By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-22 11:14:29 | Updated at 2026-06-24 07:08:07
1 day ago
Both teams need to bounce back from opening defeats at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We look ahead to Wednesday’s Group L clash with our Panama vs Croatia prediction and preview.
Panama vs Croatia: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer expects Croatia to win; they overcame Panama in a convincing 62.0% of pre-match simulations.
- Panama have lost each of their four World Cup matches, scoring just two goals.
- Croatia could lose back-to-back World Cup matches for just the second time.
Croatia and Panama will both hope for a response in Toronto on Wednesday after the pair fell to disappointing defeats in their World Cup openers.
Zlatko Dalic’s side suffered a 4-2 defeat to England in their Group L encounter last Wednesday. Having fallen behind twice, Martin Baturina and Petar Musa both levelled before half-time, but Thomas Tuchel’s team dominated after the interval in Dallas.
Dalic may not be too concerned by a poor start, considering Croatia have lost their opening game in four of their last six World Cup tournaments (W1 D1). They have still reached at least the semi-finals in the last two editions.
Croatia’s task now will be to respond and avoid losing consecutive World Cup matches for just the second time, after defeats to Ecuador in 2002 and Brazil four years later.
There were some positive signs against England from Dalic’s men, whose work ethic could not be faulted throughout. Croatia applied 187 high pressures in the opposition’s half – the most of any side across the first matchday of the tournament.
Croatia have plenty of experience to call upon, too. Starting the opener, Luka Modric became just the second European player to make an appearance at 10 different major tournaments, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (12).
However, Modric was removed before the hour, playing the fewest minutes (58) of any of his 34 starts across either the World Cup or the European Championship. He will hope to make more of an impression on what will be his 200th appearance for Croatia, while Dalic may opt to bring in Mateo Kovacic for support in midfield.
Panama also opened with defeat, losing 1-0 to Ghana after Caleb Yirenkyi’s last-gasp strike. which hit the back of the net with 94:04 on the clock.
Thomas Christiansen’s side are yet to register a point in any of their four World Cup games (L4), while they have conceded 12 goals, failed to keep a clean sheet and scored just twice.
Ahead of MD2, only El Salvador possess a worse 100% losing record in the competition’s history (six games), but Christiansen may be buoyed by their opening showing.
Panama recorded 62% possession and 502 completed passes against Ghana, having never previously registered more than 40% possession or 350 successful passes in a match at the tournament.
Central to those improvements on the ball was José Córdoba, who attempted 101 passes – the most of any player in a game for Panama in tournament history. His MD1 tally was just 15 passes shy of the total any Panama player recorded in their 2018 World Cup campaign across all three group-stage fixtures combined (Gabriel Gómez with 116).
Andrés Andrade also impressed, playing the fourth-most line-breaking passes of any player in the opening round of games at the tournament (21). He also recorded the joint-most line-breaking passes starting from his own half (15), alongside United States defender Tim Ream.
But Panama put in the hard yards as well. No side recorded more tackles than their 29 on MD1, while only France (37 against Tunisia) made more across the entire 2022 tournament.
Further forward, Christiansen may bring in Ismael Díaz to start. He won the Golden Boot at last year’s Gold Cup, scoring twice as many goals as any other player, and could be Panama’s solution to a lack of goals on the world stage.
Panama vs Croatia Head-to-Head
This pair have never met before, but Croatia have lost seven of their last 10 World Cup matches against teams from the Americas (W2 D1).
Dalic’s side have only kept one clean sheet in that time, managing to do so in a 3-0 win against Argentina at the 2018 tournament.
At that same edition, Mexico secured a 1-0 victory over Germany in the group stages, but CONCACAF nations have otherwise struggled against European sides.
As of the end of the first round of games at the 2026 World Cup, they had won just one of their last 24 competition matches against European opposition (D8 L15).
Panama vs Croatia Prediction
The Opta supercomputer ran 25,000 pre-match simulations, with Croatia getting back on track and winning 62.0% of those.
Panama are afforded just a 15.7% chance of a first World Cup victory, while the draw accounted for 22.4% of the data-led simulations.
Panama vs Croatia Squads
Panama: Luis Mejía, César Samudio, Orlando Mosquera, César Blackman, José Córdoba, Fidel Escobar, Edgardo Fariña, Jiovany Ramos, Éric Davis, Andrés Andrade, Amir Murillo, Roderick Miller, Jorge Gutiérrez, Cristian Martínez, José Luis Rodríguez, Adalberto Carrasquilla, Yoel Bárcenas, Carlos Harvey, Aníbal Godoy, Tomás Rodríguez, Ismael Díaz, José Fajardo, Cecilio Waterman, Alberto Quintero, César Yanis, Azarías Londoño.
Croatia: Dominik Livakovic, Ivor Pandur, Dominik Kotarski, Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic, Josko Gvardiol, Duje Caleta-Car, Josip Sutalo, Luka Vuskovic, Martin Erlic, Nikola Moro, Mateo Kovacic, Luka Modric, Nikola Vlasic, Mario Pasalic, Martin Baturina, Petar Sucic, Kristijan Jakic, Toni Fruk, Luka Sucic, Andrej Kramaric, Ante Budimir, Ivan Perisic, Igor Matanovic, Marco Pasalic, Petar Musa.
Panama vs Croatia Predicted Lineups
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