Ley de Ingresos, 15 October 2026; La Razón: Diputados aprueban en lo general Ley de Ingresos 2027, 14 October 2026; MVS Noticias: Ley de Ingresos 2027 con megadeuda de 1.7 billones, 15 October 2026; El Financiero: Ley de Ingresos 2027, empresas podrán regularizar adeudos, 15 October 2026; Expansión: Hacienda, deuda de México en 55% del PIB en 2027, 9 September 2026; La Crónica de Hoy: Avanza en Comisión de Hacienda la Ley de Ingresos 2027, 13 October 2026; Excélsior: Avanza Ley de Ingresos 2027, 13 October 2026 (all accessed 15 October 2026). MXN conversions use 18.46 pesos per US dollar (open.er-api.com, 15 October 2026, 00:02 UTC).
