By The American Tribune | Created at 2026-08-19 10:16:53 | Updated at 2026-08-20 05:29:16
19 hours ago
Republicans received encouraging election news Tuesday as Democratic socialist candidates showed serious weakness with Black voters in several pivotal battlegrounds. The most immediate trouble is in Michigan, where Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is running well behind previous Democratic nominees among one of his party’s most important constituencies. Similar warning signs have appeared in Wisconsin and other races featuring socialist candidates. The erosion has helped turn Michigan’s Senate contest into a toss-up.
President Donald Trump began cutting into traditionally Democratic voting blocs during the 2024 election, increasing his support among Hispanic, young and Black voters. Trump received 41% of the Hispanic vote, an improvement of six points from 2020, while his share among young voters rose ten points to 46%. He also received 15% of the Black vote, seven points more than he won four years earlier. Those gains helped Trump reclaim Michigan and five other states carried by former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Democrats appear to have regained some ground with younger and Hispanic voters as the 2026 midterms approach, but Black voters have not returned to the party at comparable levels. Recent polling found that only 69% of Black voters plan to support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district. That is 21 points below Biden’s share of the Black vote during the 2020 presidential election. One in five Black voters also continues to approve of Trump.
The most dramatic weakness has emerged in Michigan, where El-Sayed is challenging Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers for an open Senate seat. According to the latest Fox News Power Rankings report, only 75% of Black Michigan voters currently support El-Sayed. That is 18 points below Biden’s 2020 performance with the same group. Rogers leads El-Sayed 51% to 47% in the latest Fox News survey, although the four-point difference remains within the poll’s margin of error.
El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination after running on a far-left platform that included Medicare for All and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He also secured support from Senator Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Democratic Socialists of America activists. His support falls to 69% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who do not identify with the DSA, compared with 98% among DSA supporters. 30% of Democrats surveyed said they were concerned that El-Sayed’s positions were too extreme.
The problem extends beyond El-Sayed’s general-election polling. He performed poorly in Black-majority areas such as Detroit during the Democratic primary, while Wisconsin democratic socialist Francesca Hong underperformed in Milwaukee. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani also struggled with Black voters during his 2025 campaign before launching what was described as a “Black media blitz.” A separate national survey found that only 36% of Black Americans held a favorable opinion of the Democratic Socialists of America, although Fox cautioned that Black-voter subgroup results carry larger margins of error.
Democratic candidates in other battlegrounds are also running behind Biden’s previous performance with Black voters. Senator Jon Ossoff is ten points below Biden’s 2020 support in Georgia, while the Democratic nominee in North Carolina is seven points behind that benchmark. Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is running approximately even with Biden’s Black support, making Michigan the clearest case of erosion surrounding a socialist nominee. Roughly one-quarter of Black Michigan voters currently do not support El-Sayed.
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Fox consequently moved the Michigan Senate election into its toss-up category, giving Republicans an improved opportunity to flip the seat previously held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. The latest rankings contain six Senate races in which neither party holds an advantage, leaving an unusually broad range of possible outcomes. Under one scenario, Democrats could finish with 53 seats; under another, Republicans could retain their Senate majority without losing a single seat. Michigan absentee voting begins September 24, giving El-Sayed little time to rebuild the Democratic coalition he will need in November.
