Pistorius in Kyiv ahead of Trump's return and German vote

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius arrived in Kyiv early on Tuesday, saying he wanted to discuss further European support for Ukraine — with a change of government imminent in the US and likely soon in Germany, too.

"What matters to me is showing with this visit that we continue to support Ukraine actively," Pistorius told the German dpa news agency on arrival. 

He said he also wanted to get a clearer picture of both the situation on the front lines and Ukraine's military industrial capabilities.

Pistorius' time in his post could be limited, depending on the German election outcome next month, but he has voiced a desire for another term if possibleImage: Heiko Becker/REUTERS

'Group of Five' talks with UK, France, Italy and Poland first

The previous day, before boarding the overnight train from Poland to Ukraine, Pistorius met with his counterparts from Poland, the UK, France and Italy in Warsaw. 

These five countries, comprising some of Europe's most significant militaries, are seeking to reassure Kyiv of continued European support — whatever Donald Trump's inauguration in the US next week might bring.

The quintet have been meeting regularly in various capacities in recent weeks. 

"It is a signal that Germany, as the largest NATO member in Europe, stands at Ukraine's side," Pistorius said. "Not alone, but rather with the Group of Five, and many other allies." 

The five foreign ministers agreed on a desire to strengthen Ukraine's own military industrial capacities, for instance making ammunition and drones. 

"If the money is there, if the armaments production capacities are there, then Ukraine would be the fastest of anyone to provide its own troops with materiel and weapons," Pistorius said while still in Poland. 

Change of government also looming in Germany, if perhaps not in Ukraine policy

Tuesday's visit could be Pistorius' last to Ukraine as defense minister, although he has voiced a desire to remain in his post in a future German government after February 23's elections. 

For a time, the Social Democrat politician was even treated as a potential alternative to run for chancellor next month, in place of incumbent Olaf Scholz, given the SPD's struggles in the polls. 

Eventually, Pistorius said he had no interest in doing so, and the SPD confirmed Scholz would run. 

Their center-left party is currently polling third overall in most surveys — having never finished outside the top two in a federal election in post-war Germany — behind the center-right Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The Christian Democrats have positioned themselves as staunch Ukraine supporters while leading the opposition since Russia's 2022 invasion, often criticizing the current coalition in Berlin for not doing enough.

So, while a change of personnel is likely, a wholesale change of the German approach to Ukraine might not be as likely as it appears in Washington.

Pistorius has warned against reducing support for Ukraine during the German campaign, rather more vocally than some SPD allies including Scholz. 

"If we do that tomorrow, the day after tomorrow it would be the end of Ukraine: a free, sovereign, democratic country," he said. "And who would be next?" 

msh/kb (AFP, dpa)