By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-01-17 14:26:52 | Updated at 2025-01-30 08:34:21
1 week ago
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 22
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches, with the league table having now firmly taken shape as we move into the second half of the season.
Liverpool are four points clear of Arsenal with a game in hand at the top of the standings, while Leicester City and Southampton are struggling significantly at the bottom.
Matchday 22 will see matches spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Leaders Liverpool are away to Brentford after the Bees held Manchester City to a dramatic draw in their midweek contest.
Saturday’s action also includes a big match between Arsenal and Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium, while Man City are away to Ipswich Town in one of four matches on Sunday.
The matchweek concludes with two out-of-form teams doing battle at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea face Wolves on Monday night.
Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 22: The Quick Hits
- Man City are predicted to win away to Ipswich and bounce back from their midweek setback.
- The Opta supercomputer is confident Arsenal will see off Aston Villa, with their title rivals Liverpool also expected to triumph at Brentford.
- Chelsea, Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest are all backed for home wins this week, with Enzo Maresca’s Blues being our predictive model’s most confident pick of MD 22, as they face Wolves.
In-form Newcastle United are at home to Bournemouth in Saturday’s early kick-off, looking to continue their nine-match winning streak in all competitions and set a new club record for consecutive wins.
The Opta prediction model makes them favourites to do so against the Cherries, with a 55.8% chance of clinching three points, while Bournemouth’s chances are down at 22.3%.
Andoni Iraola’s side are on a record unbeaten streak of their own though, going without defeat in their last nine in the competition after a 2-2 draw with Chelsea. But to keep that going they will have to stop a rampant Alexander Isak, who has scored in eight consecutive league games to surge into golden boot contention.
Leaders Liverpool then travel to Brentford looking for their first Premier League win in 2025 after two draws so far. Having come from behind to draw with Nottingham Forest on Wednesday, the Reds have gained the most points from losing positions in the Premier League this term (14).
Brentford, meanwhile, recorded an impressive comeback draw of their own against Manchester City. They are sure to be no pushovers, and Liverpool will need to stay alert – the Bees have scored seven top-flight goals from the 90th minute onwards this campaign, the most in the division.
Despite that, Arne Slot’s men are expected to claim three points for the first time this calendar year, being assigned a 60.1% win probability to Brentford’s 19.2%.
Leicester City (27.5%) host Fulham (47.7%), with the Foxes in desperate need of a positive result having lost their last six in a row.
The Foxes have won just one of their last 10 league games against sides from London (two draws, seven losses), conceding 2.1 goals on average per match during that run, and go into the match as underdogs to get a much-needed three points.
Fulham lost their first game since November last time out against West Ham, ending what had been their longest unbeaten run in the competition (eight games) since December 2008 (a run of nine).
West Ham and Graham Potter are looking to build on that win over Fulham, with Crystal Palace up next, though the new manager will be looking for a marked improvement in the final third for a contest that looks extremely tough to call.
The Hammers managed just four shots against Fulham, scoring with all three of their efforts on target.
Oliver Glasner’s Eagles have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games (four wins, five draws), with their current six-match unbeaten run on the road (three wins, three draws) the club’s longest in the top flight since 1992.
West Ham have a win probability of 38.3%, with Palace only just behind on 35.0%. At a rating of 26.7%, the draw is more likely in this fixture than it is any other across Matchday 22.
In Saturday’s late kick-off, Arsenal will be hoping to move within touching distance of Liverpool when they welcome Aston Villa to the Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League games, with a morale-boosting north London derby win over Tottenham the exact response Mikel Arteta would have wanted after their FA Cup elimination at the hands of Manchester United.
Villa won their first league away game since October when they edged past Everton on Wednesday, ending a run of five successive defeats on the road. They have also won their first two top-flight games of a calendar year for the first time since 2009.
However, they should not be hugely optimistic about extending that run, as the supercomputer has Arsenal as healthy favourites at 61.2%, with Villa’s hopes of an upset sitting at 18.4%.
That is partly because Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 13 home league games (10 wins, three draws) since a 2-0 defeat to Villa last April. The Gunners last had a longer run without defeat at the Emirates between in 2018-19 when they were under the stewardship of current Villa boss Unai Emery.
Into Sunday’s fixtures, and two out-of-form teams meet at Goodison Park as David Moyes’ Everton host Tottenham, who have gone five league games without a win to pile further pressure on Ange Postecoglou.
The supercomputer struggles to split these teams, with Tottenham narrowly favoured, given a 39.2% chance of victory to Everton’s 34.4%, while 26.4% of pre-match simulations were drawn.
Everton versus Tottenham at Goodison is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 17 of the 32 meetings finishing level. Each of the last five such clashes have been drawn, with no exact fixture ever finishing level six times in a row in competition history.
Amad Diallo’s late hat-trick fired Manchester United (44.8%) to a 3-1 win over Southampton last time out, and the Red Devils will look to back that triumph up against Thursday’s other victors, Brighton and Hove Albion (30.1%), who ended a long winless run by triumphing at Ipswich.
Man Utd have lost five of their last six Premier League games against Brighton, including both meetings at Old Trafford in that run. Only against Man City (twice) have they lost three in a row at home in the competition.
There has never been a draw in 15 Premier League meetings between the teams, with only United versus Wigan Athletic (16) being played more often without ever finishing level.
After their recent improvement and with home advantage, the supercomputer is leaning in United’s direction for this one, although not overwhelmingly so with their poor recent record against the Seagulls likely to be fresh in many of the squad’s memory.
Nottingham Forest may have seen their winning run halted at six league games, but their performance in a 1-1 draw with leaders Liverpool demonstrated their UEFA Champions League credentials going into their next match at home to Southampton.
Since the start of December, no team has earned more Premier League points than Forest (19), despite Nuno Espírito Santo’s men losing their first match in this sequence.
Their opponents Saints are winless in their last 23 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four (eight draws, 15 defeats), since a 1-0 win against Liverpool in January 2021.
Nuno’s hosts are given an impressive 63.9% chance of victory, with Saints winning in just 16.2% of scenarios.
Sunday’s late kick-off sees Manchester City visit Ipswich Town, with Pep Guardiola’s men still reeling from Brentford’s late fightback in midweek.
They are heavy favourites to bounce back with a 66.5% chance of victory despite their poor mid-season form. City’s strong record against promoted teams may work in their favour, as the champions have won 20 of 21 Premier League games against promoted teams since losing 2-1 to Leeds United in April 2021, the exception being a 1-1 draw at Forest in February 2023.
Ipswich are only given a 14.5% chance of victory and would likely be glad if their 19.0% chance of earning a draw comes in, having suffered a meek 2-0 defeat to Brighton that ended their recent momentum.
The Tractor Boys are winless in their last six Premier League games against the reigning champions (one draw, five losses), conceding 21 goals in those matches while scoring only two.
Matchday 22 is rounded off at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea host Wolves. The Blues are winless in five league games, their longest such run in a single campaign since a stretch of seven between March and May 2023.
With a 68.8% win probability, they are strong favourites to see off Wolves, and the most confident supercomputer prediction this week.
Wolves have lost both of their Premier League games in 2025 by a three-goal margin, suffering convincing defeats to Forest and Newcastle.
The last side to lose their first three top-flight games of a calendar year by three or more goals was Forest back in 1910 (three 4-1 defeats) and Chelsea’s 6-2 win in August’s return fixture at Molineux might have Wolves fearing another heavy loss.
Vitor Pereira’s men are given just a 13.8% chance of victory, so this could be just the fixture Chelsea need to get their top-four challenge back on track.
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