Premier League Fixture Difficulty: Rúben Amorim Faces a Daunting Start as Man Utd Manager

With Rúben Amorim having been announced as Manchester United’s new manager, we analyse the fixture difficulty of his opening slate of Premier League games.

Manchester United have moved swiftly in replacing Erik ten Hag, with Rúben Amorim appointed on Friday as their new manager.

The 39-year-old has earned himself a stellar reputation for overseeing a significant transformation at Sporting CP, ending their 19-year wait for a Primeira Liga title in 2021 before winning it again last season.

Amorim has become one of the most-coveted coaches in Europe, with the former Portugal international linked to Liverpool, Barcelona and Chelsea – among others – this year alone. Similarly, reports in the past month suggested he was considered among the frontrunners to replace Pep Guardiola at Manchester City either next year or in 2026 after Sporting’s director of football, Hugo Viana, agreed a deal to take up a comparable role at the Premier League champions.

But United have persuaded Amorim to move to Old Trafford, replacing Ten Hag after last Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at West Ham led to the Dutchman’s dismissal the following day with the club languishing 14th in the Premier League table.

Amorim’s appointment comes with a somewhat curious caveat, however. His Sporting contract contains a 30-day notice period, and although United are said to have negotiated that down, their new manager is set to remain in Portugal until the upcoming international break. That leaves Ruud van Nistelrooy in charge for their next three matches.

Nevertheless, the situation does provide Amorim with nearly two weeks of uninterrupted preparation during the international window to start settling in, getting to know some of the players and beginning to get his ideas across – at least to those not away with their national teams.

It also means his first match in charge will be away to Ipswich Town at Portman Road on 24 November. While that may not be seen as a baptism of fire, it’s fair to say his opening weeks in charge promise to be challenging from a fixture difficulty perspective.

We can measure each club’s fixture difficulty over a specific period by looking at their opponents’ ratings in the Opta Power Rankings, a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best.

When we take the average rating of each team’s opponents over a given period, we can then rank clubs in order of – statistically – the trickiest schedules.

Using this method, only five Premier League teams are deemed to have harder run of fixtures than United from the point of Amorim’s first game in charge.

Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

His first home game in the league will be against Everton, and then come two massive games in a fairly short period of time.

United are away to Arsenal on 4 December and then go to Man City in the derby 11 days later – sandwiched between is the visit of Nottingham Forest, though on current form they also have the potential to be tricky customers.

The average rating of Amorim’s first five opponents is 89.7. Only Southampton (91.5), Forest (91.2), Fulham (91.0), Everton (90.2) and Crystal Palace (89.9) have statistically more challenging sequences of games over that period.

Of course, a lot can happen in the interim. Let’s not forget, we are looking at least three weeks into the future here. By the time United play City on December 15, Guardiola’s men could have lost three or four on the bounce; it’s not likely, sure, but we don’t know what kind of form teams will be in down the line.

Nevertheless, there are some real tests awaiting Amorim during his first weeks in charge. Given there’s a distinct possibility United will be trying to adapt to a new playing model at the same time, the players look set for a thorough examination.

But then again, Amorim will relish such a challenge, and after those initial five fixtures, another difficult trip awaits not too far down the road.

That’s because United face Liverpool at Anfield in early January, meaning Amorim will have to contend with away matches against each of last season’s top three in his first 10 games as a Premier League manager. Ipswich away might not be the hardest start, but that’s an unforgiving run of fixtures that promises a thorough test for the new man.

When we look at the average opponent rating across the first 10 matchdays of Amorim’s reign, United’s comes down slightly from the 89.7 over the opening five to 88.5 – that makes it the ninth-hardest schedule.

Jonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

So, despite those daunting trips to the Emirates Stadium, the Etihad Stadium and Anfield, there are clearly some rather winnable matches.

Not only does that sequence begin with a game against promoted opposition, Amorim’s 10th Premier League game is at home to Southampton, while Bournemouth and Newcastle also visit Old Trafford in that time. Their other away game in that run is at Wolves, who – like Saints – have endured a very difficult start to the season.

Again, it’s important to acknowledge how much can change between now and some of these games, of which the furthest away occur in late December and early January. A lot of football is to be played before then, and not just in the Premier League. Form will change, players will get injured, others will return from injury – we could even see some more managerial changes and then there’s the potential for the classic ‘new manager bounce’.

But there’s no question that Amorim’s introduction to the Premier League promises to be a challenging one.

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