Nigel Farage’s Reform storms ahead in mega poll as Labour falls to second in blow to Burnham bounce

Survation placed Labour in a distant second, with Andy Burnham's Labour ending up with fewer seats than Jeremy Corbyn's calamitous 2019 performance.

Despite talk of a Tory revival, Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives slip into a disastrous fourth place, ending up one seat behind the Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party would win 46 seats and Plaid Cymru would secure a record-breaking nine seats in Wales.

Survation's survey, which was conducted on behalf of Hope Not Hate, found tactical voting could prove decisive at the next general election.

"A shallow polling lead of 0.4 per cent is exactly where tactical voting would become decisive for many seats, and there’s good reason to think the next election will see plenty of it," Survation said.

"With voters across the spectrum currently dissatisfied with their traditional parties and with political preferences more fragmented than ever, the incentive to vote for whoever is best placed to block an unwanted winner only grows.

Survation found Reform UK would win more than 200 seats

SURVATION

"The target on this occasion could be Reform UK, the party seen as the biggest threat across the board, or Labour which has alienated a significant proportion of its 2024 electorate.

"Under first-past-the-post, an anti-Reform tactical vote would mean a voter abandoning their preferred party when it is likely to finish third or lower to back the strongest challenger to Reform in their constituency."

The polling firm also revealed the seats most in play for three or more parties, with Reform UK, Labour and the Conservatives all within the margin of error in Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard.

Similar splits were registered in Bexleyheath & Crayford, Maidstone & Malling, Northampton South, Torridge & Tavistock, Hinckley & Bosworth, Derbyshire Dales, Newark, Lichfield and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.

However, Reform UK's biggest surge since the 2024 General Election appears to have taken place in the Red Wall.

Nigel Farage would now win 101 out of 160 seats in post-industrial corners of the north of England and Midlands.

Despite Reform's Red Wall surge, Mr Burnham is helping Labour claw back support in key seats since replacing Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

Survation found Labour has recovered 11 per cent in the Red Wall since the spring.

However, Survation's poll suggests a hung parliament remains the most likely scenario at the next general election.

The right-of-centre parties only secure 298 seats in the House of Commons, with Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain unable to make a breakthrough in any of the 650 constituencies.

Meanwhile, a left-of-centre coalition – made up of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party – narrowly secures enough seats to lead a rainbow alliance.

Mrs Badenoch has ruled out entering a coalition with Reform UK, describing the prospect of working with Mr Farage as "monstrous".

Mrs Badenoch is instead targeting a group of voters who have previously voted Tory but also supported the 2016 Remain campaign.

The revelations, first documented by Guido Fawkes, came hours before Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey opened the door to a coalition with the Tories.

Sir Ed, who served as Environment Secretary in David Cameron's coalition Government, said: “I maybe agree with Kemi that it looks like there’s going to be a hung parliament.

“If there is, I would say I’m the party leader with most experience of how you manage that sort of situation for our country. And I want my party to be in Government.”