Penalty Prevalence, Bruno Fernandes, and Unproductive Shooting

By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-01-07 17:06:35 | Updated at 2025-01-08 15:39:25 22 hours ago

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at penalties, Bruno Fernandes, and wayward finishing.

New Year, same unpredictable Premier League.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all dropped points over the weekend, though high-flying Nottingham Forest made it six wins in a row on Monday at Wolves, the longest winning run of any team in the competition this season.

The first full matchday in the Premier League of 2025 saw six penalties awarded. Was it a sign of the times, or might a New Year’s resolution for referees have been to point to the spot more often? In this week’s SVQ we look at some interesting penalty data.

The game of the weekend came at Anfield as old rivals Liverpool and Manchester United played out a 2-2 draw, with Bruno Fernandes in particularly good form for the visitors. We delve into the United talisman’s numbers.

We hope you had a nice end to 2024 and that 2025 is treating you well. Let’s get into the first SVQ of the year.

If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.

STAT – Plentiful Penalties?

There are few things more dramatic in football than a penalty. They’re great fun for the neutral, and as anyone who watched Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal will agree, can produce tremendous debate.

In fact, we’re so eager to see penalties that you can’t see a ball deflect off any part of a defender these days without it being followed by screams for a penalty. If we shout loudly enough, we’ll convince the referee and/or VAR that a chest and an arm are basically the same thing.

MD 20 saw six penalties awarded. Half of them came in the 2-2 draw at Craven Cottage between Fulham and Ipswich Town, with Raúl Jiménez converting twice either side of Liam Delap’s successful effort for the visitors. There were just two minutes between Fulham’s first penalty and Ipswich’s spot-kick, the shortest gap between two penalty goals in a single half of a Premier League game since Opta have exact goal times in the competition (from 2006-07).

For Jiménez, it took him to 10 out of 10 penalties taken and scored in the Premier League with Wolves and Fulham. Only Cole Palmer (12/12) and Yaya Toure (11/11) have scored more of players to have a 100% success rate in the competition.

There were also spot-kicks awarded to Brentford, Brighton and Liverpool, also each scored by Bryan Mbeumo, João Pedro and Mohamed Salah.

It wasn’t the most penalties on a matchday in the Premier League this season, though. There were seven awarded on MD 13, with all seven scored.

There have been 46 penalties awarded in the Premier League in 2024-25, an average of 0.23 per game. While you might think after a weekend of six being given that it might be rather a lot, it’s actually the lowest average since 2017-18 (0.21 per game).

That means it’s the lowest average since the introduction of VAR to the Premier League, with 0.24 being awarded in the 2019-20 season, a record 0.33 in 2020-21, 0.27 in 2021-22, 0.26 in 2022-23 and 0.28 last season.

Has the bar been raised for what should be given as a penalty? Is the VAR intervening less? Are defenders being more careful in the penalty area? Or is it simple variance?

Whatever the reason, we’re seeing fewer goals from the spot compared to last season. Not only were more penalties given, but a higher percentage were scored. In fact, 2023-24 saw a record for the Premier League for percentage of penalties scored.

This season, 82.6% of penalties have found the net (38 of 46), down from a competition record 89.7% last season (96 of 107). However, it’s still more than any other season since 2013-14 (83.9%).

We might be seeing fewer penalties, but it’s still a treat when they arrive. Unless you’re a goalkeeper who concedes a Panenka and you just want to walk off the pitch and go home.

VIZ – Bruno Back to His Best?

Bruno Fernandes chances created vs Liverpool 5 Jan 2025

Few people gave Manchester United much of a chance when they went to Liverpool to take on the Premier League leaders.

But lo and behold, Ruben Amorim’s side found a performance just when they needed one, ending a run of four defeats by earning a credible 2-2 draw at Anfield.

It wasn’t just a hard-working defensive performance; United threatened at the other end too, scoring twice and almost winning it in the closing seconds only for Harry Maguire to shoot over the bar.

Bruno Fernandes has come in for some criticism this season, along with almost everyone connected to Man Utd in a campaign to forget to this point, but he returned from suspension to put in one of his best performances in a long time.

Fernandes created four chances in the game, the most by a Manchester United player in a Premier League match at Anfield that Opta has on record (since 2003-04).

That included his assist for Lisandro Martínez’s opener, while two of his corner-kicks also found teammates for opportunities.

It wasn’t unfair to suggest his performance was a change in form for Fernandes, who has seen a dip in his creativity this season.

Since his Premier League debut on 1 February 2020, he has created 490 chances, with 379 from open play, by far the most for both in that time.

Not including his first half-season in 2019-20, Fernandes has always averaged at least 2.6 chances created per 90 minutes, and 2.2 open-play chances per 90. Even after his impressive showing at Anfield his per-90 minute rates are at 2.5 chances created and 1.8 open-play chances this season.

If Sunday was a sign that the Portuguese maestro is getting back to his best, that could be a very helpful catalyst for Man Utd to make a better fist of the second half of their campaign.

QUIZ – Isak’s Run, Coufal’s Red Face, and Southampton’s Struggles

We hope you enjoyed our bumper 12-question quiz last week. We’re back to just five this week, but boy, what a five they are! Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Aleksander Isak has now scored in seven consecutive Premier League matches for Newcastle United, becoming the third player to do so for the Magpies after who?

2. Everton failed to register a single shot on target in their 1-0 loss at Bournemouth, just the second time they haven’t tested the opposition goalkeeper in a Premier League match this season. Who else did Sean Dyche’s men record zero shots on target against?

3. Vladimír Coufal’s own goal in West Ham’s 4-1 defeat at Manchester City was the 50th conceded by the Hammers in the Premier League, the third side to reach that total behind which two teams?

4. Southampton have won just six points from their opening 20 Premier League matches this season (W1 D3 L16), equalling the worst points tally by a side at this stage of the campaign in the competition. Who else only managed six points from their first 20 EPL games in the 2005-06 season?

5. Lisandro Martínez’s goal for Manchester United in their 2-2 draw with Liverpool was their first at Anfield since who scored in a 3-1 defeat back in December 2018?

Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Steve P, who asks: “What is the most shots a team has had in a Premier League game without scoring?”

Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to editors@theanalyst.com and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.

Answer:

Since our records began (2003-04), the answer is Chelsea, who attempted a whopping 39 shots against West Ham in January 2014 but could only draw 0-0.

It was a similar story for Manchester United in October 2016 when they were held 0-0 by Burnley at Old Trafford despite having 38 attempts at the visitors’ goal.

That came just over 10 years after United’s goalless draw at home to Sunderland that saw them try 36 times to break the deadlock in April 2006.

At the other end of the spectrum, West Brom are the only team in Premier League history on record to score without having a single shot in a game. They drew 1-1 away at Manchester City in December 2004 despite not attempting one effort at goal, scoring thanks to an own goal by, yes, Richard Dunne.

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Quiz Answers

1. Aleksander Isak has now scored in seven consecutive Premier League matches for Newcastle United, becoming the third player to do so for the Magpies after who?

Alan Shearer (September-November 1996) and Joe Willock (April-May 2021)

Arsenal (0-0 draw in December)

3. Vladimír Coufal’s own goal in West Ham’s 4-1 defeat at Manchester City was the 50th conceded by the Hammers in the Premier League, the third side to reach that total behind which two teams?

Everton (61) and Aston Villa (57)

Sunderland

5. Lisandro Martínez’s goal for Manchester United in their 2-2 draw with Liverpool was their first at Anfield since who scored in a 3-1 defeat back in December 2018?

Jesse Lingard