The 2026 midterm election is being misread as a popularity contest between two parties. The problem for Democrats and Republicans is that it’s not.
Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about six points. In the race to control the U.S. House, models give them a strong chance to take the chamber. The U.S. Senate ratings have pulled several red-state races into toss-up territory, which doesn’t necessarily give Democrats control, but it makes it a closer fight than previously thought.









