By The Rio Times | Created at 2026-09-02 06:51:29 | Updated at 2026-09-03 04:53:52
22 hours ago
NIGERIA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
—The headline: Gross domestic product grew 4.43% year on year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That compares with 4.23% in the same quarter of 2025 and 3.89% in the first quarter of this year.
—The best in seven quarters: It is the strongest quarterly expansion since the third quarter of 2024, when the economy grew 3.86%.
—Where the growth came from: Services and agriculture did the work. Services grew 4.60% and remain the largest sector at 56.62% of real GDP. Agriculture expanded 4.39% in real terms, well up from 2.82% a year earlier.
—What lagged: Industry grew 3.96%, barely half the 7.46% it posted in the same quarter of 2025. The non-oil sector accounted for 95.84% of real GDP.
—The oil line: Average daily oil production rose to 1.72 million barrels a day from 1.55 million in the first quarter, and the oil sector grew faster than the rest of the economy in the quarter.
—The nominal figure: At current basic prices, aggregate GDP reached N119.29 trillion (about US$89.7 billion) in the quarter, against N100.73 trillion (about US$75.7 billion) a year earlier. That is nominal growth of 18.43%, most of which is inflation.
—The measurement basis: The figures use rebased GDP estimates calculated at constant 2019 prices. Comparisons with older series should be made carefully.
—The currency backdrop: The naira traded at about 1,330 to the US dollar on the official window on September 1, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, and near 1,400 to the dollar on the parallel market.
Nigeria GDP growth reached 4.43% year on year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. That is up from 4.23% a year earlier and the strongest quarterly reading since the third quarter of 2024. All dollar conversions in this story use the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official rate of about 1,330 naira to the US dollar on September 1, 2026.
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What the Nigeria GDP growth figure contains
The number comes from the bureau’s quarterly report, released on Monday, and is calculated on rebased estimates at constant 2019 prices. It is a year-on-year real reading rather than a quarterly one.
The bureau attributes the improvement largely to stronger growth in agriculture and services. Services expanded 4.60% against 3.94% a year earlier, and agriculture grew 4.39% against 2.82%, a considerable acceleration for a sector held back by insecurity in producing regions.
Industry, which covers oil and gas, manufacturing, construction and utilities, grew 3.96%, a sharp slowdown from 7.46% in the same quarter of 2025.
Oil and non-oil, side by side
The non-oil economy grew 4.31% in real terms, up from 3.64% a year earlier, and accounted for 95.84% of real GDP. Agriculture, information and communication, real estate, trade, financial services, manufacturing and construction all contributed.
The oil sector, small in measured output but central to government revenue and foreign exchange, grew 7.31% in real terms as average daily production rose to 1.72 million barrels from 1.55 million in the first quarter.
That combination, a dominant services sector and a recovering oil line, is what lifted the headline above 4% for a second consecutive reading, after 3.89% in the first quarter.
The nominal picture, and why it differs
At current basic prices, aggregate GDP came to N119.29 trillion (about US$89.7 billion) for the quarter, against N100.73 trillion (about US$75.7 billion) in the second quarter of 2025. That is nominal growth of 18.43%. Real GDP was estimated at N53.47 trillion (about US$40.2 billion).
The gap between 18.43% nominal and 4.43% real is inflation. Nigerian consumer price growth has remained elevated through the year.
For investors converting to dollars, the exchange rate does further work. The naira traded at about 1,330 to the US dollar on the official window on September 1, with the parallel market near 1,400 to the dollar.
Why the services number is the one to watch
Services have been the largest contributor to Nigerian growth for several years, and they are where the country’s rebased economy carries most of its weight: 56.62% of real GDP. Telecommunications, finance and trade dominate the category.
That matters for the durability of the reading. Services growth responds quickly to credit conditions and consumer demand, both of which are sensitive to the interest-rate path.
Agriculture is the more encouraging surprise. A jump from 2.82% to 4.39% suggests a better harvest cycle, though a single quarter is not a trend.
What the rebasing means for comparisons
The figures are calculated on rebased estimates at constant 2019 prices, which the statistics bureau adopted to reflect a changed economy. Rebasing updates the weights given to each sector.
The practical consequence is that growth rates from before the rebasing are not directly comparable with these. A reader comparing 4.43% with a figure from three years ago is comparing two different measurements.
Rebasing also changes the denominator for every ratio built on GDP. Debt to GDP, revenue to GDP and the deficit all look different against a larger measured economy, which is worth remembering when Nigerian fiscal ratios are compared with those of its peers.
How to read this alongside the market
The Nigerian equity market has had a strong year, and the domestic investor base has carried it. That combination of firm growth and a thin foreign bid is the central feature of the current cycle.
The deal market tells a different story. Nigerian merger and acquisition value fell sharply in the first half even as transaction numbers rose, which suggests confidence in the economy is not yet translating into large cheques.
None of this is investment advice, and official statistics of this kind are frequently revised. The next quarterly report is the check on whether the second quarter was a turning point or a good season.
This report is based on the National Bureau of Statistics GDP report for the second quarter of 2026, released on August 31, as reported by Premium Times, Leadership, TheCable and Reuters, with exchange-rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Frequently asked questions
How fast did Nigeria’s economy grow in the second quarter of 2026?
Real GDP grew 4.43% year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That compares with 4.23% in the second quarter of 2025 and 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026.
Is that a strong reading by recent standards?
It is the strongest quarterly expansion since the third quarter of 2024, when growth was 3.86%.
Which sectors drove the growth?
Services and agriculture. Services grew 4.60% and account for 56.62% of real GDP; agriculture expanded 4.39%, up from 2.82% a year earlier. Industry slowed to 3.96% from 7.46%.
What was nominal GDP?
At current basic prices, aggregate GDP reached N119.29 trillion (about US$89.7 billion), against N100.73 trillion (about US$75.7 billion) a year earlier, or nominal growth of 18.43%.
What basis are the figures calculated on?
Rebased GDP estimates at constant 2019 prices. Comparisons with older series should be made with that in mind.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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