South Africa chairs G20: Ambitious plans, geopolitical woes

Finally, it's South Africa's turn. The country took the G20 chair in December, the last remaining member to hold the presidency.

The G20, formed in 1999, is a group of 19 of the world's largest economies, plus the European Union, that meets regularly to coordinate global policies on trade, health, climate and other issues. The informal forum does not have a permanent secretariat.

After granting the African Union membership in 2023, the G20 will now finally arrive on African soil. South Africa will host around 130 meetings and forums, leading up to the summit of the heads of state and governments in November 2025 in Johannesburg.

G20 premiere on African soil

Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive for the South African Institute of International Affairs, told DW that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will likely continue working on the goals that previous presidencies have outlined.

"While this is a first African presidency, it really builds on many of the issues that the Indonesians, the Indians and Brazilians identified as priorities. And many of these overlap with what our priorities for Africa are," she said. "Clearly there'll be a distinct African flavor."

The G20 will attract attention all over the continent because South Africa will seek consensus with other African governments, according to Melanie Müller, an expert on the region at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP. 

Climate, debt, justice — and some other African priorities

South Africa's G20 agenda puts emphasis on a number of issues that also matter to the whole continent.

"The climate change crisis is worsening," Ramaphosa said in early December, when he unveiled his G20 priorities. "Across the world, billions of people are affected by underdevelopment, inequality, poverty, hunger and unemployment. The outlook for global economic growth remains subdued, and many economies carry the burden of unsustainable levels of debt."

Africa is already experiencing a surge in extreme weather events, like this flood in Nigeria in SeptemberImage: Ahmed Kingimi/REUTERS

The South African G20 presidency aims to move the economy toward technologies which are less harmful to the planet's climate. The country has witnessed a rapid expansion of solar power — even though the biggest share was delivered by private home owners who want to escape the hardships of blackouts caused by outdated and underserviced energy infrastructure.

Critical minerals a motor for development

The economic transformation also brings a surge in demand for specialist mineral resources, many of which can be found in African locations.

The largest deposit of cobalt, for example, lies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Most is being refined in China, even as the EU and US seek to increase their share of the resource, which is used in batteries for electric vehicles, electronic devices and clean energy technologies.

"We have a very interesting situation developing in some countries," said SWP's Müller, who also researches supply chains. "That is, they're increasingly able to choose their trading partners and are not necessarily dependent only on Chinese agreements."

The situation is giving these countries more room to negotiate for good conditions with other trading partners, Müller explained, which can be seen as a positive.

South Africa contributes substantial amounts of platinum to world marketsImage: Implats via AP/picture alliance

South Africa is also an important mining country itself, digging up substantial amounts of platinum, gold and chrome. Ramaphosa told journalists he wants to use his G20 presidency to "champion the use of critical minerals as an engine for growth and development in Africa."

Building bridges 

In order to achieve these goals, the G20 presidency will need to forge compromises between the different G20 member states.

South Africa — and Ramaphosa himself — have experience with that, said Sidiropoulos. "We've seen that from nearly 30 years ago, when he [Ramaphosa] was instrumental in guiding our 1996 constitution. It's really about building consensus."

South Africa sees its job as one of creating consensus, she continued. "It's about weaving the narrative around priorities in such a way that individual blocs in the G20 are brought together, rather than lost along the way," she said.

This means preventing different members' views on wars in Ukraine or in the Middle East from derailing progress. There's no doubt these conflicts will be discussed at every meeting and will certainly end up, likely in more broad terms, in the final G20 declaration next November, Sidiropoulos predicted.

"But South Africa will certainly not want a situation in which one of the two conflicts becomes the predominant issue on the agenda and overshadows all other issues, ones that are much more important for developing economies," she said.

Since he became president in 2018, Ramaphosa has gained plenty of foreign policy and diplomacy experience, for example, when South Africa hosted the 2023 BRICS summit.

He maintains good relations with Russia despite that country's war in Ukraine. This approach has caused some irritation among European allies. Nonetheless, Ramaphosa is still seen as a reliable partner. Earlier in December. Ramaphosa met with Germany's own president to discuss the G20 agenda.

Will South Africa's G20 presidency be a success?

"You cannot determine the successes of the presidency separately from factors like geopolitics," said Müller, summarizing the previous term chaired by Brazil. Success will also be influenced by [things like] future relations between the US and China."

US President-elect Donald Trump is notorious for torpedoing international collaboration when he sees advantages for his countryImage: Rick Scuteri/AP Photo/picture alliance

Political insecurity is likely to be further exacerbated by Donald Trump's return to the White House. In late November, Trump revealed plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 10%. He also threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all BRICS members, including China and South Africa, should they advance the idea of a new shared currency that moves away from dependence on the US dollar.

Dealing with Trump will also be a more personal challenge for Ramaphosa. During his G20 presidency, the US will be more closely involved than most other member states because the Americans will take on the presidency after South Africa.

This article was originally written in German.