Rúben Amorim’s Man Utd To-Do List

By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-14 12:44:47 | Updated at 2024-11-21 15:48:03 1 week ago
Truth

Manchester United often looked lost during the final months of Erik ten Hag’s time in charge. Now, new head coach Rúben Amorim has to bring some direction and make bold choices.


After a rather unusual mid-season notice period, Manchester United have a new head coach, with Rúben Amorim officially in place after arriving in England on Monday.

The Portuguese coach was appointed at the start of November but continued at Sporting CP until the international break, with Ruud van Nistelrooy – who’s since departed Old Trafford – taking charge of four United matches following the dismissal of Erik ten Hag.

United’s choice of Amorim is an interesting one, partly due to the system he played at Sporting. There’s an expectation he’ll oversee considerable change at the club; not necessarily in terms of success, that’s impossible to guarantee. But rather the way he’s set his team up in the past could hint at several players needing to adapt, or leave altogether.

Although Amorim must wait until 24 November for his first match, away at Ipswich Town, there’s plenty of work to be done in the meantime. So, what will be the key challenges of his first couple of months in the job?

Outline and Begin Establishing an Identity

Ten Hag ultimately lost his job because of results, but for much of his time at the club, it was difficult to pinpoint what sort of team he wanted them to be. That might have been overlooked for longer if they won games regularly, but they didn’t.

For many fans, the most disappointing aspect of Ten Hag’s time in charge was the fact United didn’t really have a discernible identity. This was difficult to accept because among the main reasons the club hired him in the first place was the entertaining style of play associated with his Ajax team.

Ten Hag said in his very first press conference at the club that Ajax’s way of playing was what resonated with him most, but he’d have to let United’s players dictate their brand of football.

What eventually followed was a rather muddled system. He wanted them playing out from the back and able to control possession while also being devastating in transition. They had to press high with intensity while also defending quite deep because they didn’t have enough pace at the back to push the defensive line all the way up.

There were positive signs in his first season, undoubtedly aided by Marcus Rashford’s stunning form, but the disconnects in the team contributed to their midfield being chronically exposed last term. In turn, only relegated Sheffield United (678) conceded more shots than Man Utd (667) in 2023-24.

Man Utd shots faced

It’s a valid point that United suffered with a defensive injury crisis last season, and in 2024-25 they’ve generally looked a bit less open. But there was always a feeling Ten Hag refused to help himself as he resisted prioritising solidity.

Imposing an identity on a team isn’t simple. The coach needs absolute clarity in their ideas and instructions, while similar openness with the supporters will help Amorim ease fears of confusion left over from Ten Hag’s reign.

The early signs are promising in that Amorim has already said United can’t be as defensive as his Sporting team, but arguably cohesion and understanding are more important than brazen attacking football.

Give Rasmus Højlund the Support and Service Required

The consensus seems to be that, if there’s one United player who could be transformed by Amorim’s arrival, it’s Rasmus Højlund.

Now, part of this comes down to Amorim’s success with Viktor Gyökeres, who’s become one of the most-coveted strikers in Europe at Sporting. Of course, they’re different players and just because the coach had joy developing one forward in the Primeira Liga doesn’t necessarily mean Højlund’s suddenly going to take the English top flight by storm.

However, it’s difficult to escape the feeling Højlund’s been partially mismanaged at United. While he does have a pretty broad skillset, more and more it seems the Denmark international has become pigeonholed into a kind of target man role.

There have been occasions when he’s done reasonably well in this context. Against Brentford, after a tricky start, he was quite effective; however, in the win over Leicester City at the weekend, Højlund was bullied by Wout Faes and Jannik Vestergaard.

Most would agree that Højlund’s biggest strengths are his pace and ability on the ball, but lumping long balls up to him and expecting him to pin the centre-back doesn’t really utilise those skills.

Not only does this generally feel detrimental to United’s build-up play, it also focuses his attention away from areas where he’d be likelier to score. It’s not too surprising, then, that Højlund’s only recorded 1.5 shots per 90 minutes since the start of last season; 151 players (minimum 500 minutes played) have averaged more, including deep-lying midfielders like Rodrigo Bentancur (1.7), Casemiro (1.9) and Enzo Fernández (1.7). Similarly, his average of 4.1 touches per 90 in the opposition’s area since the start of last season (minimum 500 mins played) is bettered by 75 forwards and wingers.

Rasmus Hojlund xG

Højlund obviously needs to take some responsibility for this, though he could probably justifiably argue United’s attack isn’t exactly full of creators. While Bruno Fernandes speaks for himself, the likes of Alejandro Garnacho and Marcus Rashford aren’t especially reliable sources of creativity.

If Amorim can get United providing Højlund with service that’s more attuned to his strengths, they could make gains. After all, he may not get many chances, but his shot conversion rate of 25.6% in the Premier League since the start of last season is the 11th best in the division (minimum 500 mins played and 1.0 shots per 90). That’s better than the likes of Erling Haaland (22.2%), Alexander Isak (24%), Diogo Jota (21.8%) and Cole Palmer (20%).

Premier League shots per 90 x shot conversion rateJonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

Who knows, maybe he really doesn’t have what it takes to be a great Manchester United striker. But it doesn’t feel like he’s had the support to prove otherwise yet.

