By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-19 12:32:03 | Updated at 2026-06-19 14:23:32
2 hours ago
Can Hervé Renard spark a Tunisian revival in the tournament’s 1,000th match? Look ahead to this Group F match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup with our Tunisia vs Japan prediction and preview.
Tunisia vs Japan: The Key Insights
- Japan are regarded as clear favourites to win this match, coming out on top in 61.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations.
- Tunisia’s 5-1 defeat to Sweden on MD1 was their heaviest defeat in their FIFA World Cup history.
- Despite conceding in each of their seven FIFA World Cup group games since 2018, Japan have only lost two of those matches (W3 D2), while they’ve only lost one of their previous four matches at the tournament in which they’ve conceded first (W2 D1).
Tunisia vs Japan at Estadio Monterrey will be the 1,000th match in FIFA World Cup history, played 96 years after the tournament’s first-ever matches, when Montevideo hosted France 4-1 Mexico and USA 3-0 Belgium.
It’s fair to say that Tunisia have had a rather bumpy start to this World Cup. A chastening 5-1 defeat to Sweden in their opening group game on Sunday evening in Mexico was not received well by the nation’s footballing hierarchy, and by Tuesday, head coach Sabri Lamouchi had been replaced by Hervé Renard.
Lamouchi’s departure meant he became the first manager in World Cup history to be sacked after just one game. The Frenchman had only taken charge of four Tunisia games heading into the tournament, and two of those were scoreless defeats against Austria and Belgium earlier this month.
With this match against Japan to be followed by the final group game against the Netherlands, the Tunisian Football Association clearly felt there was no time to waste.
They do have a history with early dismissals. Tunisia sacked Henryk Kasperczak after they failed to win their first two games at the 1998 World Cup, but still finished bottom of their group, after drawing their third match.
Renard comes in with vast experience to his name. This will be his ninth role in international management, including multiple stints with Zambia and Saudi Arabia, as well as a spell in charge of France’s women’s team.
He was set to coach at this summer’s World Cup with Saudi Arabia after successfully guiding them through qualifying, but was replaced by Georgos Donis in April. He has a serious job on his hands if he is expected to extract any success from this Tunisia team, though.
Their 5-1 defeat to Sweden on Matchday 1 was their heaviest ever loss at the World Cup; they’ve only conceded more goals overall at a single edition of the tournament in 2018 (8) and 2006 (6).
Lamouchi may feel a touch aggrieved by the performance of goalkeeper Abdelmouhib Chamakh, who made two errors leading directly to goals and had an expected goals prevented figure of -2.88.
Tunisia became the second side on record (since 1966) to concede three goals from outside the box in a World Cup match after Chile against Germany in 1982.
This is all good news for Japan, of course, who will feel well-placed to capitalise on Tunisia’s misery after twice coming from behind to earn a point against the Netherlands on MD1.
Hajime Moriyasu’s team have proven themselves to be a seriously tough side to beat. Despite conceding in each of their seven World Cup group games since 2018, Japan have only lost two of those matches (W3 D2), while they’ve only lost one of their previous four matches at the tournament in which they’ve conceded first (W2 D1).
Moriyasu’s great use of substitutes is no doubt key to this record. Five of Japan’s seven goals since the start of the 2022 World Cup have been either scored (3) or assisted (2) by a substitute. Indeed, their 89th-minute equaliser against the Netherlands last time out was assisted by substitute Koki Ogawa, albeit he was clearly trying to score. The ball deflected in off the head of Daichi Kamada.
Be on the lookout for Shogo Taniguchi’s superb use of the ball in the centre of Japan’s back three. Among Japanese players with 50+ passes attempted in a World Cup match, Taniguchi against the Netherlands recorded the highest success rate (98% – 49/50), while in that game, only Virgil van Dijk (14) and Jan Paul van Hecke (11) recorded more line-breaking passes than his eight.
The 34-year-old Sint. Truiden defender is something of a late bloomer, with the vast majority of his international caps coming after he entered his thirties.
Tunisia vs Japan Head-to-Head
Tunisia and Japan are meeting at the World Cup for the second time. Their first encounter came in the 2002 group stage, where Japan won 2-0 on home soil, a match that notably included Hidetoshi Nakata’s only World Cup goal.
Tunisia have won only one of their six overall matches against Japan – a 3-0 victory on Japanese soil in a June 2022 Kirin Cup friendly. The other five matches have all been won by Japan.
After winning their first two World Cup matches against African opposition, Japan are since winless across their last two, losing to Ivory Coast 2-1 in 2014 before drawing 2-2 with Senegal in 2018.
Tunisia vs Japan Prediction
Tunisia’s decision to replace Lamouchi with Renard after just one game offers an interesting dynamic to this match, but the Opta supercomputer is still confident Japan will come out on top, winning the World Cup’s 1,000th match in 61.3% of its 25,000 simulations.
The next most likely result is a draw, at 22.9%. Meanwhile, Tunisia have a 15.8% of earning a surprising win.
Tunisia vs Japan Squads
Tunisia: Abdelmouhib Chamakh, Aymen Dahmen, Sabri Ben Hassen, Ali Abdi, Montassar Talbi, Omar Rekik, Adem Arous, Dylan Bronn, Yan Valery, Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida, Moutaz Neffati, Raed Chikhaoui, Elias Achouri, Hannibal Mejbri, Mortadha Ben Ouanes, Rani Khedira, Hadj Mahmoud, Ellyes Skhiri, Anis Ben Slimane, Elias Saad, Hazem Mastouri, Ismaël Gharbi, Khalil Ayari, Rayan Elloumi, Firas Chaouat, Sebastian Tounekti.
Japan: Zion Suzuki, Keisuke Osako, Tomoki Hayakawa, Yukinari Sugawara, Shogo Taniguchi, Ko Itakura, Yuto Nagatomo, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Ayumu Seko, Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Junnosuke Suzuki, Wataru Endo, Ao Tanaka, Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada, Yuito Suzuki, Kaishu Sano, Takefusa Kubo, Keisuke Goto, Daizen Maeda, Keito Nakamura, Junya Ito, Ayase Ueda, Koki Ogawa, Kento Shiogai.
Tunisia vs Japan Predicted Lineups
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