By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-19 11:50:19 | Updated at 2026-06-19 13:28:05
1 hour ago
After drawing their opening game, can the Oranje pick up their first victory against a Swedish side sitting pretty at the top of Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? We look ahead to Saturday’s all-European clash in Houston with our Netherlands vs Sweden prediction and preview.
Netherlands vs Sweden: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes the Netherlands favourites for this game against Sweden, winning 55.9% of its 25,000 pre-match simulations.
- The Dutch have avoided defeat (in normal time) in their last 13 World Cup games, since losing 1–0 to Spain in the 2010 final – that’s the joint-longest unbeaten run by any team in the tournament’s history, along with Brazil between 1958 and 1966.
- Sweden’s five goals against Tunisia in their opener has already equalled their tally from the entire group stage at the 2018 World Cup, and they’ve only netted more group-stage goals in one of their previous six editions of the tournament (six in 1994).
The third of just four all-European meetings in the 2026 World Cup group stage sees the Netherlands take on Sweden at Houston Stadium, with both teams keen to build some momentum from the opening round of matches.
As two of just five nations to have contested a World Cup final without winning (Netherlands in 1974, 1978 and 2010; Sweden in 1958), both Ronald Koeman and Graham Potter’s squads will be looking to advance as far as possible at the 2026 edition.
The Oranje appeared to have wrapped up three points against Japan in their opener at Dallas Stadium, only for Daichi Kamada to score an 88th-minute equaliser which consigned Koeman’s side to a 2–2 draw.
Goals from Virgil van Dijk and Crysencio Summerville – either side of Keito Nakamura’s first equaliser – had the Dutch on course for victory, but Kamada’s deflected header from a late corner meant the spoils were shared.
As a result, the Netherlands have now drawn 2–2 in their last two World Cup matches (also vs Argentina in the 2022 quarter-finals), having only gone three games without a win once before at the tournament – a run of five between 1978 and 1990.
As well as Summerville scoring on his competitive debut for the Dutch, Van Dijk netted his first ever goal in a major tournament, becoming the Netherlands’ second-oldest World Cup scorer (34 years, 341 days) after Giovanni van Bronckhorst against Uruguay in 2010.
Ryan Gravenberch set up both Dutch goals on his World Cup debut, managing as many goal contributions as he’d produced across his previous 27 Netherlands appearances (one goal, one assist).
That draw in Dallas was the first time the Netherlands have twice taken the lead in a World Cup match and not gone on to win, potentially providing Sweden with further confidence as they look to make it two wins from two in Group F.
Following that 5-1 victory over Tunisia on Matchday 1, Sweden could win their first two group-stage matches at a World Cup for just the second time – only previously doing so at the 1958 edition, which they both hosted and reached the final of.
Potter’s side were almost faultless at Estadio Monterrey, with Brighton’s Yasin Ayari opening the scoring inside seven minutes and rounding it off with their fifth goal in second-half stoppage time.
Sweden’s three other strikes saw Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres fire home either side of half-time, with substitute Mattias Svanberg adding a late fourth before Ayari finished things off.
Having set up both Gyökeres and Svanberg in the second half, Isak’s three goal contributions are already the most managed by any Sweden player at a single edition of the World Cup since Henrik Larsson (also three) in 2002.
Svanberg’s strike hit the net just 18 seconds after his introduction off the bench – the second-fastest goal by a substitute in any World Cup match since 1966, and beaten only by Richard Morales for Uruguay against Senegal in 2002 (16 seconds).
Sweden’s haul against Tunisia is their second-best goalscoring display in a single World Cup match, after an 8-0 win over Cuba in the 1938 quarter-finals.
However, Sweden have only won one of their seven previous group-stage matches against European nations at the World Cup – that victory did come on US soil though, beating Russia 3-1 in the 1994 tournament.
Netherlands vs Sweden Head-to-Head
As two European nations in quite close proximity, the Netherlands and Sweden have met on 20 occasions; most recently in October 2017, when an Arjen Robben brace sealed a 2–0 win for the Dutch in a 2018 World Cup qualifier.
With seven victories to the Oranje’s nine, Sweden have only succeeded in one of their last seven matches against the Netherlands, winning 3–2 in October 2011 to book their place at Euro 2012.
This will be the second World Cup fixture between the Netherlands and Sweden – their first in the 1974 group stage ended goalless, but is more famous for the arrival of the ‘Cruyff turn’, as the Dutch ‘total football’ style began to take hold.
Netherlands vs Sweden Prediction
Although Sweden swept Tunisia aside with a breathtaking attacking display on MD1, it’s the Netherlands who are favourites to win this Group F clash, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Over 25,000 pre-match simulations, the Oranje came out on top in 55.9% of the outcomes, suggesting that Koeman’s charges look likely to bounce back and claim their first win at the 2026 World Cup.
A Swedish victory stands at just 20.8% probability, but a single point – with a 23.3% likelihood of a draw – should still be enough for Potter’s side to seal their place in the last 32.
Netherlands vs Sweden Squads
Netherlands: Bart Verbruggen, Robin Roefs, Mark Flekken, Lutsharel Geertruida, Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Aké, Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven, Denzel Dumfries, Jorrel Hato, Quinten Timber, Marten de Roon, Ryan Gravenberch, Mats Wieffer, Tijjani Reijnders, Guus Til, Teun Koopmeiners, Frenkie de Jong, Justin Kluivert, Wout Weghorst, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Noa Lang, Donyell Malen, Brian Brobbey, Crysencio Summerville.
Sweden: Jacob Widell Zetterström, Viktor Johansson, Kristoffer Nordfeldt, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Victor Lindelöf, Isak Hien, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Daniel Svensson, Hjalmar Ekdal, Carl Starfelt, Eric Smith, Herman Johansson, Lucas Bergvall, Ken Sema, Jesper Karlström, Yasin Ayari, Mattias Svanberg, Besfort Zeneli, Elliot Stroud, Taha Ali, Alexander Isak, Benjamin Nygren, Anthony Elanga, Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Bernhardsson, Gustaf Nilsson.
Netherlands vs Sweden Predicted Lineups
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