Omar Marmoush to Man City: Has Pep Guardiola Found His Julián Alvarez Replacement?

Omar Marmoush is reportedly close to joining Manchester City. We take a look at why the Premier League champions are turning to the Eintracht Frankfurt forward.

This is an updated version of our article from November 2024: Omar Marmoush: The New Egyptian Sensation Keeping Pace With Mohamed Salah

Given the exceptional form of Mohamed Salah this season, it’s understandable for anyone to think the successful formula to finding a Premier League superstar forward is to look to Egypt.

Salah’s international teammate, Omar Marmoush, could very well be joining him in England’s top flight soon as Manchester City are reportedly looking to do a deal with Eintracht Frankfurt in the January transfer window.

Obviously, it’s Marmoush’s numbers rather than his nationality that has caught City’s eye. The 25-year-old been outstanding for Eintracht in 2024-25, recording 13 goals and seven assists in 15 Bundesliga games, and 18 goals and 11 assists in 24 games in all competitions.

When he assisted Hugo Ekitiké in Eintracht’s 3-2 win at Stuttgart on 10 November, Marmoush became just the second player from Europe’s top five leagues to reach double figures for both goals and assists in all competitions this season. It came less than 24 hours after compatriot Salah became the first to do so. Two months later, and Marmoush is still only one of two players to have reached both landmarks.

While to some outside of Germany it may seem like Marmoush has come from nowhere to become one of the most potent attackers in Europe, that wouldn’t be entirely fair. He recorded a respectable 12 goals and six assists in 29 Bundesliga games last season, and added another five goals in 12 games in all other competitions.

However, as happened with last season’s breakout star in Germany’s top flight, Serhou Guirassy, then of Stuttgart, Marmoush has stepped it up a level (or several) this year, which very few will have anticipated.

We highlighted him as a player to watch ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations last year, where he was one of just four Egypt players to score before they were eliminated by DR Congo in the last 16. Marmoush started just two of the Pharaohs’ four games in the tournament, scoring in their 2-2 group-stage draw with Ghana.

Marmoush arrived in Frankfurt on a free transfer in 2023 from Wolfsburg, where he didn’t exactly have a record that suggested a star was about to be born. He scored six goals in 48 games (18 starts) for Wolfsburg in four seasons, though he did also have loan spells with St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga, scoring seven times in 21 games (19 starts) in 2020-21, and at Stuttgart in the top flight, netting three goals in 21 appearances (19 starts) in 2021-22.

However, Marmoush has thrived in Frankfurt. He joined just after the departure of Oliver Glasner – now at Crystal Palace – but worked well with Glasner’s replacement, Dino Toppmöller, especially this season.

In all competitions, only Salah (38) has more than Marmoush’s 29 goal involvements from players in Europe’s top five leagues, while the Eintracht star is also only behind his national team captain when considering just league games. His 20 goal involvements is ahead of Harry Kane, Cole Palmer (both 19), Robert Lewandowski (18), Alexander Isak, Raphinha and Erling Haaland (all 17).

His finishing has been among the most impressive in Europe, with his 13 Bundesliga goals coming from just 7.6 expected goals (xG). His overperformance of 5.4 is only behind Premier League pair Bryan Mbeumo (6.8) and Matheus Cunha (5.9) of players in Europe’s big five leagues.

One reason for Marmoush’s impressive overperformance compared to his xG is his set-piece prowess. Earlier this season, he scored directly from a free-kick three games in a row, becoming the first player from Europe’s top five leagues since Lionel Messi for Barcelona in 2019 to score from a direct free-kick in three consecutive competitive matches.

No other player from Europe’s top five leagues has scored as many as his three direct free-kicks this season in all competitions, and indeed, only three other players have scored two.

Marmoush often wins his own free-kicks, too. A very tricky player to mark or dispossess, he’s won 50 free-kicks this season, more than any other forward across Europe’s top five leagues.

He is dangerous whenever he gets on the ball, willing to carry the ball and create chances for others. Last season, Bayern Munich’s Leroy Sané (511) and Hoffenheim’s Andrej Kramaric (348) were the only forwards to total more carries (moving at least 5 metres with the ball) in the Bundesliga than Marmoush (323). Only the same two players recorded more than his 17 chance-creating carries, while just Sané and Freiburg’s Eren Dinkçi carried the ball further in total than him. RB Leipzig’s Loïs Openda and Hoffenheim’s Maximilian Beier were the only two to have more shots following a carry.

If that wasn’t impressive enough, as with his scoring, Marmoush has stepped it up this season. No forward has made as many as his 209 carries in the Bundesliga, and none have even had half as many as his 27 shot-ending carries (14 ahead of the next most, Openda).

He’s also capable of creating for others, with only six players in the Bundesliga having laid on more than his 31 chances for teammates this season.

A lot of those opportunities have been for strike partner Ekitiké. In fact, five of Ekitiké’s 11 goals this season have come courtesy of a Marmoush assist, which could be music to the ears of his potential new strike partner, Haaland.

Marmoush primarily plays as a striker, but has on occasion been used off the left or as a second striker/attacking midfielder. It will be interesting to see how Pep Guardiola uses him, having not really replaced Julián Alvarez after his move to Atlético Madrid in the summer.

Comparing Marmoush’s output to Alvarez’s at City last season, the Egyptian is averaging more shots per 90 minutes than the Argentine (4.5 to 3.3) and significantly more dribbles attempted per 90 (5.3 to 1.5). He’s almost matching Alvarez’s numbers for chances created per 90 (2.2 to 2.3) and is nearly winning possession as often (3.0 to 3.3). Each metric could alter with him playing in a different system with different demands, though.

That will be one of the most interesting things to see if the move to Manchester happens; how Marmoush adapts to a new way of playing. City’s slow and intricate style isn’t particularly similar to Eintracht’s. The German side aren’t as focused on having the ball, having averaged 48.3% possession in Bundesliga games this season, with only eight teams having less. City average 61.4% in the Premier League, with only four teams in Europe’s top five leagues averaging more.

Either way, Marmoush finds a way to be influential, whoever the opponent. He grabbed a goal and two assists in Eintracht’s 5-1 hammering of Bayern last season, and also scored twice against the Rekordmeister in their 3-3 draw earlier this campaign. In fact, the only Bundesliga team he has scored as many goals against as Bayern since the start of last season is his former club Wolfsburg.

Marmoush also throws up some interesting results in Opta’s Player Similarity tool, which looks at the output of almost 2,300 players from Europe’s top five leagues over the past 10 years. While it doesn’t measure all metrics, those it does include suggest his performances in 2024-25 match most similarly to two of Salah’s best seasons at Liverpool, as well as Messi’s 2014-15 campaign. Not bad company, we’re sure you’ll agree.

With their struggles this season, City will be hoping Marmoush can give them a boost and help get the club back on track. There remain things to achieve in the Premier League while Guardiola’s side are still one of the favourites to win the Champions League.

Man City have attempted more shots than any other team in the Premier League this season (342), but only have the sixth-most goals (36), having scored fewer than Brentford (38) despite the Bees having 128 fewer shots (214).

City’s shot conversion rate in the Premier League is just 10.5% this season, their lowest since the 2012-13 campaign (10.0%), and is down from 13.9% last season. If Marmoush can help increase that percentage then City will certainly think the move will be worth it.

Liverpool might have the Egyptian King, but Man City fans can perhaps look forward to cheering on their own Egyptian Prince.

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