By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-22 09:29:50 | Updated at 2026-06-22 16:10:51
7 hours ago
Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo will be looking to step things up against Uzbekistan after a disappointing opening World Cup draw with DR Congo. Look ahead to the Group K contest with our Portugal vs Uzbekistan prediction and preview.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan: The Key Insights
- Portugal are rated as the clear favourites by the Opta supercomputer, given a win probability of 78.0% compared to Uzbekistan’s 8.0%.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has failed to score in each of his last 10 major tournament appearances.
- Uzbekistan’s xG of 1.16 in their 3-1 defeat to Colombia was the highest by a tournament debutant since Slovakia in 2010.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal will feel they have a point to prove when they face Uzbekistan at Houston Stadium in their second Group K match at the 2026 World Cup.
Roberto Martinez’s star-studded side are tipped by many to be among those challenging in the latter stages to lift the trophy at the New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19.
However, they started in pretty underwhelming fashion, playing out a 1-1 draw against DR Congo.
João Neves‘ sixth-minute goal proved to be Portugal’s only shot on target in the game (one fewer than DR Congo), and they also finished with a lower xG (0.65 to 0.87), as Yoane Wissa’s equaliser left the European giants frustrated.
Ronaldo has, typically, been the topic of much discussion, and none of his three shots managed to hit the target.
The 41-year-old has now failed to score in each of his last 10 major tournament appearances (World Cup and European Championship). That is despite the Al Nassr striker attempting 33 shots and amassing an xG of 4.5 in those games.
Moreover, excluding penalties, Ronaldo has gone 13 appearances without a major tournament goal, registering 42 non-penalty shots worth 4.5 non-penalty xG in those outings.
The draw with DR Congo means Portugal could now fail to win both of their opening two matches of a World Cup campaign for just the second time, previously doing so in 2014 – a 4-0 loss to Germany and a 2-2 draw with the USA – which was also the last time they failed to progress from the group stage.
Their opening game was their 36th World Cup match, with Portugal recording their highest-ever possession (75.4%), passes (783), and passing accuracy (92.5%) in a game at the finals.
However, their shot count of seven was their joint-lowest, and they were the first side on record (from 1966) to face more shots than they had themselves (seven to eight) despite having 70%+ possession in a World Cup match.
Vitinha completed more passes (121) than any other player on MD1 of this year’s World Cup. It was also the most ever by a Portugal player in a single game at the finals, surpassing Adrien Silva’s 101 against Iran in 2018.
Uzbekistan suffered a 3-1 setback to Colombia in their first-ever World Cup match, seriously denting their chances of reaching the last 32.
It means Fabio Cannavaro’s side have now lost three consecutive matches, having been beaten 2-0 by Canada and 2-1 by Netherlands in warm-up fixtures for World Cup 2026.
Against Colombia, Uzbekistan recorded an expected goals tally of 1.16, which represents the highest by a nation in their first-ever World Cup match since Slovakia against New Zealand in 2010 (1.63).
It is also the highest by a debuting Asian team since Kuwait against Czechoslovakia in 1982 (1.56).
The average start distance of Uzbekistan’s open-play sequences against Colombia was 33.6 metres from their own goal – the third-lowest of any side on MD1 of this year’s World Cup, ahead of only Cape Verde (25.1m) and Australia (31.6m). They are unlikely to be much higher against a Portugal side eager to get their first win of the tournament.
As a player, Uzbekistan manager Cannavaro won all three of his matches against Portugal, and his second (and final) Italy goal was also scored against them in a 2008 friendly.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Head-to-Head
This game represents the first-ever encounter between Portugal and Uzbekistan.
Portugal are winless in their last two World Cup matches against teams from the AFC confederation, a 1-1 draw against Iran in 2018, and a 2-1 defeat to South Korea in 2022.
Uzbekistan have only won once in their last 23 contests with UEFA nations in all competitions, drawing 10 and losing 12 of the others. That win was a 2-0 friendly victory over Kazakhstan in November 2022.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Prediction
Portugal may not have made the start they were looking for against DR Congo, but the Opta supercomputer still expects them to emerge victorious here.
Indeed, they have a 78.0% win probability in contrast to 8.0% for Uzbekistan. The draw is rated as a 14.1% shot.
In terms of the competition overall, Portugal have a 41.4% likelihood of topping Group K, while their chances of making the last 32 are 92.2%. They also retain a 5.3% probability of winning the tournament.
For Uzbekistan, the outlook on all fronts is not especially positive after that MD1 defeat to Colombia.
They have just a 0.8% chance of topping the pool, and only a 23.7% probability of making the knockout stages.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Squads
Portugal: Diogo Costa, José Sá, Rui Silva, Nélson Semedo, Rúben Dias, Tomás Araújo, Diogo Dalot, Renato Veiga, Gonçalo Inácio, João Cancelo, Nuno Mendes, Matheus Nunes, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, João Neves, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Samú Costa, Cristiano Ronaldo, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, Trincão, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, Gonçalo Guedes, Francisco Conceição.
Uzbekistan: Utkir Yusupov, Abduvokhid Nematov, Botirali Ergashev, Abdukodir Khusanov, Khojiakbar Alijonov, Farrukh Sayfiev, Rustam Ashurmatov, Sherzod Nasrullaev, Umar Eshmurodov, Bekhruz Karimov, Avazbek O’lmasaliev, Jakhongir Urozov, Akmal Mozgovoy, Otabek Shukurov, Jamshid Iskanderov, Odiljon Khamrobekov, Jaloliddin Masharipov, Oston Urunov, Dostonbek Khamdamov, Abdulla Abdullaev, Aziz G’aniev, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Sherzod Esanov, Eldor Shomurodov, Azizbek Amonov, Igor Sergeev.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Predicted Lineups
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