Reform UK’s poll surge confirms ‘new era of politics’ - inside the data that shows Farage closing in on power

Polling result via region shows Reform has eclipsed the Conservatives as opposition in five of seven regions

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The result means Reform has recorded a ten-point bump since the election, with Labour crashing nine points.

Using the electoral calculus method of generating Westminster seats, the poll would see Reform win 106 seats if a General Election was held tomorrow.

Swathes of seats would be won across the East of England, the Midlands and perhaps most surprisingly Wales where Labour has won a majority of Westminster seats for 114 years.

Indeed, most gains would come from Labour who would lose 125 seats. The Conservatives and SNP would gain seven each and the Lib Dems five, according to the model.

Reform’s surge is being partly spearheaded by youthful voters. The party is far more popular among 18–24-year-olds than the Conservatives with Farage attracting 19 per cent of the group.

The Tories only polled a paltry five per cent, highlighting the scale of Badenoch’s challenge in making the Tory brand palatable again for that section of society.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Reform also performed strongly in the 65+ age group, polling 30 per cent.

This was the only group the Conservatives managed to win with 35 per cent of the vote.

Labour could only muster 14 per cent after a series of unpopular decisions affecting the age group, including stripping the winter fuel payment from nine million pensioners and removing the bus fare cap.

YouGov’s data also revealed Reform to be the most popular party among men in Britain.

Nearly a third (30 per cent) of men said they would vote Reform, compared to just 19 per cent of women.

In comparison, only 20 per cent of men said they would vote Conservative. 25 per cent of women would also opt for Badenoch.

Nigel Farage speaking at Reform UK's Welsh Conference last year

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Reform, who won no seats in Scotland or Wales, are surging in both regions after years of left wing regional devolved governments.

In Wales, Reform is on 25 per cent, three behind leaders Labour, whereas in Scotland the party is five points behind Labour.

Elsewhere, YouGov found the Conservatives to be down two points, and the Liberal Democrats and Green party up one point each.

Reform UK Chairman, Zia Yusuf said: “History is being made as the century-long stranglehold the two old parties have had on Britain is finally broken.

“Our membership continues to surge and we have now lead the Tories in the last three national opinion polls.

“We have all the momentum in British politics and before long we will see Nigel Farage as our Prime Minister.”