Ensure Bruno Fernandes Remains Influential

When Amorim emerged as United’s primary target to replace Ten Hag, much of the discourse revolved around whether there’d be a place in the team for Fernandes. After all, his usual No.10 role didn’t really exist in Amorim’s Sporting team.

Instead, Amorim’s fluid 3-4-3 formation incorporated either a front three made up of a central striker and two slightly wider forwards – somewhere between wingers and No.10s – or a front two that involved a support striker dropping deep.

At Sporting, one of the No.10s tended to be a more nimble player who’d offer pace, while the other often functioned a little more like a conventional No.10, offering on-ball creativity and a goal threat.

Sporting most common shapesJonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

Now, we have to remember that no one really knows how Amorim will set United up at first. He might actually decide that trying to change too much mid-season would have a negative impact; there might only be subtle alterations until he can bring a few players in.

However, it seems likely Amorim will bring significant tactical changes eventually, and that will probably require Fernandes adapting somewhat, wherever he plays. It certainly doesn’t appear that there’s no place for him, though.

It’s crucial Fernandes’ influence on the team isn’t diminished by whatever changes occur to his role in the short or long-term.

Man Utd sequence involvements 2023-24 and 2024-25

He may not be universally popular, but his importance is unquestionable. There have been few unequivocable success stories with respect to players signed since Sir Alex Ferguson left in 2013, but Fernandes is absolutely one of them.

Since his Premier League debut in February 2020, only Rashford (40) has scored more non-penalty goals for United in the league than Fernandes (36), whereas the Portugal midfielder’s 44 assists in that time is the third most in the competition.

Further to that, Fernandes’ 469 chances created over that time is 78 more than any other player, while his 366 chances created in open play is 82 clear of anyone else. It’s important to highlight here that he’s also played more minutes than every other outfield player bar James Tarkowski in that time, but availability in itself is incredibly valuable as well.

Considering the United squad isn’t exactly flush with exceptional creators, Fernandes is likely to still have a lot of responsibility. Whether that’s in a more disciplined role or one that sees him roaming is for Amorim to determine.

Work Out if There’s a Place for Marcus Rashford or Alejandro Garnacho

The area of the United squad that’s likely to have to adapt the most if Amorim switches to a back three is the wingers.

At Sporting, most of the width in Amorim’s team was provided by wing-backs. That’s not to say the wide forwards never moved out to the flanks, but their responsibilities saw them operating more so in the half spaces than on the touchline.

Sporting CP wing-backsJonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

It just so happens United have several high-profile wingers, and their previous roles may not exist under the new coach.

Garnacho is erratic but clearly a threat in attack, with only Fernandes (0.75) bettering the 20-year-old’s combined non-penalty expected goals + expected assists per 90 across all competitions for United (minimum 160 minutes played) this term.

Rashford can be a gamechanger on his day but hasn’t performed consistently for about 18 months. Amad Diallo has shown signs of promise this season, though he too is yet to show consistency. And then there’s Antony, who it would appear is a lost cause.

The added issue for the wingers is the fact the places they could now be fighting for might also be contested by the likes of Fernandes and Mason Mount, who arguably played the best football of his career in a similar wide No.10 role under Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea.

Essentially, there won’t be room for many of them if Amorim sets his team up like he did at Sporting. It could be that Rashford ends up being used centrally more often if Amorim is unconvinced by Højlund and Joshua Zirkzee, though it’s widely accepted that isn’t his best position.

Of the wingers, Amad is arguably the likeliest to carve out a role for himself as one of the wide No.10s. He’s quick, agile, an intelligent link player and is tidier in tight spaces than Rashford or Garnacho.

Uncertainty appears to await Rashford and Garnacho in particular, as it’s also difficult to imagine them being repurposed as wing-backs; such a conversion probably represents Antony’s only hope of salvation, however.

Find a Left-Back

That brings us on nicely to the issue of who’ll play as the left wing-back in the event Amorim does turn to a back three.

This season, Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui – both of whom are right-footed right-backs – have had to share responsibility at left-back, while Lisandro Martínez has filled in occasionally. It’s been a problem area for the best part of 18 months, with Luke Shaw missing the majority of last season and Tyrell Malacia absent for its entirety.

Diogo Dalot positions
Noussair Mazraoui positions

There was at least good news on Tuesday as Malacia played for the Under-21s having not featured competitively for United since the 2022-23 season. But expecting too much of him given how long he has been out would be unwise.

Shaw’s situation remains unclear even if he was one of the players photographed greeting Amorim in the gym earlier this week. It seems likely he’ll be absent for a little while yet at least.

So, Amorim’s options for the time being will probably continue to be limited. Given how important the wing-backs were in his Sporting team, this could be a setback.

Sporting CP wing-backs in Premeira LigaJonathan Manuel / Data Analyst

Realistically, Dalot or Mazraoui will likely continue filling in, though Amorim could be brave and consider highly-rated 17-year-old youth player Harry Amass. Or, as mentioned before, might he try converting Antony into a left-sided wing-back?

Granted, the Brazilian’s seemingly petulant reaction to briefly filling in as an emergency left-back under Ten Hag against Liverpool in March would suggest that mightn’t be a change the player embraces – though that’s probably the only way he gets any minutes.

The early weeks and months of Amorim’s reign will ultimately provide an insight to his vision for the club and squad. The players would be naïve to not expect significant change.


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